News Forum - Tuesday Covid Update: 5,947 new cases; provincial totals

[Bob20]

9 hours ago, JohninDubin said:

Bob: We know that CM is going through a particularly rough patch at the moment. Is that the situation throughout TH. If it is not, then it remains anecdotal

John, most of my posts are absolutely factual, but in this case when there is only one (generally seen as) unreliable source, what you see around you isn't necessarily untrue. 

As for withholding ATK test results, you say that someone would have spoken up. Well, they did. The doctors' association at that and created quite a stir!

And as far as what you see as a contradiction, believing in vaxxing, that is not a contradiction at all. The vaccinated don't present lower infection rates, they present fewer hospitalisations. A very different thing. That's what you see around you in Europe as well. 

You can keep asking for evidence that doesn't exist in a country where the output is controlled and choose to ignore what is happening. But just because you believe the only spreadsheet there is, doesn't mean you've got it right. All those that told me CM had high rates of vaccination according to the figures and that what I said about CM a couple of months ago was all anecdotal, have gone very quiet now.

Perhaps if you were not in Dublin but had feet on the ground here, you'd have a different feel for the situation causing some more doubt too.

[JohninDublin]

4 hours ago, Bob20 said:

John, most of my posts are absolutely factual, but in this case when there is only one (generally seen as) unreliable source, what you see around you isn't necessarily untrue. 

As for withholding ATK test results, you say that someone would have spoken up. Well, they did. The doctors' association at that and created quite a stir!

And as far as what you see as a contradiction, believing in vaxxing, that is not a contradiction at all. The vaccinated don't present lower infection rates, they present fewer hospitalisations. A very different thing. That's what you see around you in Europe as well. 

You can keep asking for evidence that doesn't exist in a country where the output is controlled and choose to ignore what is happening. But just because you believe the only spreadsheet there is, doesn't mean you've got it right. All those that told me CM had high rates of vaccination according to the figures and that what I said about CM a couple of months ago was all anecdotal, have gone very quiet now.

Perhaps if you were not in Dublin but had feet on the ground here, you'd have a different feel for the situation causing some more doubt too.

I don't doubt the honesty of your. My problem is that they are too anecdotal to help with any data to persuade me that the numbers are not going down. 

Fewer hospitalisations to me looks like evidence that infections are going down.

I am so glad that you mentioned the ATK tests, even though my reference was to an earlier claim you made suggesting the gov were deliberately cutting PCR tests. The reason why I welcome that comment is that it supports my earlier comment, that if the gov were doing this to PCR tests, surely the people working in the test centres would have made mention of this?

I think your last two paras can be combined: You say the evidence doesn't exist. I say that if matters are occurring in the way you say they are, rather than being anecdotal, we would be seeing similar reports all over the place. We would be seeing Doc's complaining that PCR tests are systematically withheld. We would be seeing whistle blowers coming forward saying, "The gov only reported 32 cases in my province and just speaking to a few colleagues, I've already discovered 114". And we would be seeing ever lengthening queues at test centres. There are two types of evidence in this case: There is the evidence that is obvious such as data. I don't believe the figures are accurate but that does not mean that the figures are not going down. That is something you stubbornly refuse to believe. You might be right, but where is your evidence other than anecdotes? But in the absence of data, the other type of evidence is evidence that should be there but isn't. And there is plenty of that. During the meantime, we are seeing a consistent downward trend in Asian country's infection rates and they are all pretty much locked down in the same fashion. That being so, why wouldn't TH also be showing a downward trend? The fact that I may be in Dub, has little bearing on the case. If I were in TH, I could only see what is in front of me, and I would not be able to see the whole picture you are painting.

[Bob20]

15 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

I don't doubt the honesty of your. My problem is that they are too anecdotal to help with any data to persuade me that the numbers are not going down. 

Fewer hospitalisations to me looks like evidence that infections are going down.

I am so glad that you mentioned the ATK tests, even though my reference was to an earlier claim you made suggesting the gov were deliberately cutting PCR tests. The reason why I welcome that comment is that it supports my earlier comment, that if the gov were doing this to PCR tests, surely the people working in the test centres would have made mention of this?

