News Forum - FTI warns Thailand must reopen to international tourists

[dirkzett]

Bye bye Thailand.
Last high season I hoped that the Thai government could think economically.
 The hope has been dashed, just as my life and work as a diving instructor on Phuket has disappeared.
I am now going to the Caribbean.... and will build up something there and of course share this with all my customers.

Even before Corona, Thailand lived only on its own legend. But at some point, every story becomes unbelievable when it is only a fairy tale.

Mexico, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Colombia, all countries with white beaches, great reefs and full of joie de vivre and all of them welcome tourists without these restrictions.

 

[Soidog]

7 hours ago, Cathat said:

I don't believe for 1 second that the thai  GDP is positive.

The official figures just for tourism is 20 percent and when you take the amount of invisible cash into account it is probably more like 25 to 30 percent yet they want us to believe gdp is increasing with that cash cow removed.

Industrial exports are suffering big time also.

One percent increase,no way,the country is in deep reccesion and is probably on the verge of an economic meltdown.as to the alleged banks stuffed with money,well why are they not using the liquidity,why is the baht falling and why have the banks recently reduced the deposit protection amounts.

I was a bangkok resident all through the years of the asian economic crisis and things were a lot better for most people during those times.

I don't recall people quing up for charity food in those days.

I agree with much of what you have said. I guess the 1% GDP increase is compared to the 6% contraction last year. I think that’s possible for exports, as much of the world is now opening up again. 
 

Your point regarding liquidity of the banks and indeed central government I fully agree with. Why aren’t they doing more to help people by spending the people’s money? I understand their fear of higher borrowing to GDP after the 1997 crash. However, it seems odd you would sit there with billions of dollars in foreign reserves and not spend it. If not now, then when? Something very wrong with what we are being told. 

[Poolie]

19 hours ago, Guevara said:

You obviously don't have the stamina to jump through all the hoops they keep creating 555 Like you, I'm looking more west than East. About time a paid Cuba another visit.

Will no-one think of the hoops?

[JohninDublin]

On 10/9/2021 at 12:16 PM, Jason said:

 International visitors are fully vaccinated (they have to be to travel)

Not necessarily. There are those countries that will allow tourists on the back of a negative PCR test.

[JohninDublin]

22 hours ago, Stonker said:

Which "other holiday destinations"?

All those in direct competition have similar restrictions.

Not sure if you mean "those" as in SEA, but Peru, Brazil and Colombia are open to those with a pre-flight negative PCR test.

[JohninDublin]

21 hours ago, Malc-Thai said:

"He argues that now that 40% to 50% of the population of Thailand has been vaccinated, "

Just looking at covid vaccinations in Thailand, it says 49% had first dose and only 32% had second dose! Many are AstraZeneca and a 12 week interval between doses 

Why do they still think and say if you had a first vaccine yesterday you count as vaccinated!  

The guidance on AZ is now down to 8 week intervals in Europe. 

Regarding the rest of your post, as others have pointed out, we have to be circumspect about those we can consider truly vaccinated when you factor in Sinovax.

[JohninDublin]

20 hours ago, ace035 said:

Open everything up with the exception of the nightlife industries

Boo! Spoilsport! (hahaha)

[MikeTexas]

15 hours ago, Soidog said:

What do you mean by similar destinations? Do you mean geographically? Or do you mean the weather and cost of living while there? 
 

Yes.  Similar destinations would be geographically similar in distance and cost for both travel and the stay and would offer the same type of experience.  Thailand offers tropical beaches and/or mountains for relatively low cost. I would think the Philippines, Vietnam and parts of Malaysia or Indonesia would be the closets competitors.  Laos might even be a competitor for some of the backpackers thinking about Chiang Mai.   Most of the other pacific and Caribbean islands would cost more so while some tourism could certainly be lost to them I wouldn't put them as direct competitors except to the wealthier tourist (which is a smaller group). 
Most importantly, they are worried about people not coming back to Thailand when it reopens because people could find new favorite places to go back to each year.  Of course the other places would also have to be open now and provide a better experience than Thailand to actually take tourism away from Thailand long term.  I don't mass migration away from Thailand because if those places could do that then the trend would have already started.  Sure there will be loses but I think it will be more from Thailand's policies and from people looking for the next best place that hasn't been ruined by tourism - not because the country was closed during a pandemic. 

[JohninDublin]

11 hours ago, Cathat said:

I don't believe for 1 second that the thai  GDP is positive.

