News Forum - Tuesday Covid Update: 5,947 new cases; provincial totals

[Thaiger]

62 coronavirus-related deaths were reported by the CCSA today, raising the pandemic’s death toll in Thailand to 20,143 with 20,049 of those fatalities during the latest wave, which was first recorded on April 1. In the 24-hour period since the last count, the CCSA recorded 5,947 new Covid-19 cases and 7,943 recoveries. There are now 92,105 people in Thailand being treated for Covid-19. Since the start of the pandemic last year, the CCSA has recorded 2,030,700 confirmed Covid-19 cases. The latest wave has accounted for 2,001,837 of those infections. Vaccination update In the Thai government’s mass vaccination drive, which was […]

The story Tuesday Covid Update: 5,947 new cases; provincial totals as seen on Thaiger News.

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[mickkotlarski]

Following the dropping trend of daily infected in Indonesia and Japan. Far from over but good to see all the same,

[Griff1315]

11 minutes ago, mickkotlarski said:

Following the dropping trend of daily infected in Indonesia and Japan. Far from over but good to see all the same,

Good to see if it was remotely believable...

[mickkotlarski]

6 minutes ago, Griff1315 said:

Good to see if it was remotely believable...

I was thinking that as well Griff but if the background BS is consistent then the numbers dropping is positive.

Even if they tally is false its the numbers that authorities and legislators use to pass regulations that affect us directly.

[Griff1315]

3 minutes ago, mickkotlarski said:

I was thinking that as well Griff but if the background BS is consistent then the numbers dropping is positive.

Even if they tally is false its the numbers that authorities and legislators use to pass regulations that affect us directly.

But using falsified figures to attract tourists and pretend "everything is ok here nothing to look at honest", puts us all in further danger by not having a truthful picture of what is really going on...

Hope and wish the numbers are on the decline but as long as ATKs are widly used and then not counted in the numbers how can we possibly believe the $hat their feeding us... 

[Stonker]

2 minutes ago, Griff1315 said:

... how can we possibly believe the $hat their feeding us?

By comparing it to all the known facts such as excess deaths rather than just assuming its "$hat" because you don't like those giving you the numbers.

Do that, and the trends are crystal clear.

[mickkotlarski]

11 minutes ago, Griff1315 said:

But using falsified figures to attract tourists and pretend "everything is ok here nothing to look at honest", puts us all in further danger by not having a truthful picture of what is really going on...

Hope and wish the numbers are on the decline but as long as ATKs are widly used and then not counted in the numbers how can we possibly believe the $hat their feeding us... 

Fair comments and in agreement but you're sounding a tab like my wife and my neighbors.  The numbers as skeptical as they are still showing a drop. At least there is some optimism after all the lockdowns and restrictions. What will be of major interest if what happens shortly after more restrictions are lifted.

I'm really hoping we don't face 25,000+ per day cases again. I look at the UK, Russia, the US  and Germany and hope we don't follow suit.

Also agree about testing for the dreaded virus leaves a lot to be desired and number tested are low but if background BS stays the same. We are seeing an improvement even if the tally is BB's.

[JohninDublin]

33 minutes ago, Griff1315 said:

Good to see if it was remotely believable...

It would be helpful if the naysayers were to actually give their opinions of the real numbers. It seems to me that is the real question. 

I have doubts about the absolute numbers, but most of those saying these are false, imply that matters are not getting any better.

So at it's peak, TH reported 21k new cases. Are those who are implying that the situation is not getting better, suggesting that we are being lied to and there are still 21k cases (or worse) per day?  What about if they believe the true figure to be say 15k a day, is that not an improvement on 21k a day.

The thing I look at in trying to assess which way the trend is going, is the regional patterns. It looks to me like the decline in TH is pretty much in keeping with what is happening in the rest of Asia. I don't trust the figures in TH are likely to be accurate, but if TH suddenly became a regional leader in eradicating this disease, I would certainly be sceptical. However, with over 85 mill doses of vax so far administered, why wouldn't the numbers be falling? 

[Griff1315]

1 minute ago, JohninDubin said:

It would be helpful if the naysayers were to actually give their opinions of the real numbers. It seems to me that is the real question. 

I have doubts about the absolute numbers, but most of those saying these are false, imply that matters are not getting any better.

