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apple stock before new macbook release


dj230
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No margin on the trade. Macbooks are nice but they're not a major revenue/profit center for the company. It would cost +/-US$140K to get in with 1K shares and it might move 5 bucks. I don't think you'll see anything like an iPhone or Store surprise. The release being this close already has the rumor priced in.

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27 minutes ago, JamesE said:

No margin on the trade. Macbooks are nice but they're not a major revenue/profit center for the company. It would cost +/-US$140K to get in with 1K shares and it might move 5 bucks. I don't think you'll see anything like an iPhone or Store surprise. The release being this close already has the rumor priced in.

i find wall street to be terrible at analyzing technology, was quite obvious nvidia was the leading graphics card manufacturer by far a decade ago and lots of news & comments of Intel being able to beat AMD last year in CPU's when AMD blows them completely out of the water

Being a tech guy before, I can say for sure these new macbooks will be revolutionary to the laptop market, the new chips solve all the issues that laptops have (light weight, energy efficient/long battery life, doesn't run hot, while still being super fast) and solve the issues of the macbook last year (small screen/16gb max ram). I'll be getting one to swap out the windows laptop I had to use because of last years macbook's shortcomings (small screen, 16gb ram). 

I wonder if wall street truely realizes how good the new macbook will be

Although apple stocks price action is usually negative on releases/earnings, even on beats. the run up into events i find are great opportunities to make a few % and then buying the dip afterwards on a knee jerk reaction is quite profitable. The "negative" news headline being pushed of iphone production being cut 10% makes me think stock is due to run up this time post release, or at least a run up into the release (this monday). 

I was long the stock in the high 130's but sold in case the job report tomorrow is negative 

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9 minutes ago, dj230 said:

I wonder if wall street truely realizes how good the new macbook will be

Wall Street doesn't care. The entire Mac product line is like 9% of overall revenue. But I'm with you on getting away from Windows. When my current PC starts showing its age I'm making the jump.

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45 minutes ago, JamesE said:

Wall Street doesn't care. The entire Mac product line is like 9% of overall revenue. But I'm with you on getting away from Windows. When my current PC starts showing its age I'm making the jump.

Well I have gone the other way because with the Macs they are junk. Bought first macbook 2014 and that was replaced under warrenty 8 months later, struggled on with that for another two years before I sold it as I was fed up with taking it back to be fixed with minor issues. 2016 bought a Macbook air, new battery after 5 months, new keyboard at 12 months. Looked nice so I kept it and just installed Windows on it as my old pc, running faultlessly since 2011, was just too slow. Of course upgraded SSD and new memory and Reduced the Mac os partition to 60 gb as the Mac os in my view is poor.  Upgraded Windows last week on it to Windows 11. So far faultless. So as for reliability of Apple products then my experience is not good, but they do look nice.

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43 minutes ago, JamesE said:

Wall Street doesn't care. The entire Mac product line is like 9% of overall revenue. But I'm with you on getting away from Windows. When my current PC starts showing its age I'm making the jump.

Wall street not caring is the best part, gives an opportunity to invest cheaper, I find tech stocks short term price action is un-predictable but long term, the investments work out great, just can't time the run up and when wall street starts realizing.

 

Surprisingly, after switching back to windows in a long time, I prefer the software on windows and operating system, its the hardware on windows PC's that is just not comparable to MacBook's. 

Battery life is horrible and they run super hot, most are slow unless you get a bulkier machine, but they run even hotter and battery life is non-existent. 

If you havn't had a chance to try the new M1 macbooks, should definitely see how practical they are, super fast and battery life is amazing, only issues I had was the low RAM made heavy multitasking slow and a 13 inch screen is too small for me.

I find the general public doesn't really catch on either until a few years, most of my friends have no clue what the difference is between a macbook air and a macbook pro, they just think theyre both macbooks.

 

Even I started getting behind on tech until a year or so ago, as I just upgraded to a 5G phone this year and tried fiber internet, I guess being frugal has it's disadvantages. If anyone hasn't upgraded to a 5G phone they'll be shocked how much faster it is, it's like going from dial up to broadband internet, 5G iphones were out 2 years ago and it would have been an obvious investment at the time. 

