Guinea’s future uncertain as coup leaders tighten grip on power

The morning after the coup, the capital woke up on Monday to a new reality which has left Guineans with mixed feelings. “There is a great sense of uncertainty,” said DW’s correspondent in Conakry, Bangaly Conde.

“Today we saw an image of Guinea we are not used to see. We are very disappointed with the army,” one Guinean told DW.

Not everyone was disappointed. Another resident of the capital said that he was very proud, “because the country is doing really badly. People are suffering. I really want something to change soon.”

For many citizens who are feeling overwhelmed by economic hardship the military takeover came at the right time. “I don’t have the words. I’m so happy. There is no water, there is no electricity, and above all, there are no roads. We are tired of all this. He [President Alpha Conde] should go take a rest,” one woman said.

Constitution suspended

On Sunday, coup leader Mamady Doumbouya, head of the Groupement des Forces Speciales (GPS), an elite unit of the Guinean army, suspended the constitution and dissolved the government and parliament, shortly after arresting President Alpha Conde. The president had originally formed the GPS to protect him.

The soldiers have replaced all regional governors with military commanders, imposed a curfew and closed the country’s land and air borders.

The members of Alpha Conde’s cabinet faced the threat of being considered rebels if they failed to attend a meeting called for Monday by the coup leaders. Ministers were banned from travelling abroad and asked to turn in their passports.

In a communique, the soldiers said that “all measures will be taken to ensure the safety of peaceful citizens and their property.”

Broad international condemnation

The international community, including the African Union and the United Nations, swiftly condemned the toppling of the elected government. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) joined demands for the return to a democratic rule, threatening sanctions if its calls go unheeded.

Coup leader Doumbouya stood firm as he justified the military takeover. “Poverty and endemic corruption” forced soldiers to oust Conde, he argued.

“We have dissolved the government and its institutions,” Doumbouya, a former French foreign legionnaire, announced, adding that a transitional unity government would be installed sooon. “We are going to rewrite the constitution together,” he said in a televised speech, surrounded by heavily armed soldiers.

According to DW sources, during his time in the French Foreign Legion until 2018, Doumbouya took part in missions in Afghanistan, Ivory Coast and the Central African Republic, among others. He knows the Malian military officer Assimi Goita, who ousted President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita from power in 2020 and has himself been interim head of state of Mali since a second coup in May 2021.

The West will get used to it

Political scientist Doudou Sidibé was skeptical about the condemnation of the Guinean coup by the international community, African organizations and regional organizations.

He told DW that at the start coups always get condemned. “Then the coup plotters promise democracy, development and free and transparent elections. And then the international community calms down,” he said.

Sidibé mentioned as examples recent military takeovers in Mali, Chad and other places on the continent.

Guinean analyst Kabine Fofana told DW that, following the coup, he foresaw a dangerous power struggle within the army. “The risk is great. There is no unanimity on this coup d’état. The question now is how the situation will develop in the coming days,” Fofana said.

Is Conde to blame?

Alpha Conde came to power in 2010, after the country’s first-ever democratic elections. Shortly after being sworn in, he survived an assassination attempt on his life. For a while Guineans placed high expectations on the former opposition politician.

But the 83-year-old’s popularity plummeted when he rammed through constitutional changes allowing him to sidestep the country’s limit of two presidential terms.

Political scientist Ibrahima Kane of the Open Society Foundation questioned the legitimacy of Alpha Conde’s third term. “He really forced this election. And the Guinean army has long been an army that reflects the chaotic situation in the country,” he told DW.

The analyst blamed Conde for what happened because he surrounded himself with yes-men and lost contact with reality. “They told him that without him, nothing would work. But look at the man: he’s 83 years old! That’s when we know that he is no longer in full possession of his powers to lead a country as complicated as Guinea,” he said.

No foreign interests involved

Kojo Asante, director for Advocacy and Policy Engagement at Ghana Center for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana), agrees. He rejected rumors that foreign interests may be at play in the coup.

“I will not be in a hurry to put this at the doorstep of foreign powers or other external forces because there have been a lot of issues that have happened in Guinea,” he told DW, explaining: “We went through almost one year of serious violence, leading up to the election and postelection. Almost a hundred people died. So, this is a country that has been going through turmoil for a while.”