I think your last two paras can be combined: You say the evidence doesn't exist. I say that if matters are occurring in the way you say they are, rather than being anecdotal, we would be seeing similar reports all over the place. We would be seeing Doc's complaining that PCR tests are systematically withheld. We would be seeing whistle blowers coming forward saying, "The gov only reported 32 cases in my province and just speaking to a few colleagues, I've already discovered 114". And we would be seeing ever lengthening queues at test centres. There are two types of evidence in this case: There is the evidence that is obvious such as data. I don't believe the figures are accurate but that does not mean that the figures are not going down. That is something you stubbornly refuse to believe. You might be right, but where is your evidence other than anecdotes? But in the absence of data, the other type of evidence is evidence that should be there but isn't. And there is plenty of that. During the meantime, we are seeing a consistent downward trend in Asian country's infection rates and they are all pretty much locked down in the same fashion. That being so, why wouldn't TH also be showing a downward trend? The fact that I may be in Dub, has little bearing on the case. If I were in TH, I could only see what is in front of me, and I would not be able to see the whole picture you are painting.

There are so many reports on this site alone reporting cases in schools and hospitals that exceed the subsequent official numbers that you can't just ignore them as anecdotes.

Also the doctors' associations reports say enough, whilst some have since faced action over their whistleblowing.

And surely you would appreciate the situation more if you were here and live and breathe the Thai news instead of reading government biased publications, as speaking freely and openly isn't even possible. That you would be able to assess a situation from abroad looking at a spreadsheet controlled by a government that doesn't allow free speech is really taking the mickey!

But you're free to believe what you want. You're never going to officially see different reports as they are disallowed and anything other than the government's narrative is suppressed. They even tried to introduce a law for that purpose which didn't make it, so they now do it the same way as before. I don't put much value in purely theoretical assessments that clearly deviate from experience in day to day life. The figures don't tell the whole story.

[JohninDublin]

16 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

There are so many reports on this site alone reporting cases in schools and hospitals that exceed the subsequent official numbers that you can't just ignore them as anecdotes.

Also the doctors' associations reports say enough, whilst some have since faced action over their whistleblowing.

And surely you would appreciate the situation more if you were here and live and breathe the Thai news instead of reading government biased publications, as speaking freely and openly isn't even possible. That you would be able to assess a situation from abroad looking at a spreadsheet controlled by a government that doesn't allow free speech is really taking the mickey!

But you're free to believe what you want. You're never going to officially see different reports as they are disallowed and anything other than the government's narrative is suppressed. They even tried to introduce a law for that purpose which didn't make it, so they now do it the same way as before. I don't put much value in purely theoretical assessments that clearly deviate from experience in day to day life. The figures don't tell the whole story.

I get my News from Thaiger. Is that gov controlled?

And I am glad you accept my right to believe what I want. That will be based on evidence and not anecdote.

And I note that though I've raised the issue on more than one occasion, you still can't explain to me why you think the persistent downward trend in Asia excludes TH? They are pretty much doing the same thing regarding lockdown and vaxxing, so if the numbers are downward in Asia, why not in TH too?

And in case anyone is just seeing our exchanges for the first time, my position is not that I believe the accuracy of the TH figures. My position is that I do believe the number of new infections are on a downward trend.

[LoongFred]

8 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

I get my News from Thaiger. Is that gov controlled?

And I am glad you accept my right to believe what I want. That will be based on evidence and not anecdote.

And I note that though I've raised the issue on more than one occasion, you still can't explain to me why you think the persistent downward trend in Asia excludes TH? They are pretty much doing the same thing regarding lockdown and vaxxing, so if the numbers are downward in Asia, why not in TH too?

And in case anyone is just seeing our exchanges for the first time, my position is not that I believe the accuracy of the TH figures. My position is that I do believe the number of new infections are on a downward trend.

We need to distinguish asymptomatic and light cases from more severe illness. With more knowledge and self testing comparisons to the past isn't credible. The parameters of this pandemic change all the time. It might be worse but we don't know because everything changes. It's very difficult for public health officials in this ever changing environment.  People need to work but the public needs protection, and there are no clear choices. 

Eventually everyone will have been exposed or inoculated or both. That's when things will calm down.

 

[Bob20]

30 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

I get my News from Thaiger. Is that gov controlled?

And I am glad you accept my right to believe what I want. That will be based on evidence and not anecdote.