I think in a few years, i'll be saying the same about apple being an obvious investment in 2020/2021 because of the new macbooks, only time will tell. Most of my tax free savings investments are apple stock (can't day trade in that account)

 

  

23 minutes ago, gummy said:

Well I have gone the other way because with the Macs they are junk. Bought first macbook 2014 and that was replaced under warrenty 8 months later, struggled on with that for another two years before I sold it as I was fed up with taking it back to be fixed with minor issues. 2016 bought a Macbook air, new battery after 5 months, new keyboard at 12 months. Looked nice so I kept it and just installed Windows on it as my old pc, running faultlessly since 2011, was just too slow. Reduced the Mac os partition to 60 gb as the Mac os in my view is poor.  Upgraded Windows last week on it to Windows 11. So far faultless. So as for reliability of Apple products then my experience is not good, but they do look nice.

One benefit i find with macbooks is their warranty actually works, unlike a lot of PC manufacturers where you're SOL if something goes wrong. Apple usually replaces or fixes your product unless you damaged the product yourself

Resale value usually holds quite well on macbooks because of their performance and reliability in my experience, almost no one wants a used windows PC, if you ever try selling a pre-owned one, you'll probably get 50% of what it's actually worth 

I have to agree though, windows operating system seems more efficient in some ways and has more software availability. A lot of software runs better on windows because it’s more widely used, so developers are more focused on updating and optimizing software for windows, developers seem to just make software just good enough to run on macs so people can use it if they need it. 

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1 hour ago, gummy said:

Well I have gone the other way because with the Macs they are junk. Bought first macbook 2014 and that was replaced under warrenty 8 months later, struggled on with that for another two years before I sold it as I was fed up with taking it back to be fixed with minor issues. 2016 bought a Macbook air, new battery after 5 months, new keyboard at 12 months. Looked nice so I kept it and just installed Windows on it as my old pc, running faultlessly since 2011, was just too slow. Of course upgraded SSD and new memory and Reduced the Mac os partition to 60 gb as the Mac os in my view is poor.  Upgraded Windows last week on it to Windows 11. So far faultless. So as for reliability of Apple products then my experience is not good, but they do look nice.

Yeah, I've been thinking about it and fighting it for years. I'm not a fan of the UI but have no real idea either way about the OS. I've always been a fan of the "Generalism" of Windows. But effing Windows computers are obsolete when they come out of the box. I've got a Lenovo Yoga which replaced a Yoga Pro which had just gotten too slow. I still have that PC as my "travel" computer but even after I cleaned the thing up was soooooo..... slooooowwwwww... Now I only use it when my new POS Lenovo dies. I curse them both!

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11 minutes ago, JamesE said:

Yeah, I've been thinking about it and fighting it for years. I'm not a fan of the UI but have no real idea either way about the OS. I've always been a fan of the "Generalism" of Windows. But effing Windows computers are obsolete when they come out of the box. I've got a Lenovo Yoga which replaced a Yoga Pro which had just gotten too slow. I still have that PC as my "travel" computer but even after I cleaned the thing up was soooooo..... slooooowwwwww... Now I only use it when my new POS Lenovo dies. I curse them both!

I was only recalling to my wife recently about how computers, laptops in particular have changed so much over time. Yes you remark on slowness but I first bought a laptop in1990. It cost me £1100 pounds then and I ordered it from my boss at the time who had a company in Taiwan.  It had a hard disk 40 mb ! and I used to make a cup of tea whilst it was starting up. Nowadays we all expect an almost instant start-up. Windows 11 appears to start quicker than 10. My next laptop I think will be a 2 in 1 running Windows and android.

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2 hours ago, JamesE said:

Yeah, I've been thinking about it and fighting it for years. I'm not a fan of the UI but have no real idea either way about the OS. I've always been a fan of the "Generalism" of Windows. But effing Windows computers are obsolete when they come out of the box. I've got a Lenovo Yoga which replaced a Yoga Pro which had just gotten too slow. I still have that PC as my "travel" computer but even after I cleaned the thing up was soooooo..... slooooowwwwww... Now I only use it when my new POS Lenovo dies. I curse them both!

