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Covid infections in Phuket are creeping up again after 3 weeks of increased arrivals and a revival of nightspots and bars around the island, despite officially being illegal. Phuket’s Governor Narong Woonciew has confirmed that the number of new infections has been rising steadily over recent weeks. The island’s bars and nightlife have been keen to take advantage of the increase in arrivals since the November 1 easing of arrival restrictions. Police and authorities appear to have turned a blind eye to the businesses reopening to customers even though Thailand’s CCSA, and the Thai PM Prayut Chan-o-cha. have pleaded with the […]

The story Phuket daily Covid infections rise over 100 again. Today 109 new cases. as seen on Thaiger News.

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"pre-Sandbox campaign to get the island’s residents up to a 70% vaccination level before the Sandbox started on July 1 this year."

they never achieved fully vaccinated by thev1st of July, over 60k had only just had 1 AZ and had to wait until end of September to end of October to get second jab...

 

"None of these have yet appeared in official reports from the Phuket Provincial Office."

Again why are they hiding these outbreaks .. why not just be honest?

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4 minutes ago, Malc-Thai said:

"pre-Sandbox campaign to get the island’s residents up to a 70% vaccination level before the Sandbox started on July 1 this year."

they never achieved fully vaccinated by thev1st of July, over 60k had only just had 1 AZ and had to wait until end of September to end of October to get second jab...

"None of these have yet appeared in official reports from the Phuket Provincial Office."

Again why are they hiding these outbreaks .. why not just be honest?

Maybe because some have paid handsomely for their business opportunities and refunds don't exist? Reversals may then only happen when there's absolutely no hiding the truth anymore...

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I wrote recently of my suspicions that the powers that be were using Phuket to assess whether to lift the alcohol ban elsewhere. If I'm right and Phuket continues to deteriorate, I don't see Pattaya re-opening any time soon and it looks likely the alcohol ban may be re-introduced in Phuket. It is notable that there seems to be a particular infection hotspot centred on Bangla Rd.

I have very few doubts left now, that the most important factor in beating CV is human behaviour. The reservoir of infection is so large, that within days of restrictions being lifted, infections start to rise. Much as I am craving to book my flight, I cannot blame TH if they decide that lifting the alcohol ban is not the right thing just yet, a deal-breaker for me, I will not criticise their caution.

During the meantime, in support of my theory that the problem is now about human behaviour, the per-capita infection rate in Europe, is 24X that of Asia. Europe has lifted most restrictions, while Asia has not.    

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19 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

I wrote recently of my suspicions that the powers that be were using Phuket to assess whether to lift the alcohol ban elsewhere. If I'm right and Phuket continues to deteriorate, I don't see Pattaya re-opening any time soon and it looks likely the alcohol ban may be re-introduced in Phuket. It is notable that there seems to be a particular infection hotspot centred on Bangla Rd.

I have very few doubts left now, that the most important factor in beating CV is human behaviour. The reservoir of infection is so large, that within days of restrictions being lifted, infections start to rise. Much as I am craving to book my flight, I cannot blame TH if they decide that lifting the alcohol ban is not the right thing just yet, a deal-breaker for me, I will not criticise their caution.

During the meantime, in support of my theory that the problem is now about human behaviour, the per-capita infection rate in Europe, is 24X that of Asia. Europe has lifted most restrictions, while Asia has not.    

Problem is John people that have complained and said open up because people only want a beer or a glass of wine with their meal. well this doesn't happen.. its full on.. the one or 2 drinks with a meal hasn't happened in patong for example..  one thing is most are vaccinated but there are people here from all over Thailand and after their few days here head home to their provinces where still many people want a vaccine or holding out for a decent vaccine.. I've been watching the cases rising each week and hospitals will fill up again.. their approach of oh this bar has covid so close it just doesn't work because its the people not the bar .. they will move to the next bar and that will get closed and so on.

