Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier may vanish by 23rd century, experts warn

A vast ice sheet in Antarctica, comparable in size to Great Britain, may nearly vanish by the 23rd century, according to experts. The Thwaites Glacier, one of the globe’s largest and most rapidly moving glaciers, along with the Amundsen Sea Embayment, contributes 8% to the current global sea level rise, which is 4.6mm annually.

The International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC) anticipates that ice loss from the glacier will speed up throughout the 22nd century, potentially causing a significant collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the 23rd century. Should it completely melt, the glacier could increase sea levels by 3.3 metres (nearly 10 feet).

Climate Central’s modelling suggests such a rise would submerge substantial areas of central London, including Westminster, Battersea, and Canary Wharf. Dr. Rob Larter, a marine geophysicist with the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and Science Co-ordination of the ITGC, stated that Thwaites has been retreating for over 80 years and has significantly accelerated in the past 30 years. He noted that their findings indicate further and faster retreat is imminent.

Dr. Larter added that there is a consensus on the glacier’s retreat accelerating within the next century. However, recent studies suggest additional, less understood processes could hasten this retreat sooner than anticipated.

Thwaites Glacier, which rests on a bed far below sea level and slopes downwards toward the West Antarctic interior, is highly susceptible to rising sea temperatures. It spans approximately 120km, making it the widest glacier globally, and exceeds 2,000 metres in thickness in some areas.

Researchers utilised underwater robots, novel survey techniques, and innovative ice flow and fracture modelling approaches to study the glacier. They acknowledge significant uncertainties about the glacier’s future but predict that ice loss from the retreating glacier will increase due to climate and oceanic changes. They also warn that the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf, which currently covers about half of the glacier’s 120km-wide front, is likely to disintegrate within the next decade.

In March, scientists proposed a radical solution to protect the glacier: a 62-mile long curtain designed to shield it from warm water beneath. Last year, a UK Foreign Office-commissioned group of scientists warned that the “unprecedented” changes in Antarctica were not being taken seriously enough.