Not sure how good the returns are in Thailand but apple has been great in Canada with 0 hassle returns, no questions asked, you click return on the website, they give you a shipping label, drop off/pickup package with UPS.
Worst case you try it, don’t like it, get a refund. A lot of the reason to shop with apple in my opinion is the customer service. 


I got a Dell Alienware and the customer service has been horrible, I remember trying the XPS before returning it and they said I never sent it back, luckily I had video/pictures of everything or the credit card company said I’d be SOL and be out a few thousand. 

Edited by dj230
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Just to update the thread, ended up buying some more this morning and then sold it, it passed my 1% profit target and that's all I look for anyways on short term trades. Very rare some "almost guaranteed" trades happen in the market and I thought this was one of those opportunities. 

although I think it has potential to run up more before the event (especially when mainstream news media starts pushing the event news/new macbook, like CNBC) which is usually when the stock gets a last quick positive price movement shortly before a drop.

Although, even if it does dip, I am assuming the stock can run up into earnings which is in 14 days, it's had a beat the past few earnings report but it usually dips shortly after each call, whether the news is positive or negative.

 

I have shifted lots of my long term investment capital into apple, I think it will outperform the S&P500, this new laptop is going to be a big game changer in the laptop market in my opinion and make a lot of windows PC's obsolete for the same price, although one big factor it has yet to prove is it's gaming performance which is what macbooks have been lacking. The new rumoured GPU should do 'well' but one issues is not a lot of games have been developed for the new ARM processors (M1 chip) so they can't be ran, even if you run windows on the Macbook.

I am thinking this is one of the rare times a revolutionary technology is going to be added to everyday life (like 5G / fiber internet) and "ARM" like processors will be the future and x86 processors will be a thing of the past. I think intel is working on their own, but I wonder how it will be implemented and whether AMD will make theirs as well. 

 

Im betting this macbook is going to be sold out /backordered for a while as well, I wonder if I'll be able to buy the new macbook at all, if anyone knows how the supply is like to Thailand Apple on new releases, please let me know. In Canada the wait was roughly 1 month for the new macbooks/ipads last year, longer if you did any customizations. 

 

From what I understand the chip shortage issue should resolve soon increasing supply, (usually shortages last 2 years from what I have read, but im not familiar with how covid causing this shortage will effect the time horizen) and from what I have read the rumored rate hike shouldn't affect apple too much and mainly affects companies in their high growth phase and also I read Apple should do okay with higher inflation as they just increase their product prices.

 

I may revisit this thread in a year or two, could be wrong, but it just seems like too good of a chance to pass up.

 

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6 hours ago, JamesE said:

So, are the new Macbooks what you expected? The market liked the news a bit.

As expected or better, i was suprised the stock didn't go down after the event and after checking out more details on the macbook i can see why

in terms of the specs/ new design, everything was as expected new m1 chip, 32 core gpu, 64gb ram, new keyboard/magsafe

but what was not expected was how powerful the computer is, they compared it to several windows computers and showed it performed as good, or better with a lot less power (significantly less), they didn't show which laptops they were comparing it to, but after i found out they were some of the fastest windows laptops (i figured they'd compare it to some mediocre windows laptops). Actually in one comparison, they were comaparing it to the fastest windows GPU right now, which is a nvidia rtx 3080 running at 165watts, they showed similar performance with 1/3rd of the power.