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4 minutes ago, Malc-Thai said:

Problem is John people that have complained and said open up because people only want a beer or a glass of wine with their meal. well this doesn't happen.. its full on.. the one or 2 drinks with a meal hasn't happened in patong for example..  one thing is most are vaccinated but there are people here from all over Thailand and after their few days here head home to their provinces where still many people want a vaccine or holding out for a decent vaccine.. I've been watching the cases rising each week and hospitals will fill up again.. their approach of oh this bar has covid so close it just doesn't work because its the people not the bar .. they will move to the next bar and that will get closed and so on.

now the funny thing this is all part of the so-called sponspored traveling aka we travel together.
Where they pay 50-80% less then we currently do, ain't that great!

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6 minutes ago, Shark said:

now the funny thing this is all part of the so-called sponspored traveling aka we travel together.
Where they pay 50-80% less then we currently do, ain't that great!

I know it's just plain crazy 

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4 minutes ago, Malc-Thai said:

Problem is John people that have complained and said open up because people only want a beer or a glass of wine with their meal. well this doesn't happen.. its full on.. the one or 2 drinks with a meal hasn't happened in patong for example..  one thing is most are vaccinated but there are people here from all over Thailand and after their few days here head home to their provinces where still many people want a vaccine or holding out for a decent vaccine.. I've been watching the cases rising each week and hospitals will fill up again.. their approach of oh this bar has covid so close it just doesn't work because its the people not the bar .. they will move to the next bar and that will get closed and so on.

That's pretty much what I have been saying. Behaviour is the problem. In the past, the young were seeing on the news, that it was "only" killing the "old gits", so they didn't see why they should be excluded from having fun. They cared little about the possibility that they might infect others. Now that vaxxing has slowed the death rates, people who were at higher risk but have been vaxxed, are also taking more risks.

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The moment they decided to allow partially, or non vaccinated people onto the island, the increase in cases was only a matter of time.

The situation will get worse, given the target for tourists is currently Europe, and Covid is exploding in Europe. 

It will not be long before the Thailand Pass has a section on it, asking if you are of sound mind if you insist on coming. 

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1 hour ago, Shark said:

now the funny thing this is all part of the so-called sponspored traveling aka we travel together.
Where they pay 50-80% less then we currently do, ain't that great!

That's what I thought at introduction as well. But in fairness, the vendor doesn't sell half price, but the discounted part is paid by the government and we can't really expect they do that for us too never having paid taxes here.

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1 hour ago, Bob20 said:

That's what I thought at introduction as well. But in fairness, the vendor doesn't sell half price, but the discounted part is paid by the government and we can't really expect they do that for us too never having paid taxes here.

Sorry Bob but again, your wrong here I do pay tax so... this doesn't fly.. for those on tourist visa's I can coop with this or refugee visa.

So I don't agree with this one. Agree with most what you say. I can actually agree that they do that as I pay tax for myself and my staff.

Let me put this into food for thought there's a big group taking advantage of it while never have paid a single baht of tax or always the lowest amount,

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25 minutes ago, Shark said:

Sorry Bob but again, your wrong here I do pay tax so... this doesn't fly.. for those on tourist visa's I can coop with this or refugee visa.

So I don't agree with this one. Agree with most what you say. I can actually agree that they do that as I pay tax for myself and my staff.

It wasn't a personal accusation. I should have said "those expats who don't pay tax" as that was what I meant but I could have been clearer.

(After your edit you mention the Thai group that doesn't pay tax, but you have that group in any country.)

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Let’s just remember that vaccines don’t create a force field around the human body that keeps the virus out. The vaccine keeps us from getting sick after the vaccine enters the body. So better to make decisions based on hospitalizations and deaths rather than positive cases. If hospitalizations and deaths are increasing, that is concerning. If we’re only observing an increase in positive cases with no increase in hospitalizations or deaths, the vaccines are doing their job… carry on.

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Stop Testing... Problem Solved. People who develop symptoms and seek treatment get tested... everything else only creates all of this unnecessary chaos. 

