Health officials outline estimated daily infections based on 5 different scenarios

Health officials are using 5 different scenarios, with varying degrees of restrictions, to predict average daily Covid infection numbers in the Thailand, based on the latest rises in new infections over the past month.

The Department of Disease Control and International Health Policy Program agency have based their estimates on 4 main measures in 5 different situations, based on predictive computer modelling. According to a Nation Thailand report, the exercise gives an indication of daily case numbers for the next month.

Scenario 1
No disease control measures: A projected average of 9,140 cases per day, with 1,308 per day the lowest, and 28,678 per day the maximum.

Scenario 2 (the current situation)
With entertainment venues remaining closed in risky provinces: A projected average of 2,996 cases per day, with 817 the lowest, and 7,244 the maximum.

Scenario 3
With entertainment venues closed in risky provinces and changes to individual behaviour: A projected average of 934 cases per day, with 475 the lowest, and a maximum of 1,589.

Scenario 4
With entertainment venues closed in risky provinces, changes to individual behaviour, and a reduction in public gatherings: A projected average of 593 cases per day, with 378 per day the lowest, and a maximum of 857 cases per day.

Scenario 5
With entertainment venues closed in risky provinces, changes to individual behaviour, a reduction in public gatherings, and people working from home: A projected average of 391 cases per day, 303 the lowest, and 484 the maximum.

Meanwhile, Sophon Iamsirithaworn from the Communicable Diseases Division of the Department of Disease Control says infections are currently rising rapidly in many provinces. Most cases have links to entertainment venues, including pubs and karaoke bars.

He says 4 important measures are necessary – particularly over the Songkran holiday this week – if the spread is to be curtailed…

• Social measures: Reduce social gatherings and unnecessary travel between provinces. Community leaders must track and locate people arriving from vulnerable areas and implement preventative measures.

• Public health measures: Proactive screening, separating high-risk and low-risk groups, provide thorough care to reduce illness, and vaccinate people to reduce the severity of the disease.

• Individual adoption of DMHTTA measures – distancing, mask-wearing, hand washing, temperatures checks, testing, apps (ThaiChana and MorChana). Those who visit high-risk venues – particularly nightlife – must strictly self-isolate.

• Organisational measures: Move to homeworking, hold meetings online, and organise learning and training remotely.

SOURCE: Nation Thailand