- if anyone cares it was the MSI Raider GE76 (RTX 3080 model, pretty much top 3 fastest gaming laptops on the market right now that money can buy) and the Razer Blade 15 Advanced (RTX 3080 model) retail is around $4000-$5000 Canadian before taxes 

this pretty much means the only reason you'd buy a windows laptop is if you needed the windows operating system, as the macbook is going to be the same speed or faster, use less energy (significantly more battery life double-triple). The price is in line with windows high performance laptops as well, which they were comparing it to, actually cheaper in many instances, I tried ordering one but I guess thailand gets stuff later, wasn't available for shipping last night on the apple website but was on the canadian one. I contacted apple thailand and they said it's still pending government approval.

it looks like people are ordering the new macbook, went from being available for delivery in 1 week last night, to 4 weeks this morning, i wouldn't be surprised to see that backorder to 2-3 months, anyone who requires a high performance laptop and uses it for work (can justify the cost) will most likely be upgrading, it only makes sense. Faster computer, more battery life, more work done quicker, i.e justifiying the cost.

 

Was also surprised nvidia /amd stock go up, i am assuming their gpu's and cpu's will be obselete unless they change to what apple is doing.

 

i don't think it's priced in the stock, lots of the updates i got from investment advice sites I subscribe to say it was as expected and sentiment/outlook didn't change (most are advising to buy and hold apple), if the stock drops a bit more i'll most likely be buying more, theres always that one investment news site that releases some negative news report about something silly pushing the stock price down. 

In terms of what I expect from the stock, i am just hoping it beats the s&p500, which I think it will. I could care less about apples other products, this macbook is all that really matters as it's going to hands down take over the laptop market in my opinion. I am guessing people will realize in a few months once people have had it for a bit and word of mouth gets around, whether reviews from tech sites/bloggers, friends, etc. 

 

in terms of the new laptop some pros and cons

pros

- fastest laptop out there (while using less energy)

- best battery life (by far, to give an idea high performance windows laptops last a few hours)

- price is in line with competitors

 

cons

- cant run windows software (yet, although you can use things like parallels to boot windows some software still can't be ran)

- some software isn't optimized for the new M1 chip, so performance won't be on par with optimized apps, very curious if all apps will update. For example stock trading platform software i use isn't optimized for the new M1, means slower performance. 

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2 hours ago, dj230 said:

As expected or better, i was suprised the stock didn't go down after the event and after checking out more details on the macbook i can see why

in terms of the specs/ new design, everything was as expected new m1 chip, 32 core gpu, 64gb ram, new keyboard/magsafe

but what was not expected was how powerful the computer is, they compared it to several windows computers and showed it performed as good, or better with a lot less power (significantly less), they didn't show which laptops they were comparing it to, but after i found out they were some of the fastest windows laptops (i figured they'd compare it to some mediocre windows laptops). Actually in one comparison, they were comaparing it to the fastest windows GPU right now, which is a nvidia rtx 3080 running at 165watts, they showed similar performance with 1/3rd of the power.

- if anyone cares it was the MSI Raider GE76 (RTX 3080 model, pretty much top 3 fastest gaming laptops on the market right now that money can buy) and the Razer Blade 15 Advanced (RTX 3080 model) retail is around $4000-$5000 Canadian before taxes 

this pretty much means the only reason you'd buy a windows laptop is if you needed the windows operating system, as the macbook is going to be the same speed or faster, use less energy (significantly more battery life double-triple). The price is in line with windows high performance laptops as well, which they were comparing it to, actually cheaper in many instances, I tried ordering one but I guess thailand gets stuff later, wasn't available for shipping last night on the apple website but was on the canadian one. I contacted apple thailand and they said it's still pending government approval.

it looks like people are ordering the new macbook, went from being available for delivery in 1 week last night, to 4 weeks this morning, i wouldn't be surprised to see that backorder to 2-3 months, anyone who requires a high performance laptop and uses it for work (can justify the cost) will most likely be upgrading, it only makes sense. Faster computer, more battery life, more work done quicker, i.e justifiying the cost.

Was also surprised nvidia /amd stock go up, i am assuming their gpu's and cpu's will be obselete unless they change to what apple is doing.

i don't think it's priced in the stock, lots of the updates i got from investment advice sites I subscribe to say it was as expected and sentiment/outlook didn't change (most are advising to buy and hold apple), if the stock drops a bit more i'll most likely be buying more, theres always that one investment news site that releases some negative news report about something silly pushing the stock price down. 