And I note that though I've raised the issue on more than one occasion, you still can't explain to me why you think the persistent downward trend in Asia excludes TH? They are pretty much doing the same thing regarding lockdown and vaxxing, so if the numbers are downward in Asia, why not in TH too?

And in case anyone is just seeing our exchanges for the first time, my position is not that I believe the accuracy of the TH figures. My position is that I do believe the number of new infections are on a downward trend.

Of course Thaiger is restricted. They know what to avoid. The rules to avoid retribution are very clear. The government may have been unsuccessful in passing a new law, but the old ones give them enough control.

I think you're making an essential error in believing that numbers are the only evidence. But it's exactly why you can't assess the situation from Dublin, looking at what many here see as creatively doctored figures.

And if they did 100 PCR tests and 30 were positive and reported, subsequently do 80 tests and find 24 positives, then do 60 and find 18 positives, clearly the numbers go down congruently with the number of tests.

Now you add the positive ATKs that they did in lieu of the fewer PCRs and the story becomes very different... Can anyone provide those numbers? No, because the positives from ATKs aren't taken to hospital but to hideaway hotels or self-isolation, amongst others to control the numbers.

It's nice that you make me consider a different point of view, but your numbers from one source, a source which isn't even consistent in its reporting and doubtful at best, don't create a truth just because there are no alternative numbers.

[JohninDublin]

7 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Of course Thaiger is restricted. They know what to avoid. The rules to avoid retribution are very clear. The government may have been unsuccessful in passing a new law, but the old ones give them enough control.

I think you're making an essential error in believing that numbers are the only evidence. But it's exactly why you can't assess the situation from Dublin, looking at what many here see as creatively doctored figures.

And if they did 100 PCR tests and 30 were positive and reported, subsequently do 80 tests and find 24 positives, then do 60 and find 18 positives, clearly the numbers go down congruently with the number of tests.

Now you add the positive ATKs that they did in lieu of the fewer PCRs and the story becomes very different... Can anyone provide those numbers? No, because the positives from ATKs aren't taken to hospital but to hideaway hotels or self-isolation, amongst others to control the numbers.

It's nice that you make me consider a different point of view, but your numbers from one source, a source which isn't even consistent in its reporting and doubtful at best, don't create a truth just because there are no alternative numbers.

And still no answer as to why numbers are going down all over Asia but it can't possibly be happening in TH.

All I ever see in your posts are conjecture based on your mistrust of the TH gov, and anecdotes. Not a single bit to even begin to build a case that anything you report is systematic. You've seen that I am capable of changing my mind. All I need from you is one piece of evidence that cannot be reasonably explained away. During the meantime, I have to tell you, that I won't be answering any more posts from you on this issue, unless they contain evidence to support your claim.

In closing, I am beginning to think your posts look more like CT than anything else. That creates an even greater prob for me in assessing the credibility of your claims: At nearly every step you imply "hidden hands" at work. "If the evidence isn't there, it must be because it is being covered up. Whistle-blowers are being silenced etc". The prob I have with that, is the biggest trouble with conspiracies, is that the more people you need to involve, the more likely the plot will be exposed. 

[Bob20]

1 minute ago, JohninDubin said:

And still no answer as to why numbers are going down all over Asia but it can't possibly be happening in TH.

All I ever see in your posts are conjecture based on your mistrust of the TH gov, and anecdotes. Not a single bit to even begin to build a case that anything you report is systematic. You've seen that I am capable of changing my mind. All I need from you is one piece of evidence that cannot be reasonably explained away. During the meantime, I have to tell you, that I won't be answering any more posts from you on this issue, unless they contain evidence to support your claim.

In closing, I am beginning to think your posts look more like CT than anything else. That creates an even greater prob for me in assessing the credibility of your claims: At nearly every step you imply "hidden hands" at work. "If the evidence isn't there, it must be because it is being covered up. Whistle-blowers are being silenced etc". The prob I have with that, is the biggest trouble with conspiracies, is that the more people you need to involve, the more likely the plot will be exposed. 

It may be a shock to your system, but I'm not here to convince you

Believe what you like, whether it is figures or feet on the ground.

It doesn't make any difference to the situation we experience here what you believe, and even less to people in Ireland.

[JohninDublin]

35 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

It may be a shock to your system, but I'm not here to convince you

Believe what you like, whether it is figures or feet on the ground.

It doesn't make any difference to the situation we experience here what you believe, and even less to people in Ireland.

