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Best-case for Phuket’s Sandbox: up to 1.2 million tourists, Kasikorn predicts


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Up to 1.2 million foreign tourists could travel to Thailand through Phuket’s “Sandbox” travel scheme. That’s the best-case scenario, according to the Kasikorn Research Centre. They estimate that the scheme, which is planned to allow vaccinated tourists to enter the country and stay on the island without going through quarantine, could draw in 550,000 people to 1.2 million from July 1 to the end of the year. The worst-case scenario… only 250,000 tourists arrive in the next 6 months. Under Phuket’s Sandbox model, travellers who are vaccinated against the coronavirus can enter the island province without undergoing the 14-day quarantine. […]

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13 minutes ago, Luigi said:

dreaming with your eyes open

With your eyes open? . . . tightly closed, more like! The so-called powers-that-be see very little of what needs to be seen.

Hi, Luigi and welcome to T-T!

Happy posting

KC

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@dbeatty333

Hi, dbeatty333 and welcome to T-T!

I couldn't agree more with your forecast. I found the report sadly lacking in failing to note any of Kasikorn's credentials as a 'research centre'. I'm not even going to waste my time Googling it, since I don't doubt its existence - I just doubt its credibility, especially now in the light of that 1.2M figure . . . crazy!

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1.2 million is just a number someone pulled out of their ass… 200,000 at most. That would be 1,000 per day flying into Phuket, every single day, for the rest of the year.  That’s a pipe dream.

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3 hours ago, Mike said:

That’s a pipe dream.

Absolutely!

Hi, Mike and welcome to T-T. Feel free to tell us a bit about yourself in 'Introductions'. It's good to pick-up on those sometimes differing geographical perspectives.

Happy posting

KC

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Best case 550.000-1.100.000 and worst case 250.000 !

How on this earth, this could happen ? Under the planned rules only direct international flights are allowed. Actually there is a hand full airlines  SQ from SIN, QR from DOH, EK from DXB, EY from AUH, HK from HKG which flys @ least every second day into Phuket. TG planned some single flights from all over Europe ( but from all destinations only once per week ) . Now let's asume very optimistic every aircraft loads 200 pax. We still have 180 days to count from 01.July. 

250.000 : 180days = 1.389 pax/day : 200 per aircraft = 7

Means every day there have to be 7 aircrafts landing in Phuket from international flights, which each carry 200 pax.

This is a dream under the planed ( even yet not confirmed conditions ). Our family is ready, tix booked for 04.JUL/5th. via SIN on SQ. I will report about the load on this flight. Due to low demand only operates 3-4 times per week.

I think this dreamfull optimistic thinking, only can become true, if

them allow connections via "save/sealed flights via Bangkok

and the minimum stay in Phuket goes down to not more than 10 nights

and the Covid testings NOT have to be PCR, but antigen which only cost a fraction ( max 400 THB/each )

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1 hour ago, Patongbert said:

How on this earth, this could happen ?

Yes, good question, which even your thorough detail barely answers, but thanks for that.

 

Hi, Patongbert and welcome to T-T!

And, although I might assume that you're Bert from Patong, my mother taught me never to assume anything and I therefore know nothing, other than that you're a new T-T member.

So please feel free to tell us a bit about yourself in 'Introductions'. It's good to pick-up on those sometimes differing regional or geographical perspectives.

And check-out the Guidelines, too, when you get a free minute. They're there to help us all enjoy our time here.

Happy posting

KC

 

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They are dreaming. They break dow the year into 4 quarters and just relay every 3 months what they projected in the previous year for future arrivals. Much like they do with the economy; at the beginning of the year it was projected to grow 6-7% now its 1-2% and by the end of August / Sep it will be set contract. They just buying time... What they could do to help is lower the baht for exports, vax the people, open the borders and offer incentives for multinationals to establish corporates here whether by taxes or other incentives.  

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10 minutes ago, dabossofbosses said:

They are dreaming.

Yes, that's the top and bottom of it.