In terms of what I expect from the stock, i am just hoping it beats the s&p500, which I think it will. I could care less about apples other products, this macbook is all that really matters as it's going to hands down take over the laptop market in my opinion. I am guessing people will realize in a few months once people have had it for a bit and word of mouth gets around, whether reviews from tech sites/bloggers, friends, etc. 

in terms of the new laptop some pros and cons

pros

- fastest laptop out there (while using less energy)

- best battery life (by far, to give an idea high performance windows laptops last a few hours)

- price is in line with competitors

cons

- cant run windows software (yet, although you can use things like parallels to boot windows some software still can't be ran)

- some software isn't optimized for the new M1 chip, so performance won't be on par with optimized apps, very curious if all apps will update. For example stock trading platform software i use isn't optimized for the new M1, means slower performance. 

just want to make a correction/note, the "fastest windows GPU" comment was referring to laptops only, as is all the other comments (desktop GPU's would out perform the new macbooks GPU)

one side note, one of the issues with laptop GPU's, as I have experienced myself is the cooling, because of this lots of manufactures underwatt their GPU. Two laptops both can have the same chip (graphics card) but one can be performing a lot better than the other, thats another thing that gets tricky when buying a laptop, you see 2 laptops with the same GPU and think, must be the same, but a lot has to do with the watts (power to the gpu). 

lots of times if the laptop cant cool the system, the computer ends up slowing down/decreasing power to the chips, thus you get a slower laptop overall. This doesn't really matter too much if you're just using a laptop to browse the web or watch videos but any high performance task is going to be slower if the laptop can't be cooled, this is another reason why the new macbook chips are going to be revolutionary in my opinon, this ceases to be an issue. Even the last generation of macbooks had an issue with this, where if you bought a higher performance macbook it would perform relatively the same because of cooling issues.

 

Also in terms of trading apple stock, i won't be trading it anymore (for now) as the main catalyst is over, although earnings is soon, it's unpredictable but this seemed like a pretty safe risk/reward ratio trade.

If anyones also thinking of importing a macbook (overseas) to get it quicker, the warranty is not valid in a different country than originally purchased (which is a huge reason to buy a macbook in the first place in my opinion) because of this, I will just have to wait until thailand approves them for sale.

 

Edited by dj230
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Sure the chip technology being engineered by Apple is impressive but MacBooks are not going to significantly drive the earnings of AAPL. They are in the phone & services business. Look at where they derive the bulk of their revenue from. Trying to scalp a percent here and there is not going to get you a pot of gold. Better to just buy and go along for the ride if you really believe in their products. The privacy and anti-tracking feature/option of the software makes them a notch above the others also. Many people are just not in a position to afford their premium pricing though. An apple a day.....

 

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14 hours ago, dj230 said:

Was also surprised nvidia /amd stock go up, i am assuming their gpu's and cpu's will be obselete unless they change to what apple is doing.

The big demand for GPU chips is in real-time AI, like self-driving cars. Tesla was using NVIDIA for a while but came up with a dual-processor board using a proprietary architecture and their own chips. I think Waymo, et al. are still using NVIDIA. Basically every car on the road that has any kind of driver-assist functionality is using a GPU as a dedicated processor. Just because Apple's SOAC architecture is great for a laptop doesn't mean the others are only looking at PC business.

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5 hours ago, JamesE said:

The big demand for GPU chips is in real-time AI, like self-driving cars. Tesla was using NVIDIA for a while but came up with a dual-processor board using a proprietary architecture and their own chips. I think Waymo, et al. are still using NVIDIA. Basically every car on the road that has any kind of driver-assist functionality is using a GPU as a dedicated processor. Just because Apple's SOAC architecture is great for a laptop doesn't mean the others are only looking at PC business.

I thought Tesla switched to AMD Gpu’s

 

everything is really just a computer in the end and if apple can provide (or another company) a GPU that runs at the same performance with less power, it’s inevitable companies will switch, especially if it’s something like an EV where power efficiency is even more important. That’s my thoughts at least. 