So at it's peak, TH reported 21k new cases. Are those who are implying that the situation is not getting better, suggesting that we are being lied to and there are still 21k cases (or worse) per day?  What about if they believe the true figure to be say 15k a day, is that not an improvement on 21k a day.

The thing I look at in trying to assess which way the trend is going, is the regional patterns. It looks to me like the decline in TH is pretty much in keeping with what is happening in the rest of Asia. I don't trust the figures in TH are likely to be accurate, but if TH suddenly became a regional leader in eradicating this disease, I would certainly be sceptical. However, with over 85 mill doses of vax so far administered, why wouldn't the numbers be falling? 

High use of ATKs that are not included in the figures, if everything is good numbers falling then why not include these tests. As I said in previous posts I hope the numbers are declining just want more transparency as to how they arrive at these numbers. 

[la-resistance]

So amazed that lots of people are so blind to see that the figures presented is done by just cutting down on the tests.

Comparing a small country like Austria who have a rise in covid to Thailand says just everything. They just turned up the number of test and boom, a lot of new covid cases.

 

 

[JohninDublin]

1 minute ago, Griff1315 said:

High use of ATKs that are not included in the figures, if everything is good numbers falling then why not include these tests. As I said in previous posts I hope the numbers are declining just want more transparency as to how they arrive at these numbers. 

I think the answer to your question is that these tests have never been included so introducing them now distorts the picture.

But I have a question for those who don't believe the figures may be in decline: If the regional trend over the past few months be downwards, why would TH be excluded from that trend? The evidence is that the vax reduces transmission. So how does the figure remain static at best, or even increase when it's flow is being interrupted? Barring a new variant, it seems logical to me that the numbers must be going down, because it has an decreasingly smaller pool to feed from, while other have acquired a level of resistance that also impedes infection.

At it's peak of 23k Infections on 13 Aug, TH had delivered 17 mill vax doses. They have now reached 85 mill. Does that level of vaxxing discourage you from believing, that the numbers should certainly be falling?

[Griff1315]

2 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

I think the answer to your question is that these tests have never been included so introducing them now distorts the picture.

But I have a question for those who don't believe the figures may be in decline: If the regional trend over the past few months be downwards, why would TH be excluded from that trend? The evidence is that the vax reduces transmission. So how does the figure remain static at best, or even increase when it's flow is being interrupted? Barring a new variant, it seems logical to me that the numbers must be going down, because it has an decreasingly smaller pool to feed from, while other have acquired a level of resistance that also impedes infection.

At it's peak of 23k Infections on 13 Aug, TH had delivered 17 mill vax doses. They have now reached 85 mill. Does that level of vaxxing discourage you from believing, that the numbers should certainly be falling?

So including positive ATKs would distort the figures how? Only by making them more accurate. The fact remains that testing in Thailand has also declined in line with the declining figures, I wonder why....

[la-resistance]

40 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

I think the answer to your question is that these tests have never been included so introducing them now distorts the picture.

But I have a question for those who don't believe the figures may be in decline: If the regional trend over the past few months be downwards, why would TH be excluded from that trend? The evidence is that the vax reduces transmission. So how does the figure remain static at best, or even increase when it's flow is being interrupted? Barring a new variant, it seems logical to me that the numbers must be going down, because it has an decreasingly smaller pool to feed from, while other have acquired a level of resistance that also impedes infection.

At it's peak of 23k Infections on 13 Aug, TH had delivered 17 mill vax doses. They have now reached 85 mill. Does that level of vaxxing discourage you from believing, that the numbers should certainly be falling?

Well Austria have around the same % of vaccinated people and have seen the same drop in infections, but at the same time they did cut back on test and now when they detected more infected they have also started to do more testing and will of course find more infected both F/P and real.

They also report both quick tests and PCR test to the statestics.

Edited November 16, 2021 by la-resistance
wrong text

[JohninDublin]

28 minutes ago, la-resistance said:

So amazed that lots of people are so blind to see that the figures presented is done by just cutting down on the tests.

Comparing a small country like Austria who have a rise in covid to Thailand says just everything. They just turned up the number of test and boom, a lot of new covid cases.