You're not here to convince me? So why do you keep posting with one anecdote after another.

You can't produce evidence, and you won't let it go. Life's too short. Time to block you.

[semrand753]

1 hour ago, JohninDubin said:

And still no answer as to why numbers are going down all over Asia but it can't possibly be happening in TH.

All I ever see in your posts are conjecture based on your mistrust of the TH gov, and anecdotes. Not a single bit to even begin to build a case that anything you report is systematic. You've seen that I am capable of changing my mind. All I need from you is one piece of evidence that cannot be reasonably explained away. During the meantime, I have to tell you, that I won't be answering any more posts from you on this issue, unless they contain evidence to support your claim.

In closing, I am beginning to think your posts look more like CT than anything else. That creates an even greater prob for me in assessing the credibility of your claims: At nearly every step you imply "hidden hands" at work. "If the evidence isn't there, it must be because it is being covered up. Whistle-blowers are being silenced etc". The prob I have with that, is the biggest trouble with conspiracies, is that the more people you need to involve, the more likely the plot will be exposed. 

 

@JohninDubin: kudos for this intelligent conversation thread

(I could elaborate but it would only make your conversation partner look silly)

 

[Stonker]

On 11/16/2021 at 7:19 PM, Griff1315 said:

So including positive ATKs would distort the figures how? Only by making them more accurate. 

Because they weren't included before! They'd only be "more accurate" if the same criteria was applied and they had to do a PCR test if positive, which is a perfectly valid argument.

On 11/16/2021 at 7:19 PM, Griff1315 said:

The fact remains that testing in Thailand has also declined in line with the declining figures, I wonder why....

That's a "fact", is it?

Or is it just something someone here's said repeatedly without a shred of evidence to support it?

[Stonker]

23 hours ago, la-resistance said:

Despite the lockdown people in Thailand also violate the restrictions' alot. If you live in Thailand you will of course see this.

Odd. I live in Thailand and although I'm well aware of people in places like Phuket and Pattaya violating the restrictions, I haven't seen a single person around here ever violating the restrictions except once several months ago - who, unfortunately, happened to be a farang.

But, of course, that's only what I see, so I don't take it as universal.

[Stonker]

22 hours ago, Griff1315 said:

Actually living here  I know personally to a village not far from my home that had 40 positive covid tests in one day. Watching the provincial totals for our province the figures never went over 20 for the full province. The village was tested using PCR tests to confirm ATKs. I wonder where those numbers got lost...

Could you name it, as that would seem the simple thing to do as it could be verified.

[Bob20]

33 minutes ago, semrand753 said:

@JohninDubin: kudos for this intelligent conversation thread

(I could elaborate but it would only make your conversation partner look silly)

Nah, for that you'd actually have to contribute something yourself

[Stonker]

22 hours ago, Griff1315 said:

Perhaps if the government wanted a clearer picture of the virus they would make the kits freely available. As in free no purchase required.

Tests are given free to all those within two steps of an identified case. If any of those test positive, they're given to those within two steps of them, and so on.

As in free, no purchase required.

[Stonker]

21 hours ago, Bob20 said:

If it's all hunky dory, how do you think the two designated CM hospitals are full, their ICUs are full, the two field hospitals are full and they now equipped a 50 bed special ICU ward at the international convention center, AND are still sending patients to surrounding areas?

As has already been explained but ignored, and as the Dean of the medical faculty at Chiang Mai Uni detailed, because that's how you keep hospitals and ICUs open for other (non-Covid) patients - it's nothing more than good medical practice.

You don't fill up all the hospital beds and all the ICUs in all the hospitals in the city, then get a problem, but instead you p[lan ahead and limit Covid patients to only two hospitals and their ICUs and send patients elsewhere where there's spare capacity.

It's basic contingency planning.

 

9 hours ago, Bob20 said:

John, most of my posts are absolutely factual, but in this case when there is only one (generally seen as) unreliable source, what you see around you isn't necessarily untrue. 

Well, that's your opinion which you're entitled to - others take a different view and have yet to see anything "factual" at all, as here, where it's pure conjecture.

There are also a number of other sources, such as excess deaths, but they confirm and support what @JohninDubin has been saying.

 

9 hours ago, Bob20 said:

You can keep asking for evidence that doesn't exist in a country where the output is controlled and choose to ignore what is happening. But just because you believe the only spreadsheet there is, doesn't mean you've got it right.