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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...
On 11/11/2021 at 6:58 AM, JamesE said:

Just ran across this: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/10/opinion/apple-microprocessor.html

Apparently the reviewer world is amazed by the top-end machines.

Although they are impressive they have some cons, I ended up getting one.

In terms of speed and efficiency, bar none, they're like the Tesla of computers right now, kind of crazy actually. 

Bootcamp stopped supporting apple silicone chips (never did I mean) and this is a big issue because anyone running software only available on Windows won't be able to use the machine. I am hoping as time goes on developers will end up supporting the new chips. 

Lots of compatibility/software issues. 

I got lucky I was able to get the software I needed to run on the MacBook or I would have had to return it and go back to my permanently plugged in windows gaming laptop (pretty much a portable desktop at that point).

I think if it wasn't for the battery life I would have tried getting a Razer blade 17 advanced, just for compatibility. That seems to be a big downfall right now with the new MacBooks, if you don't use any high performance windows software though, it would be a perfect laptop (needing windows software to run fast/smooth)

Now there's talk about the Apple car and the "M1" type of chips running in electric vehicles, would make sense as efficiency in something like an electric vehicle would be crucial and the M1 Max chip showing similar performance as an Nvidia RTX 3080 (fastest mobile GPU) with way less power. 

I think once the compatibility / software issues are all solved in the future, is when people will realize the true performance of the new apple chips.

 

stock is doing well, but history tells me when stock investment "news" starts talking about the apple car, it's time to sell and take profits so I am selling all my apple shares today

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I'm on a M1 processor, this just works for you or it doesn't.
If you need virtualization your in bad place.


Buying or Selling before the Mac moments a year is not a good momentum to sell or buy. It's when other stuff happens too AAPL.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 11/20/2021 at 5:40 PM, Shark said:

I'm on a M1 processor, this just works for you or it doesn't.
If you need virtualization your in bad place.


Buying or Selling before the Mac moments a year is not a good momentum to sell or buy. It's when other stuff happens too AAPL.

Agreed, such a shame though, very efficient and practical laptop just the software is so dated due to companies not developing new software to run natively on M1 processors. Maybe in the future but at the moment unless the software you use is updated/developed for M1, it’s buggy/dated 

 

I ordered another windows laptop instead and will wait to switch back to macs 
 

Apple stock has always been choppy, but I’ve learned in the short time I’ve been in the markets you never go broke taking profits. Up 14% in a month or so, I think that’s great returns considering most hedge funds are happy with 20% in a year. Plus markets at all time highs, new covid variant, seems like I locked in profits at a great time with AAPL hitting all time highs. Also after trying the new MacBook, I was less impressed than I originally thought I would be. Plus the new intel processor alder lake is supposedly faster (although less efficient) but it also tries to take advantage of similar architecture to the M1. 
 

 

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On 11/28/2021 at 6:55 PM, dj230 said:

Agreed, such a shame though, very efficient and practical laptop just the software is so dated due to companies not developing new software to run natively on M1 processors. Maybe in the future but at the moment unless the software you use is updated/developed for M1, it’s buggy/dated 

I ordered another windows laptop instead and will wait to switch back to macs 
 

Apple stock has always been choppy, but I’ve learned in the short time I’ve been in the markets you never go broke taking profits. Up 14% in a month or so, I think that’s great returns considering most hedge funds are happy with 20% in a year. Plus markets at all time highs, new covid variant, seems like I locked in profits at a great time with AAPL hitting all time highs. Also after trying the new MacBook, I was less impressed than I originally thought I would be. Plus the new intel processor alder lake is supposedly faster (although less efficient) but it also tries to take advantage of similar architecture to the M1. 
 

Sorry was AFK for a bit so my reply on your text needed to wait till now, sorry to keep you in the dark.

First my general computing experience on the M1 is fine, you don't need anything it's really the virt. layer if you like myself before on my macbook pro  (i9 cpu) 32GB of ram run full blown virtualization to show customers what is what... well then this architecture isn't the right one.

That's good that you had some good pricing for stocks and your in the plus 14% that's good... perhaps dump them after xmas ;-).

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