I can think of a number of reasons why comparing Austria with TH is dubious. The most obvious being most of the lockdowns in Europe are minimal, and thus there is a rising infection trend of 14% week on week, compared to a 6% decline in Asia which is mainly still in lockdown. The increase in Austria is one of the worst at 44%. Then there is the fact Austria is part of Schengen, whereas TH tests everyone crossing their borders and insists people entering the country, with few exceptions are vaxxed. Another key factor is there will be a lot of mandatory testing in Austria, whereas most Thais are likely to get tested because they feel unwell. It is typical where there is mandatory testing, for 97% of all tests to be negative, The figure for Austria is 99%. Could it possibly be that the upsurge in testing in Austria, is related to people there feeling unwell?

But particularly dubious, is selecting a country that is currently suffering it's worst attack and has seen figures increase by 500% in one month: If you'll excuse the mixed metaphors, you are cherry picking, apples and oranges.

[la-resistance]

1 minute ago, JohninDubin said:

I can think of a number of reasons why comparing Austria with TH is dubious. The most obvious being most of the lockdowns in Europe are minimal, and thus there is a rising infection trend of 14% week on week, compared to a 6% decline in Asia which is mainly still in lockdown. The increase in Austria is one of the worst at 44%. Then there is the fact Austria is part of Schengen, whereas TH tests everyone crossing their borders and insists people entering the country, with few exceptions are vaxxed. Another key factor is there will be a lot of mandatory testing in Austria, whereas most Thais are likely to get tested because they feel unwell. It is typical where there is mandatory testing, for 97% of all tests to be negative, The figure for Austria is 99%. Could it possibly be that the upsurge in testing in Austria, is related to people there feeling unwell?

But particularly dubious, is selecting a country that is currently suffering it's worst attack and has seen figures increase by 500% in one month: If you'll excuse the mixed metaphors, you are cherry picking, apples and oranges.

Well I could choose any other country in europe and the picture is the same all over and where as some of the countries like Germany that has a big rise in cases and have had fairly strict policy wearing masks and people working from home and around 69% vaccinated.

Denmark one of the most vaccinated countries with around 80% - 85% is also seeing a huge raise in new cases, so no matter what picture of beauty your trying to put asia in I really do disagree. Despite the lockdown people in Thailand also violate the restrictions' alot. If you live in Thailand you will of course see this.

[JohninDublin]

40 minutes ago, Griff1315 said:

So including positive ATKs would distort the figures how? Only by making them more accurate. The fact remains that testing in Thailand has also declined in line with the declining figures, I wonder why....

Do not try to put words in my mouth. It does noting for the paucity of an argument.

It distorts the figures because you have now adopted a different method of counting. The quality of the new method can only be properly assessed if you can also add all the old ATK tests to the original data. That in turn has an inherent problem in that earlier versions of the ATK tests had large error rates of up to 20% being reported.

As for the rest of your question, I really am surprised that I need to even have to consider the need to explain that to you? Since the peak on August 23rd, the amount of vaxxes has gone from 17 mill to 85 mill. Unless you think the vax has no effect, then I would suggest that the very obvious reason for the decline in testing, is that fewer people are becoming ill, so there is less demand for testing. 

If you happen to be one of those who thinks that the gov is deliberately limiting tests, do you not think that we would see some evidence of that by now? I understand at its peak, there were 80k tests per day, but 20k is the current figure. There has been some anecdotal evidence of people being told to "come back tomorrow", at some centres, but that might be easily explained by supply chain screw-ups. More to the point, if hospitals suddenly saw a persistent 75% reduction in test kits, if the disease was failing to recede, they would see ever increasing queues at test stations. 

Sometimes, it is better to look for the evidence that should be there, but isn't when trying to develop a theory. There is no evidence of ever lengthening queues at test centres, which is what we would expect to see if the figures were not going down because the gov had reduced test kits by 75%. The decline in testing can be explained by the increasing numbers of vaxxed people.

Don't get me wrong. I have doubts about the accuracy of the TH gov's figures. But that does not mean that I disbelieve that there is a downward trend. 

[Griff1315]

23 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

Do not try to put words in my mouth. It does noting for the paucity of an argument.

It distorts the figures because you have now adopted a different method of counting. The quality of the new method can only be properly assessed if you can also add all the old ATK tests to the original data. That in turn has an inherent problem in that earlier versions of the ATK tests had large error rates of up to 20% being reported.