Thanks for your excellent debut post dabossofbosses (great name!) and welcome to T-T!

 

Feel free to tell us a bit about yourself in 'Introductions'. It's good to pick-up on those sometimes differing regional or geographical perspectives.

And check-out the Guidelines, too, when you get a free minute. They're there to help us all enjoy our time here.

Happy posting

KC

 

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14 minutes ago, King Cotton said:

Yes, that's the top and bottom of it.

Thanks for your excellent debut post dabossofbosses (great name!) and welcome to T-T!

Feel free to tell us a bit about yourself in 'Introductions'. It's good to pick-up on those sometimes differing regional or geographical perspectives.

And check-out the Guidelines, too, when you get a free minute. They're there to help us all enjoy our time here.

Happy posting

KC

Will do. I am in London but an admirer of Thailand and its people and yet it saddens me to see this situation happening to the country. 

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I can't see it, but I guess they could achieve the worst case numbers if they make some changes very quickly.

Stuff like remove the requirement to wear a mask, reduce the 14 days to under 7 days and (at least) allow alcohol to be served in restaurants. They need to do this pretty quickly though. 

As for the 1.2m best case number, all I can say is 55555555555555...

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1 hour ago, AndyW said:

I can't see it, but I guess they could achieve the worst case numbers if they make some changes very quickly.

Stuff like remove the requirement to wear a mask, reduce the 14 days to under 7 days and (at least) allow alcohol to be served in restaurants. They need to do this pretty quickly though. 

As for the 1.2m best case number, all I can say is 55555555555555...

As far as i heard, alcohol in restaurants is allowed !! Only in bars and public areas NOT.

Even the worst case ( 250.000 ) are hard to reach, if them not open entry via domestic shutles in BKK, which them already discussed about ( so called sealed/save transfers ). Them want to organice one terminal where @ least interline airlines ( PG/TG and Thai Smile ), which have contracts with major other airlines about interlining baggage through, until HKT. But actually them not find airlines to fly into Phuket with 1400 pax per day.  That's also a question of bilateral traffic rights. I could imagine, later may be from October, airlines like Eurowings, Edelweiß, or Virgin Australia pic up some weekly routes direct to Phuket. But now it is low season. No normal tourist is thrilled to travel to Thailand and have to stay 2 weeks in Phuket in rainseason plus @ least 3 expensive PCR tests..... That's only for us, partly expats, pending between Europe/USA/Australia and TH, which have family there. we anyhow have to go, and better bite in this aple, than to quarantine in BKK without a chance to leave even a hotel-room for 2 weeks.

*** Well by the way, yes iam Bert from Germany and ( Patong ), which was for 11 years from 2004-2014 my second home. I (run) an apartmenthouse in Patong, before serving tourists, but since back to Germany only for longterm expats. We ( wife , myselfe and the 3 younger kids from my 5 ), trying to match sandbox for entering TH via SIN . Departure DE 04th. July from FRA with SWISS via ZRH to SIN and onward with SQ next morning direct into Phuket. We both are vaccinated tomorrow 2 weeks ago, with J&J, so only 1 shot. And childrens actually not need.... So we are in good hope for 6 weeks TH in summer.

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6 hours ago, AndyW said:

55555555555555...

Hi, AndyW

Apart from the above which means nothing to me, I can only agree with your 'easing' arguments.

Regarding the above symbols, please refer to Guideline 15, avoid abbreviations and/or text-talk and stick to English words that we all understand.

Cheers

KC, Moderator

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12 hours ago, King Cotton said:

Hi, AndyW

Apart from the above which means nothing to me, I can only agree with your 'easing' arguments.

KC, Moderator

555 = Hahaha which is pretty well known and used term. 

I can use Hahahaha in future if necessary...

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17 hours ago, Patongbert said:

As far as i heard, alcohol in restaurants is allowed !! Only in bars and public areas NOT.

I'm pretty sure that Alcohol is not legally available in restaurants at this time and haven't seen anything to suggest that's changing. 

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