Thailand’s export sector sees recovery with third month of growth

The Director-General of the Fiscal Policy Office, Pornchai Thiraveja, announced that the export sector is showing signs of recovery, marking its third month of consecutive growth. Despite a year-on-year contraction of 2.7% in the value of exports between January and October, monthly figures indicate a resurgence, with an 8% rise in October to US$23.5 billion.

Quarterly analysis shows a decrease in the value of exports by 4.5% in the first quarter, 6.2% in the second quarter, and a smaller 0.5% contraction in the third quarter. Excluding oil-related products, gold, and weaponry, the real sector witnessed a growth of 5.4%.

Pornchai Thiraveja attributes the uplift in exports to an increase in agricultural products, such as fresh and frozen fruits, rice, food seasonings, and canned and processed vegetables. Industrial product shipments also saw growth for the first time in three months, with key products like automobiles, electronic circuit boards, telephone parts, and semiconductor transistors showing an upward trend. However, exports of rubber, air conditioners, computers, and sugar experienced a slowdown.

The value of exports to primary trading partners such as the US, Australia, India, and China increased by 13.8%, 13.7%, 8.6%, and 3.4% respectively. New markets like the Commonwealth of Independent States also demonstrated a significant growth of 77.2%. However, export figures to Japan and the EU showed a decline from September to October, reported Bangkok Post.

Inflation, which was a concern earlier due to escalating global crude oil prices, witnessed a drop of 0.31% in October from the previous year. For the first ten months of the year, inflation stood at 1.61%, comfortably within the Bank of Thailand’s target range of 1 to 3%.

The value-added tax collection, indicative of domestic consumption and imported goods, rose by 5.2% year-on-year in October, despite a contraction of 3.6% over the first ten months. The consumer confidence index also reflected positivity, with a consecutive three-month rise to 60.2% in October, up from 58.7% the previous month. This is attributed to government stimulus policies, a surge in foreign tourist arrivals, and improved export figures.

In October, foreign arrivals stood at 2.2 million, marking a 49.7% increase from the same period last year, with a majority of tourists hailing from Malaysia, China, India, South Korea, and Russia.

Regarding economic stability, public debt at the end of September represented 62.1% of GDP, a figure within the fiscal discipline framework as per the 2018 State Fiscal and Financial Discipline Act. External stability remains solid and capable of handling risks from global economic volatility, with international reserves standing at US$211 billion at the end of July.