As for the rest of your question, I really am surprised that I need to even have to consider the need to explain that to you? Since the peak on August 23rd, the amount of vaxxes has gone from 17 mill to 85 mill. Unless you think the vax has no effect, then I would suggest that the very obvious reason for the decline in testing, is that fewer people are becoming ill, so there is less demand for testing. 

If you happen to be one of those who thinks that the gov is deliberately limiting tests, do you not think that we would see some evidence of that by now? I understand at its peak, there were 80k tests per day, but 20k is the current figure. There has been some anecdotal evidence of people being told to "come back tomorrow", at some centres, but that might be easily explained by supply chain screw-ups. More to the point, if hospitals suddenly saw a persistent 75% reduction in test kits, if the disease was failing to recede, they would see ever increasing queues at test stations. 

Sometimes, it is better to look for the evidence that should be there, but isn't when trying to develop a theory. There is no evidence of ever lengthening queues at test centres, which is what we would expect to see if the figures were not going down because the gov had reduced test kits by 75%. The decline in testing can be explained by the increasing numbers of vaxxed people.

Don't get me wrong. I have doubts about the accuracy of the TH gov's figures. But that does not mean that I disbelieve that there is a downward trend. 

So including the deliberately hidden ATKs in the figures should have been done from the beginning but because it wasn't they cannot be included now. Smart party trick for the government that one.

Testing is and has always been low in Thailand with many asking for tests being previously turned away are now given ATKs which cannot now be added to the total RESULT.

Many more who feel sick afraid to be put in field hospitals and such like just stay home with no test.

Actually living here  I know personally to a village not far from my home that had 40 positive covid tests in one day. Watching the provincial totals for our province the figures never went over 20 for the full province. The village was tested using PCR tests to confirm ATKs. I wonder where those numbers got lost...

[JohninDublin]

1 hour ago, Griff1315 said:

High use of ATKs that are not included in the figures, if everything is good numbers falling then why not include these tests. As I said in previous posts I hope the numbers are declining just want more transparency as to how they arrive at these numbers. 

I'd suggest that one reason for not including those figures is because if you are using it to show trends, all the previous data has never been collated and thus it does not begin to help assess whether the infection is getting worse. The only way I can see it being useful without adding to the mountain of confusion is for the gov to collate the data for a month or so, and then when they start releasing "todays" figures, they are shown against the corresponding day for the previous month so at least we can assess he trend. 

But having seen the responses by so many on the issue of the accuracy of TH's figures, I don't doubt for a minute as soon as those figures were released there would still be many who disbelieved these or would be looking for clues to prove non-existent theories. On that basis, why should they even bother? 

But here's a thought for those who refuse to believe that the figures are in in decline. If this is as a result of the gov unwarrantedly reducing testing from say 80k a day to 20k, surely we should be seeing evidence of a huge increase in purchases of ATK's. So where is it?

[Griff1315]

4 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

I'd suggest that one reason for not including those figures is because if you are using it to show trends, all the previous data has never been collated and thus it does not begin to help assess whether the infection is getting worse. The only way I can see it being useful without adding to the mountain of confusion is for the gov to collate the data for a month or so, and then when they start releasing "todays" figures, they are shown against the corresponding day for the previous month so at least we can assess he trend. 

But having seen the responses by so many on the issue of the accuracy of TH's figures, I don't doubt for a minute as soon as those figures were released there would still be many who disbelieved these or would be looking for clues to prove non-existent theories. On that basis, why should they even bother? 

But here's a thought for those who refuse to believe that the figures are in in decline. If this is as a result of the gov unwarrantedly reducing testing from say 80k a day to 20k, surely we should be seeing evidence of a huge increase in purchases of ATK's. So where is it?

The poor people of this land that have been thrown out of work due to covid restrictions have all on trying to feed themselves and their families. Hence all the food line handouts around Pattaya, Bangkok and other places. Perhaps if the government wanted a clearer picture of the virus they would make the kits freely available. As in free no purchase required.

[JohninDublin]

7 minutes ago, Griff1315 said:

So including the deliberately hidden ATKs in the figures should have been done from the beginning but because it wasn't they cannot be included now. Smart party trick for the government that one.