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7 hours ago, JohninDubin said:

I wrote recently of my suspicions that the powers that be were using Phuket to assess whether to lift the alcohol ban elsewhere. If I'm right and Phuket continues to deteriorate, I don't see Pattaya re-opening any time soon and it looks likely the alcohol ban may be re-introduced in Phuket. It is notable that there seems to be a particular infection hotspot centred on Bangla Rd.

I have very few doubts left now, that the most important factor in beating CV is human behaviour. The reservoir of infection is so large, that within days of restrictions being lifted, infections start to rise. Much as I am craving to book my flight, I cannot blame TH if they decide that lifting the alcohol ban is not the right thing just yet, a deal-breaker for me, I will not criticise their caution.

During the meantime, in support of my theory that the problem is now about human behaviour, the per-capita infection rate in Europe, is 24X that of Asia. Europe has lifted most restrictions, while Asia has not.    

Why do you have to mention Europe every time a topic is made regarding Thailand ?? at least your having at the UK.

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5 hours ago, BIGGLES said:

The moment they decided to allow partially, or non vaccinated people onto the island, the increase in cases was only a matter of time.

The situation will get worse, given the target for tourists is currently Europe, and Covid is exploding in Europe. 

It will not be long before the Thailand Pass has a section on it, asking if you are of sound mind if you insist on coming. 

Yet again I have to remind you, you cannot leave your country to fly anywhere if you fail your Pre flight Travel pass testing so unless you contact covid on route its not travelers bringing it into Thailand. To me its the staff being brought onto Phuket to fill the jobs that are bringing it in. How else can the cases be rising in the last few weeks.

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36 minutes ago, vlad said:

Yet again I have to remind you, you cannot leave your country to fly anywhere if you fail your Pre flight Travel pass testing so unless you contact covid on route its not travelers bringing it into Thailand. To me its the staff being brought onto Phuket to fill the jobs that are bringing it in. How else can the cases be rising in the last few weeks.

I fully agree!

That's why I said, the minute they started to let partially vaccinated  or non vaccinated onto the Island it was only a matter of time.

You don't need to remind me of anything my friend.😉

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59 minutes ago, BIGGLES said:

I fully agree!

That's why I said, the minute they started to let partially vaccinated  or non vaccinated onto the Island it was only a matter of time.

You don't need to remind me of anything my friend.😉

I didn't mean you Biggles i mean't members jumping on the " the reopening of bars and nightlife " sorry if you thought i was having a go at you Biggles.

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16 minutes ago, vlad said:

Why do you have to mention Europe every time a topic is made regarding Thailand ?? at least your having at the UK.

I don't understand the final part of your post. Please explain?

I do not "mention Europe every time a topic is made regarding Thailand", but even if I did, is there a rule against it? Usually when I mention Europe, it's in relation to Asia. Should I also stop mentioning Asia too? Am I writing something off topic?

Have you noticed the number of times that I have written saying I think that TH is doing well in reducing the infection rates, how often I am told, "If only TH carried out the same number of tests as the UK, we'd see that the numbers were not decreasing". Have you ever criticised those posters for interjecting the UK into that, notwithstanding that they can never produce anything more anecdotal evidence for these claims? 

Anyway. let me to get to the point. In order to support my claims about the rates declining rates in TH, I point out that the decline in TH is consistent with regional decline, and I ask the question if the rates are going down all over Asia, why should that not also apply to TH? That's one question that nobody has answered so far. I then go on to point my belief that the reason for the declining numbers is because Asia (and TH) have kept the restrictions in place. In case people then want to challenge my theory about the restrictions, I point to the stats in Europe where there are very few restrictions.

So to summarise, I am so fed up at having to justify my beliefs that the infection trends in TH are downwards, in order to reduce the risk of a ping-pong series of posts I am likely to see from people who have no evidence to the contrary, I get my retaliation in first by comparing Asia directly, and thus TH indirectly, with stats from both Europe and Asia.

I trust that answers your question?

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10 hours ago, Malc-Thai said:

Again why are they hiding these outbreaks .. why not just be honest?

