Connect with us

Coronavirus (Covid-19)

Health officials outline estimated daily infections based on 5 different scenarios

Maya Taylor



PHOTO: Flickr

Health officials are using 5 different scenarios, with varying degrees of restrictions, to predict average daily Covid infection numbers in the Thailand, based on the latest rises in new infections over the past month.

The Department of Disease Control and International Health Policy Program agency have based their estimates on 4 main measures in 5 different situations, based on predictive computer modelling. According to a Nation Thailand report, the exercise gives an indication of daily case numbers for the next month.

Scenario 1
No disease control measures: A projected average of 9,140 cases per day, with 1,308 per day the lowest, and 28,678 per day the maximum.

Scenario 2 (the current situation)
With entertainment venues remaining closed in risky provinces: A projected average of 2,996 cases per day, with 817 the lowest, and 7,244 the maximum.

Scenario 3
With entertainment venues closed in risky provinces and changes to individual behaviour: A projected average of 934 cases per day, with 475 the lowest, and a maximum of 1,589.

Scenario 4
With entertainment venues closed in risky provinces, changes to individual behaviour, and a reduction in public gatherings: A projected average of 593 cases per day, with 378 per day the lowest, and a maximum of 857 cases per day.

Scenario 5
With entertainment venues closed in risky provinces, changes to individual behaviour, a reduction in public gatherings, and people working from home: A projected average of 391 cases per day, 303 the lowest, and 484 the maximum.

Meanwhile, Sophon Iamsirithaworn from the Communicable Diseases Division of the Department of Disease Control says infections are currently rising rapidly in many provinces. Most cases have links to entertainment venues, including pubs and karaoke bars.

He says 4 important measures are necessary – particularly over the Songkran holiday this week – if the spread is to be curtailed…

• Social measures: Reduce social gatherings and unnecessary travel between provinces. Community leaders must track and locate people arriving from vulnerable areas and implement preventative measures.

• Public health measures: Proactive screening, separating high-risk and low-risk groups, provide thorough care to reduce illness, and vaccinate people to reduce the severity of the disease.

• Individual adoption of DMHTTA measures – distancing, mask-wearing, hand washing, temperatures checks, testing, apps (ThaiChana and MorChana). Those who visit high-risk venues – particularly nightlife – must strictly self-isolate.

• Organisational measures: Move to homeworking, hold meetings online, and organise learning and training remotely.

SOURCE: Nation Thailand


Get more from The Thaiger

📱 Download our app on Android or iOS
👋 Have your say on our Thailand forums
🔔 Subscribe to our daily email newsletter
📺 Subscribe / Join YouTube for daily shows
👍 Like/Follow us on Facebook
🐦 FOLLOW us on Twitter
📷 FOLLOW us on Instagram


Join the conversation and have your say on Thailand news published on The Thaiger.

Thaiger Talk is our new Thaiger Community where you can join the discussion on everything happening in Thailand right now.

Please note that articles are not posted to the forum instantly and can take up to 20 min before being visible. Click for more information and the Thaiger Talk Guidelines.



  1. Avatar

    toby andrews

    Monday, April 12, 2021 at 11:39 am

    They have missed a scenario out.
    Scenario 6. Citizens not being vaccinated.

  2. Avatar

    Simon Small

    Monday, April 12, 2021 at 11:47 am

    Odd. No “scenarios” include returning to a 14 day quarantine or the “sandbox” models due in only two months.

  3. Avatar

    CJ Hinke

    Monday, April 12, 2021 at 1:32 pm

    55555555555555!!!! LOCK IT DOWN! Let’s get serious.

  4. Avatar


    Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 3:10 am

    No matter what you do, most people in Thailand will eventually be infected within another year or so. How many will be vaccinated by then?

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

A seasoned writer, with a degree in Creative Writing. Over ten years' experience in producing blog and magazine articles, news reports and website content.

Follow Thaiger by email:

Philippines4 hours ago

ICC opens investigation into Philippines President Duterte

World4 hours ago

American general defends “clandestine” phone calls with China

Thailand4 hours ago

Countdown to October reopening; body of Koh Phi Phi resort manager found | Thailand News Today | September 16

Welcome back to Thailand!

Thaiger is getting behind local businesses for the restart of tourism in Thailand - up to 50% discounts across all advertising packages!

Visa5 hours ago

Hungarian woman arrested in Koh Samui for 10-year overstay

Thailand6 hours ago

Nakhon Si Thammarat reports Covid outbreak at prison

Guides6 hours ago

Most famous viewpoints in Phang Nga

Join the conversation on the Thaiger Talk forums today!
Blackpink6 hours ago

Blackpink’s Lisa causes sales frenzy for Buri Ram meatballs

Thailand7 hours ago

NACC ordered to disclose their findings regarding Deputy PM Prawit’s watch scandal

World7 hours ago

“Thai Taste Therapy” launched to promote Thai cuisine worldwide

Food7 hours ago

Food and drinks to stay away from in Thailand

Thailand8 hours ago

Ode to the Comments | Thaiger Bites | Ep. 19

Pattaya8 hours ago

Pattaya reopening likely to snub nightlife, favor other attractions

Thailand8 hours ago

Epidemiologists dispatched to Phuket to help curb the spread of Covid

Phuket9 hours ago

Phuket Vegetarian Festival gets “green light” to run from October 6 to 14

Coronavirus (Covid-19)9 hours ago

Thursday Covid Update: 13,897 new cases; provincial totals

Morning Top Stories Thailand | Police to end protests, Human Trafficking | September 14 | Thaiger
Thailand2 days ago

Morning Top Stories Thailand | Police to end protests, Human Trafficking | September 14

Thailand7 months ago

Thailand News Today | Thai Airways in rehab, All go for Songkran | March 4

Tourism7 months ago

Phuket’s nightlife. Yes, bars and clubs are still open | VIDEO

Phuket7 months ago

Thailand News Today | Covid passport talks, Thai Airways heads to court | March 2

Tourism7 months ago

Phuket Thai food treats you need to try | VIDEO

Thailand7 months ago

Thailand News Today | Bars, pubs and restaurants ‘sort of’ back to normal | Feb 23

Tourism7 months ago

In search of Cat & Dog Cafés in Phuket Town | VIDEO

Thailand8 months ago

Thailand News Today | Gambling crackdown, Seafood market to reopen, Vlogger challenge | Jan 21

Thailand8 months ago

Thailand News Today | Covid testing for visas, Business impact, Vaccine approval | January 19

Thailand8 months ago

Thailand News Today | Weekend Bangkok bombs, Thailand fires, Covid update | January 18

Thailand8 months ago

Thailand News Today | Stray car on runway, Indonesian quake, 300 baht tourist fee | January 15

Thailand8 months ago

Thailand News Today | Governor off respirator, sex-trafficking arrest, condo prices falling | January 14

Thailand8 months ago

Thailand News Today | Chinese vaccine, Thailand ‘drug hub’, Covid update | January 13

Thailand8 months ago

Thailand News Today | Bangkok may ease restrictions, Phuket bar curfew, Vaccine roll out | January 12

Thailand8 months ago

Thailand News Today | Covid latest, Cockfights closed down, Bryde’s Whale beached | January 11