Testing is and has always been low in Thailand with many asking for tests being previously turned away are now given ATKs which cannot now be added to the total RESULT.

Many more who feel sick afraid to be put in field hospitals and such like just stay home with no test.

Actually living here  I know personally to a village not far from my home that had 40 positive covid tests in one day. Watching the provincial totals for our province the figures never went over 20 for the full province. The village was tested using PCR tests to confirm ATKs. I wonder where those numbers got lost...

I've already advised you about trying to put words into my mouth. That applies especially so when those words are not what I am saying. As I said, initially there were clear doubts about the accuracy of ATK kits while there was far less concern about PCR tests.

Testing is and has always been low in Thailand with many asking for tests being previously turned away are now given ATKs which cannot now be added to the total RESULT.

And your evidence of this is...?

Many more who feel sick afraid to be put in field hospitals and such like just stay home with no test.

Ditto

I do find it interesting the number of anecdotal stories of "I know a village near me...", where the village is never named. I don't say you are lying but my experience of most "I know of..." reports and the important data such as "who, what, why, when, where and how" is missing, are usually hearsay.

[Griff1315]

4 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

I've already advised you about trying to put words into my mouth. That applies especially so when those words are not what I am saying. As I said, initially there were clear doubts about the accuracy of ATK kits while there was far less concern about PCR tests.

Testing is and has always been low in Thailand with many asking for tests being previously turned away are now given ATKs which cannot now be added to the total RESULT.

And your evidence of this is...?

Many more who feel sick afraid to be put in field hospitals and such like just stay home with no test.

Ditto

I do find it interesting the number of anecdotal stories of "I know a village near me...", where the village is never named. I don't say you are lying but my experience of most "I know of..." reports and the important data such as "who, what, why, when, where and how" is missing, are usually hearsay.

I could if I thought it would help name the village and point it out on a map but seeing though you are 7000 miles away and wouldn't know what a rural Thai village looks like I won't bother. 

Your entitled to your views of what's happening here even if from afar but we will just have to agree to differ. 

[JohninDublin]

1 hour ago, la-resistance said:

Well Austria have around the same % of vaccinated people and have seen the same drop in infections, but at the same time they did cut back on test and now when they detected more infected they have also started to do more testing and will of course find more infected both F/P and real.

They also report both quick tests and PCR test to the statestics.

Fair enough, especially if TH had done that from Day 1. They didn't which means that starting to do so today really does not help. I am not averse to the introduction of ATK, but it needs to have context. To start publishing this data today without something to compare it to would not be helpful in the short term. 

What Austria doesn't have is a lock-down like TH and neither do the surrounding countries. It also doesn't test new arrivals into the country. Conversely, the infection rates are per capita, are 19X greater in Europe compared to Asia (up from 16x last week). As I said, apples and oranges.

[JohninDublin]

31 minutes ago, Griff1315 said:

I could if I thought it would help name the village and point it out on a map but seeing though you are 7000 miles away and wouldn't know what a rural Thai village looks like I won't bother. 

Your entitled to your views of what's happening here even if from afar but we will just have to agree to differ. 

What a patronising answer. I can assure you that I have visited several villages in TH as well as Cam and Phils. It is part of the "boyfriend experience" I provide. I meet a girl that I like. Stay with her for a while, and if she hasn't seen her family for weeks or months, I take her to her village for a couple of days. So far, I've done this in Pranchinburi, Korat, Nong Khai and Khon Kaen provinces just in TH.

Distance does not negate the statistical evidence. 

[Bob20]

56 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

I've already advised you about trying to put words into my mouth. That applies especially so when those words are not what I am saying. As I said, initially there were clear doubts about the accuracy of ATK kits while there was far less concern about PCR tests.

Testing is and has always been low in Thailand with many asking for tests being previously turned away are now given ATKs which cannot now be added to the total RESULT.

And your evidence of this is...?

Many more who feel sick afraid to be put in field hospitals and such like just stay home with no test.

Ditto

I do find it interesting the number of anecdotal stories of "I know a village near me...", where the village is never named. I don't say you are lying but my experience of most "I know of..." reports and the important data such as "who, what, why, when, where and how" is missing, are usually hearsay.