That was a rhetorical question I think? 
 

Three words answers it - Loss Of Face. Better to lie and save face. The fact everyone knows you’ve lied doesn’t seem to make them lose face for some unfathomable reason. 

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9 hours ago, JohninDubin said:

During the meantime, in support of my theory that the problem is now about human behaviour, the per-capita infection rate in Europe, is 24X that of Asia. Europe has lifted most restrictions, while Asia has not. 

Clearly human behaviour dictates infection rates. If for example, we all stayed isolated for a month then the virus would be gone. As for the 24X infection rates John, let’s not open that old debate again. But do you really think both the testing rates and reported infections in Asia are as accurate and transparent as they are in Europe.  I know you don’t given previous discussions and so the 24x is meaningless. 
 

The reason for the increase is obvious. If you open bars and nightlife it results in close contact with lots of people. That means the virus spreads. It’s really that simple. So you only open nightlife once your healthcare systems can handle the increases in infections leading to hospitalisations leading to deaths. This only occurs once you have fully vaccinated enough people and/or many more people have been infected. You then enter a phase such as the U.K., where infection rates are essentially meaningless and the focus shifts firmly to hospitalisations and deaths.  

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40 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

I don't understand the final part of your post. Please explain?

I do not "mention Europe every time a topic is made regarding Thailand", but even if I did, is there a rule against it? Usually when I mention Europe, it's in relation to Asia. Should I also stop mentioning Asia too? Am I writing something off topic?

Have you noticed the number of times that I have written saying I think that TH is doing well in reducing the infection rates, how often I am told, "If only TH carried out the same number of tests as the UK, we'd see that the numbers were not decreasing". Have you ever criticised those posters for interjecting the UK into that, notwithstanding that they can never produce anything more anecdotal evidence for these claims? 

Anyway. let me to get to the point. In order to support my claims about the rates declining rates in TH, I point out that the decline in TH is consistent with regional decline, and I ask the question if the rates are going down all over Asia, why should that not also apply to TH? That's one question that nobody has answered so far. I then go on to point my belief that the reason for the declining numbers is because Asia (and TH) have kept the restrictions in place. In case people then want to challenge my theory about the restrictions, I point to the stats in Europe where there are very few restrictions.

So to summarise, I am so fed up at having to justify my beliefs that the infection trends in TH are downwards, in order to reduce the risk of a ping-pong series of posts I am likely to see from people who have no evidence to the contrary, I get my retaliation in first by comparing Asia directly, and thus TH indirectly, with stats from both Europe and Asia.

I trust that answers your question?

Hi John. I agree totally that rates increase when you reduce restrictions. Especially when you open bars and nightlife. Closer contact with more people means more infections. 
 

As for the infection rates falling in Thailand. Would you agree that if you test less you find less cases? Furthermore, if you are targeting testing to areas where you suspect there are hotspots, would you agree that halving the tests would more or less half the infections found? If so, do you think the attached graph, which shows a fall in testing, has a remarkable correlation with falls in cases? Hence could this be the reason case numbers are falling in Thailand? 
 

C66E9451-8985-40CF-851D-AE5C5771FCC8.jpeg

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Nothing to worry about, it's just a matter of minor outbreak, just need at least 3 days of major deep cleaning around the entertainment district of Bangla Road, as long as you fully vaccinated with either Moderna or Pfizer, your chances of getting COVID-19 will be slim.

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5 hours ago, Jackson said:

Let’s just remember that vaccines don’t create a force field around the human body that keeps the virus out. The vaccine keeps us from getting sick after the vaccine enters the body. So better to make decisions based on hospitalizations and deaths rather than positive cases. If hospitalizations and deaths are increasing, that is concerning. If we’re only observing an increase in positive cases with no increase in hospitalizations or deaths, the vaccines are doing their job… carry on.

Pffffffffff... Thanks Jackson. I thought I would again read only the usual apocalyptic comments. Nice to see inbetween a rational one.

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