The official figures just for tourism is 20 percent and when you take the amount of invisible cash into account it is probably more like 25 to 30 percent yet they want us to believe gdp is increasing with that cash cow removed.

Industrial exports are suffering big time also.

One percent increase,no way,the country is in deep reccesion and is probably on the verge of an economic meltdown.as to the alleged banks stuffed with money,well why are they not using the liquidity,why is the baht falling and why have the banks recently reduced the deposit protection amounts.

I was a bangkok resident all through the years of the asian economic crisis and things were a lot better for most people during those times.

I don't recall people quing up for charity food in those days.

I am not sure that I understand the 1% figure. But if it is about year on year growth, that should be possible. Of course if you have an economy where 18% of GDP is dependent on tourism, and that would include internal tourism, if the figure for this year was zero, and all other things being equal, Thai GDP would rise to 83% of 2019 GDP. And hypothetically, if GDP were to rise 10% next year, that is still only 10% of 83%.

[JohninDublin]

4 hours ago, AlexPTY said:

it allegedly came from bats, right? see the reason?

And today's prize for funniest comment goes to....

[JohninDublin]

5 hours ago, Bob20 said:

This is an old and discredited discussion. Take the time to read up on the science before you comment.

There is a reason why governments set vaccination targets before opening up. 

Countries around the world don't delay indefinitely, but open up when they can take a calculated risk.

What Thailand is doing is publicly declare a target, and then recklessly ignore it, which can result in a spike in cases and deaths, like in Phuket, like last year with Songkran etc.

That would be followed by new lockdowns and starting from scratch, which would be even more disastrous.

The people advocating opening up for economic reasons have mostly been double jabbed and feel secure. And their attitude now shows selfishness towards others who didn't get a vaccine yet (or had a useless one). 

No respect for that type of people at all!

I too am in favour of caution. Not a lot of point in building something without first making sure the foundations are solid.

[Bob20]

5 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

I too am in favour of caution. Not a lot of point in building something without first making sure the foundations are solid.

It's disheartening how the government knows that they need to reach a certain vaccination level (like they clearly stated with Phuket) when each time they clearly say 70% of the population must be vaccinated.

And then they knowingly go ahead whilst they've not reached it by a long shot, with spiking infection rates and deaths. And then keep going for good measure, ignoring all the safety-nets they set.

Incompetence at best, criminal behaviour at worst.

[Stonker]

1 hour ago, JohninDubin said:

Not sure if you mean "those" as in SEA, but Peru, Brazil and Colombia are open to those with a pre-flight negative PCR test.

I mean "all those in direct competition", with no caveats or reservations.

I'm not suggesting there's anything wrong with Peru, Brazil or Columbia as holiday destinations, or Iceland or the Holy Roman See, but they're not direct competition.

[JohninDublin]

27 minutes ago, Stonker said:

I mean "all those in direct competition", with no caveats or reservations.

I'm not suggesting there's anything wrong with Peru, Brazil or Columbia as holiday destinations, or Iceland or the Holy Roman See, but they're not direct competition.

Sorry if you misunderstood the intent behind my post. I was just trying to clarify whether you were referring to SEA specifically. My reference to Peru etc, was in case you were not.

[Soidog]

2 hours ago, MikeTexas said:

Yes.  Similar destinations would be geographically similar in distance and cost for both travel and the stay and would offer the same type of experience.  Thailand offers tropical beaches and/or mountains for relatively low cost. I would think the Philippines, Vietnam and parts of Malaysia or Indonesia would be the closets competitors.  Laos might even be a competitor for some of the backpackers thinking about Chiang Mai.   Most of the other pacific and Caribbean islands would cost more so while some tourism could certainly be lost to them I wouldn't put them as direct competitors except to the wealthier tourist (which is a smaller group). 
Most importantly, they are worried about people not coming back to Thailand when it reopens because people could find new favorite places to go back to each year.  Of course the other places would also have to be open now and provide a better experience than Thailand to actually take tourism away from Thailand long term.  I don't mass migration away from Thailand because if those places could do that then the trend would have already started.  Sure there will be loses but I think it will be more from Thailand's policies and from people looking for the next best place that hasn't been ruined by tourism - not because the country was closed during a pandemic. 

