Harris and Trump neck-and-neck as US election nears

The presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is intensely competitive as Election Day on 5 November approaches. The next president will shape the nation’s future for years to come.

Both Harris and Trump are fervently campaigning nationwide, frequently revisiting key battleground states where outcomes remain uncertain. Though millions will vote across all 50 states, the focus is on these pivotal states, where the race is exceptionally tight and could swing either way in 2024.

Harris may secure the popular vote, but the Electoral College determines the presidency. The candidate who garners 270 out of 538 electoral votes will become the next U.S. President. Harris faces a more challenging path to reaching 270 compared to Trump, but 93 electoral votes from major battleground states are still undecided. Significant funds are being invested in television and digital advertising within these key states to motivate voter turnout.

Closest race ever? This is nail-biting levels of close 😬📊! Harris and Trump are basically tied, and every vote could flip the script. So will the headline be “America pick their first Woman President” or “America choose another second trump presidency” 😰🥵 #ElectionDay pic.twitter.com/I17bUgzBeL

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— rvn (@VArivandy) October 30, 2024

Arizona, with 11 electoral votes, is a crucial Western battleground. It has shifted from reliably Republican to increasingly competitive. Polls indicate Trump leading by 2.5 points as of 29 October, with spending on campaign advertising surpassing $54 million from early October to Election Day. Trump won Arizona in 2016 by over 3.5 points, but Biden narrowly flipped it in 2020, winning by just over 10,000 votes. Both candidates are actively campaigning here, alongside a critical Senate race.

In Georgia, one of two Southern states in contention with 16 electoral votes, the race is extremely close. Historically Republican, Georgia elected a Democrat in 2020 for the first time since 1992. Polls show Trump leading by 2.4 points as of 30 October. Over $63 million is allocated for advertising in the state leading up to the election. Biden’s victory in 2020 was attributed to a shift among suburban voters and a growing non-white electorate. Despite intraparty tensions, Trump aims to reclaim Georgia for the Republicans. Democrats, meanwhile, remain confident, bolstered by recent Senate wins.

Michigan, offering 15 electoral votes, is part of the Democrats’ strategic ‘blue wall’. Harris holds a slight lead by 0.5 points as of 30 October. Over $75 million is earmarked for advertising from October until Election Day. Trump narrowly won Michigan in 2016, but Biden reversed this in 2020 with a substantial margin. Democrats have strengthened their presence since 2016, focusing on maintaining voter enthusiasm in key urban areas. Recent Democratic successes in state elections reinforce confidence in holding Michigan.

Nevada, with six electoral votes, is a perennial swing state. Trump leads by a slim margin of 0.5 points as of 30 October. Approximately $24 million is being spent on campaign efforts in the state during the final month. Biden won Nevada in 2020 by a narrow margin, following Clinton’s similar victory in 2016. The state faces economic challenges from the pandemic, influencing the political landscape. Nevada employs a vote-by-mail system, with ballots distributed to all registered voters.

North Carolina, also with 16 electoral votes, has leaned Republican in recent elections but remains a target for Democrats. Trump leads by 1 point as of 30 October. Advertising spending exceeds $60 million leading up to the election. Trump won narrowly in 2020, but Democrats aim to capitalize on the state’s growing diverse population. Both parties are campaigning vigorously, especially in rural areas impacted by recent natural disasters.

Pennsylvania, the largest battleground with 19 electoral votes, is crucial for both campaigns. Trump is ahead by three-quarters of a point as of 30 October. More than $130 million is allocated for advertising in the final month. Biden’s 2020 victory was aided by urban and suburban turnout, but Trump seeks to regain support through strong rural engagement. Both candidates have focused efforts here, with notable public appearances and rallies.

Wisconsin, with 10 electoral votes, is another significant battleground. Harris is slightly ahead by 0.2 points. Over $47 million is designated for campaign advertising. Biden’s 2020 win in Wisconsin reversed Trump’s 2016 victory, with increased turnout in key cities and suburban areas. The state’s role in the ‘blue wall’ strategy emphasizes its importance.

Voting regulations vary by state, with options for early voting, mail-in ballots, and in-person voting on Election Day. Each state has specific deadlines for voter registration and ballot submission, ensuring every vote is counted in this pivotal election.