A health sub-committee of the government’s Covid-19 task force has approved a reduction in quarantine from 14 days to 10, for visitors arriving from “safe” countries. They would be those that are at a similar risk level to Thailand, or slightly higher. Those arriving from countries considered “high risk” will still need to carry out 14 days’ quarantine.
The proposal now needs to be approved by the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration, which is chaired by the PM, Prayut Chan-o-cha. Public Health Permanent Secretary Kiattiphum Wongrajit says the reduction has received initial approval after a trial showed that both 10-day and 14-day quarantine periods had the same result.
“Reducing quarantine to 10 days only slightly increases risk of infections, from 0.3 people per 1 million in 14-day quarantine to 1.5 per million in 10-day quarantine.”
Kiattiphum says that were Thailand to get back to the days of 30 million arrivals a year, it’s possible around 300 of them would be positive for the virus and asymptomatic, meaning their infections might not be detected during the 10-day quarantine. In this case, he says wristband trackers will mean they can be traced and treated.
“After 10 days, it should be possible for tourists to travel to at least 10 provinces where disease prevention measures are in place, including Chonburi, Phuket, Rayong, Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Buriram and Surat Thani.”
Officials are hoping the reduction in quarantine might encourage more foreign tourists to Thailand.
SOURCE: Nation Thailand
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"... a trial showed that both 10-day and 14-day quarantine periods had the same result.
“Reducing quarantine to 10 days only slightly increases risk of infections, from 0.3 people per 1 million in 14-day quarantine to 1.5 per million in 10-day quarantine.”
I'm confused.
0.3 and 1.5 are hardly "the same" .....
..... and I would have thought a five fold increase is hardly "slight".
Given that a change from 14 days to ten will probably make only a minimal difference to tourist numbers, particularly as many will have to self-isolate for a further 14 days on their return home, I'm very dubious about whether that justifies increasing the risk five-fold.
Don't worry John. Its highly unlikely many Chinese will show up under this plan. That is once they find out if they just wait another month or two they can come in without a quarantine. Regardless, why worry since there is no virus in the areas of China being considered. How do we know this? Because the Chinese government told us so and they are honest people after all. Just think of all those Chinese tourists flying in on Chinese airlines, staying in Chinese owned condos and rental homes, spending their money with Chinese guides and at Chinese own businesses. No doubt buying all those imported goods to take back home. Has to be worth any level of risk ... doesn't it?
It's a good one. Totally agree.
Its per million. They are unlikely to half half that by end of year so statistically by those numbers they might have 1 case by year end
Yes, understood, but It's what it's based on that I'm curious about.
"0.3 people per million" on three tests (14 days) is 0.0000003% (6 decimal places).
A 3% test failure rate is 3% on the first test, 0.09% on the second, and 0.003% on the third.
Even a test which is ten times better than that, with a test failure rate of 0.3%, is still only 0.000003% (5 decimal places) on the third test, so still only a tenth as good as "0.3 people per one million" .
"Reducing quarantine to 10 days only slightly increases risk of infections, from 0.3 people per 1 million in 14-day quarantine to 1.5 per million in 10-day quarantine.”
I may be missing it, but does anyone understand what this means and what it's based on?
"Kiattiphum says that were Thailand to get back to the days of 30 million arrivals a year, it’s possible around 300 of them would be positive for the virus and asymptomatic, meaning their infections might not be detected during the 10-day quarantine"
That's a bit worrying, as that's definitely NOT the "meaning" of "asymptomatic" according to any and all of the medical definitions I've seen. According to all reports I've seen, asymptomatic cases are also as likely to test positive as symptomatic cases.
"... asymptomatic ... In this case, he says wristband trackers will mean they can be traced and treated"
I'm confused by that too. If they're "asymptomatic", then why would they be "traced", and how would they be "treated"?
Ask yourself this John; even if they can track where the infected person been, what about all of the people they have been close to and all the people they have met and so on.
Shenanigans!
I did!
"“After 10 days, it should be possible for tourists to travel to at least 10 provinces where disease prevention measures are in place, including Chonburi, Phuket, Rayong, Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Buriram and Surat Thani.”
... so does that mean "disease prevention measures AREN'T in place in the other 67 provinces, including Bangkok?
Good lord do you ever shut up......
Ha! I thought the same thing. I know whenever I click into a story on Covid, Issan John will be here wringing his hands.
I’m not sure what he doesn’t get about the basic math of 0.3 PER MILLION vs 1.5 PER MILLION. 5x of a very small percentage is still a very small percentage. As the reader above posted, this means with the current rate of people going through quarantine you still likely would not a single person that tested negative at 10 days but was indeed still positive.
I submit that the most likely cases of local transmission will come from illegal border crossings.
Answered already - again (Europe lockdown article..IIRC).
I'm not holding my breath waiting for you to do the same.