But other evidence, such as excess deaths, hospitalisations, ICU numbers and numbers on ventilators does exist.  it just contradicts what you're saying.

 

4 hours ago, Bob20 said:

There are so many reports on this site alone reporting cases in schools and hospitals that exceed the subsequent official numbers that you can't just ignore them as anecdotes.

 

Hardly "so many" - a handful, of which few were specific and when checked those showed cumulative totals rather than daily totals.

 

4 hours ago, Bob20 said:

And surely you would appreciate the situation more if you were here and live and breathe the Thai news instead of reading government biased publications, as speaking freely and openly isn't even possible. That you would be able to assess a situation from abroad looking at a spreadsheet controlled by a government that doesn't allow free speech is really taking the mickey!

Maybe that gives a bit of objectivity and ability to see the bigger picture if you want to, rather than just a very narrow snapshot supported only by what you want to read and local, badly researched reports.

 

 

[Stonker]

2 hours ago, JohninDubin said:

All I ever see in your posts are conjecture based on your mistrust of the TH gov, and anecdotes. Not a single bit to even begin to build a case that anything you report is systematic. You've seen that I am capable of changing my mind. All I need from you is one piece of evidence that cannot be reasonably explained away.

Unfortunately that's all you're ever likely to see, @JohninDubin. 

You and I have disagreed violently (metaphorically) over a number of things, even including the figures, but at least we can still respect each others views and be influenced by them in forming our opinions based on evidence rather than just opinions and preconceptions.

As I've said before, all the available evidence (excess deaths, hospitalisations, ICU numbers, numbers on ventilators, etc, etc, etc) suggests that although the numbers aren't strictly accurate they consistently show trends and there isn't a shred of evidence for anything else apart from "mistrust of the TH gov", "anecdotes" and that Thailand hasn't wasted $50 billion on poor testing.

Some people just won't see what they don't want to see, whatever the evidence.

[Bob20]

5 hours ago, JohninDubin said:

You're not here to convince me? So why do you keep posting with one anecdote after another.

You can't produce evidence, and you won't let it go. Life's too short. Time to block you.

No problem at all.

BTW, I merely interjected in your conversation with grif1315 but you keep asking the same question, so I keep giving the same answer.

You hold up the only available figures from a not always reliable source (and then I'm saying it politely) and ask to disprove them while knowing there are no other figures and calling everything else anecdotal.

I can understand it stings that you were proven wrong before, but this forum isn't about right or wrong (except for how a few members treat it), it's about discussion and opinion. I've mentioned that you are entitled to your opinion, and it's a shame you don't have the same tolerance.

Bye bye

[mickkotlarski]

On 11/16/2021 at 9:28 PM, Griff1315 said:

The poor people of this land that have been thrown out of work due to covid restrictions have all on trying to feed themselves and their families. Hence all the food line handouts around Pattaya, Bangkok and other places. Perhaps if the government wanted a clearer picture of the virus they would make the kits freely available. As in free no purchase required.

Spot on. One of the most transparent and accurate tallies is Korea as they give out free tests rather than wait for people with symptoms to report to a hospital for a test that is too expensive to afford. Some in Thailand that ask why are met with silence.

[palooka]

11 hours ago, Stonker said:

Tests are given free to all those within two steps of an identified case. If any of those test positive, they're given to those within two steps of them, and so on.

As in free, no purchase required.

Wife is a school teacher, one of her pupils tested positive 2 days ago, my wife has been tested as have many at the school, no one has even spoken to me or offered a test so I cannot agree to the 2 step testing. Maybe if my wife tests positive ?????????

[Stonker]

38 minutes ago, palooka said:

Wife is a school teacher, one of her pupils tested positive 2 days ago, my wife has been tested as have many at the school, no one has even spoken to me or offered a test so I cannot agree to the 2 step testing. Maybe if my wife tests positive ?????????

Surprising - standard around here at two steps, and across the province, and it's been that way for a year without anyone asking.

One tourist tested positive when back home a couple of weeks ago, I think in Phuket, and the staff in the restaurant they'd been to up here in Loei were tested as well as their kids / parents - none, fortunately, tested positive. I suppose to some extent it must be down to how interested / worried the hospital staff are.

Shows the danger of taking local experience as gospel!