Yes I think some fair pints you raise there. I do however think that there was already some movement away from Thailand since around 2016. I know TAT kept showing ever increasing arrivals, but that’s not what I saw in a number of locations throughout the year. The strong Thai baht also discouraged many visitors and the high in-flow of mass package tours from China also didn’t help with many traditional travellers. It will indeed be interesting to see what happens in the coming three years.  

[Marc26]

23 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Yes I think some fair pints you raise there. I do however think that there was already some movement away from Thailand since around 2016. I know TAT kept showing ever increasing arrivals, but that’s not what I saw in a number of locations throughout the year. The strong Thai baht also discouraged many visitors and the high in-flow of mass package tours from China also didn’t help with many traditional travellers. It will indeed be interesting to see what happens in the coming three years.  

I love Thailand 

It's my wife's home and I always have a good time there

 

But I don't think it's beaches or mountains compare to many other places in the world you can go to

 

That's not a complaint 

I love a lot of their beaches

I've been to some pretty decent national parks

But I just don't think they are anywhere as good as you can get in some of the other places 

[Marc26]

13 hours ago, smartcontrol said:

Thailand has shown the tourist there are many other better places to go. we just did not look at them before. now that I have been to Costa Rica, I will never go to Thailand again. it does not make any difference what Thailand does now.  I did not know what I was missing. absents makes the heart wonder.

I love Costa Rica

And I do think they are better towards tourists 

 

But the food doesn't compare to Thailand 

All of Central America, with the exception of Mexico, I find the food not all that great

Some dishes are good.

And they just don't seem to have the same passion for their food

Try and chat up a local about what their favorite foods are and they don't come up with much 

 

In Costa Rica, Chifrio is my favorite dish

[Stonker]

1 hour ago, JohninDubin said:

Sorry if you misunderstood the intent behind my post. I was just trying to clarify whether you were referring to SEA specifically. My reference to Peru etc, was in case you were not.

Understood. I just don't see most countries suggested as direct competition, from the Maldives to Brazil, for any number of reasons which others here have amply covered.

[Leeshard]

The Thai government will open up its airports again when the economic pain becomes too great, regardless of any covid statistics. Why would the Thai government care about a few Covid deaths when they’ve plunged millions of their own citizens into abject poverty and near starvation, destroyed tens of thousands of jobs and businesses and cancelled thousands of life saving operations because they filled up their hospitals with perfectly fit and well asymptomatic people because they tested positive with a highly unreliable PCR test. Jeez, we might as well be living back in the dark ages when we used to burn witches because of our superstitions.

Edited October 11, 2021 by Leeshard

[Donald]

According to the corona gurus this "virus" is going to stay with us. The vaccinations don't do what they are supposed to do, besides making a political statement, most people seem to survive a corona infection though. What people will not survive however are the crippling economic consequences of the lock downs and other incomprehensible "measures". Stress, hunger, depression, malnutrition. All very bad if having to battle diseases of any sort, but all there as a result of brainless measures that deprives people from making a living. I realize that anything I say that contravenes the going narrative from governments and main stream media will meet harsh criticism. But that just shows that brainwashing does work. That and the fact that all the vocal defenders of an eternal lockdown and never ending measures are all those who have a "secure" income with not an iota of understanding and sympathy  for the billions that have lost their basic means of survival. Just have a look at the rates of the suicides in the land of smiles.

[Leeshard]

43 minutes ago, Donald said:

According to the corona gurus this "virus" is going to stay with us. The vaccinations don't do what they are supposed to do, besides making a political statement, most people seem to survive a corona infection though. What people will not survive however are the crippling economic consequences of the lock downs and other incomprehensible "measures". Stress, hunger, depression, malnutrition. All very bad if having to battle diseases of any sort, but all there as a result of brainless measures that deprives people from making a living. I realize that anything I say that contravenes the going narrative from governments and main stream media will meet harsh criticism. But that just shows that brainwashing does work. That and the fact that all the vocal defenders of an eternal lockdown and never ending measures are all those who have a "secure" income with not an iota of understanding and sympathy  for the billions that have lost their basic means of survival. Just have a look at the rates of the suicides in the land of smiles.

No criticism from me! Lower respiratory tract infections (of which covid19 is just one of many) are the 3rd most common cause of death after heart disease and cancer. So before we’re all bored to death by The Thaiger by daily infection and death rates for covid19 please can these be put into context by deaths from all other causes? Suicides by despair and depression and car accidents included please AND broken down by individual province too, of course.

Edited October 11, 2021 by Leeshard