John, just quickly jumping in, but all 7/11's ( and plenty of other shops and pharmacies) selling ATK's for 150 baht so people don't go to an official test location (and obviously also aren't registered if positive, let alone counted in the stats), is that also anecdotal? Everyone can see how the figures were first manipulated down by reducing PCR tests (the only ones counted for the stats) and now people test themselves when worried, so they aren't sent away but can home self-isolate, or even worse, are knowingly superspreaders unless taken ill because they "must work".

If it's all hunky dory, how do you think the two designated CM hospitals are full, their ICUs are full, the two field hospitals are full and they now equipped a 50 bed special ICU ward at the international convention center, AND are still sending patients to surrounding areas? Case load between 300 and 500 new PCR positives per day and not even thinking about test center ATK's, let alone the privately bought ones.

When you see the absurd amount of ambulances that are driving around the city, you simply know. The proof you want won't come from the only office that could provide it. They can't even get their story straight when two government officials talk about the stats from the same day.

And not that I'm always correct, but I predicted the current situation well ahead. There was no proof for that at the time either... 

[JohninDublin]

1 hour ago, Bob20 said:

John, just quickly jumping in, but all 7/11's ( and plenty of other shops and pharmacies) selling ATK's for 150 baht so people don't go to an official test location (and obviously also aren't registered if positive, let alone counted in the stats), is that also anecdotal? Everyone can see how the figures were first manipulated down by reducing PCR tests (the only ones counted for the stats) and now people test themselves when worried, so they aren't sent away but can home self-isolate, or even worse, are knowingly superspreaders unless taken ill because they "must work".

If it's all hunky dory, how do you think the two designated CM hospitals are full, their ICUs are full, the two field hospitals are full and they now equipped a 50 bed special ICU ward at the international convention center, AND are still sending patients to surrounding areas? Case load between 300 and 500 new PCR positives per day and not even thinking about test center ATK's, let alone the privately bought ones.

When you see the absurd amount of ambulances that are driving around the city, you simply know. The proof you want won't come from the only office that could provide it. They can't even get their story straight when two government officials talk about the stats from the same day.

And not that I'm always correct, but I predicted the current situation well ahead. There was no proof for that at the time either... 

Bob: You and I have had this discussion multiple times, and WADR, you are the king of the anecdote, and now you introduce more. We know that CM is going through a particularly rough patch at the moment. Is that the situation throughout TH. If it is not, then it remains anecdotal.

My particular reference to "anecdotal" evidence was inspired by an earlier exchange where you related several incidents of people being unable to get tests, but you were unable to identify any evidence that this was systematic and deliberate. But I recall you suggested at it's peak, TH was doing 80k tests per day and this would correspond to 23k new cases it reported. This opens up a whole load of questions for me. As an example, would it not be safe from your point of view, 23k was also an under-reporting? If so, by how much. And this really the prob I have with your posts on this issue. You tell me the figures are not coming down, or the gov is withholding tests, but evidence that should be there to support this, just isn't there. 

I know you believe in vaxxing, so looking at the 23k figure, are you aware since that day, vaxxing has increased from 17 mill to 85 mill. Yet you cannot accept if the pool of the easiest infected has shrunk so dramatically, then infections should be going down? If I thought that, then it would be ridiculous for me to believe in the efficacy of the vax. Do you not see that in refusing to accept cases are declining in light of the massive increase in the vaxxed, you are de facto, contradicting your own belief in the vax? 

As for the suggestion the gov is withholding PCR tests, I think it's safe to presume there are hundreds of test centres involved. If it were true, I would expect to hear of numerous hospitals telling patients, "Don't blame us. The Gov won't give us the tests", and this in turn would be reported in the media. My opinion is it is simply too big a story to hide.

Then there is the regional aspect to consider. Asia has pretty much sang from the same song sheet for months, maintaining restrictions that have been abandoned in Europe. The week on week figures for Asia are consistently down and TH are consistently within 5 percentage points of the decline in infections reported for the region. A likely explanation for that, is they are generally doing the same as the rest of the continent. So if numbers are consistently falling in Asia, why shouldn't they also be falling in TH? 

I have a great deal of respect for your posts, but as to whether numbers are declining or not, this is "Occam's Razor on steroids". The most obvious answer is also most likely to be correct. That the numbers are in decline because TH has administered so many doses of the vax while maintaining restrictions.