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Poland - Is the EU starting to crumble


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18 minutes ago, Convert54 said:

While that outcome involving leadership by the UK remains relegated to theory the vision of Boris trundling into the EU Parliament and proceeding to disjointedly "err, um, etc" as  is really quite funny !

I've just spent the last 5 minutes laughing at the image you have just created in my mind. The thing about leadership is that you have to have an ability for linear thinking, something that Bojo last exhibited when he was plotting to become PM.

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3 hours ago, JohninDubin said:

Regarding the 2016 referendum my issue with that it was probably the worst run attempt at popular democracy in the history of the UK. Research after the poll showed that of the 52% who voted leave, most were voting for a variety of different options. Farage in particular told people that if they voted to leave, they could have the "Norway option", effectively "associate membership". After the vote was won, he then said that he feared that we would accept "... a Norway type deal...which is not what the country voted for"

Others were advocating "clean break", "Canada", "Canada +" "Canada++". "Swiss". "Customs Union" to name but a few. But of the 52% who voted leave, 31% voted because of free movement, with many of those hoping to see total repatriation of EU migrants. We never saw any pro-Brexit politicians stating the obvious, that with 3 mill EU migrants and an unemployment figure of 1.5 mill, this was going to lead to labour shortages. And look at what we have today. The same applied to those who having read distorted stories in The Sun, thought that they were voting to leave the ECHR. No pro-Brexit campaigners as far as I am aware, ever did anything to point out these issues. It was also predicted by remainers,  that that the £ would take a big hit. It went from €1.32 to €1.15 overnight and currently stands at €1.175 having been as low as €1.06. And of course there were also predictions of supply chain disruptions if there was a clean break. Do you recall the scenes from Dover at last Xmas/New Year.

Many of the predictions that were made came through, though Osborne in particular tended to be OTT. However, every time someone predicted bad news, it was met with "Project Fear". How could people possibly believe that their dream of repatriating 3 mill Poles etc, was not going to lead to labour shortages? Why were the pro-Brexit politicians ignoring this glaringly obvious fact? 

Then there those who said if the vote to leave was successful, there would be a second vote on whether to accept the deal the EU was offering. Suddenly, they decided that there should be no vote because the referendum "must be respected". Regarding a deal with the EU, the battle cry of the day was, "They need us more than we need them. Of course we are going to get a better deal outside than in the EU. The German car manufacturers wont let Merkle give us a bad deal". Of course, as reality set in, that battle cry became a silent thought in the minds of the deluded. It was so obvious that if they gave us a better deal because we left, then all the other countries would also leave.

The fact is that this country was saved from economic disaster because there were sufficient MP's who prevented Bojo crashing out in his do or die style. You only have to look at the chaos of Dover for proof of that. 

Oh! BTW, did I mention the bus? You know the one I mean I take it? The one that suggested that if we left the EU, we would be able to spend an extra £350 mill a week on the NHS? Of course the problem with that was that our nett contributions were only £155 mill per week. If I am honest with you, I think that became Bojo's Achilles heel. The morning after the vote, I watched three interviews in succession regarding Cameron, Merkle and Bojo. The first announced his resignation. The next showed Merkle who was stunned and dismayed by the vote. Then it was the turn of Bojo, who was now considered to be the PM in waiting. He was asked about the £350 mill, and suddenly it changed to, "Maybe not £350 mill. Maybe £100 mill for now". When asked what the next step would be, he said,  "We need to enter into some non-negotiation negotiations". As soon as Merkle it became obvious to her that not only had Bojo expected to lose the vote, but as we have now come to expect from him, he did not have a clue what to do next". By 4.00 pm that day, Merkle was standing shoulder to shoulder with the French and Italian PM's and stated that there will be no negotiations until they had received the A.50 letter.

The ERM incident was a total fiasco, and stemmed from the stupidity of Lamont saying that he was going to defend the £ at all costs in the ERM. When Soros heard this he knew he was on a one-way ticket to success, as he was trading the £ on a 20% margin, thus leveraging the potential losses of the £ at 5:1. Off topic slightly, but had we joined the Euro, the £ in our pocket would have 13% greater purchasing power than it has today.

I stand corrected on the "many" Commisioners who were re-appointed. In defence of my mistake, apart from it being one of the lesser articles I was familiar with I did not factor in that many of those appointed were appointed by govs that had since changed. I think it more be more accurate to say that many of those who were reappointed had the benefit of continuity of the govs that had originally  appointed them. But you are correct. As for your trying to put words into my mouth, I do not accept you characterisation. Some were guilty of corruption, but the majority of the then Commissioners accepted they were negligent in not spotting this. 

This post SHOULD be on the front page of every newspaper in the UK.

Brexiteers you got sold a pup. It was all a charade. Nothing but lies, slogans and vacuous promises about sunny uplands and unicorns. Look at the state the country is in now.

Its astonishing that this is now described as a "transition period" where before it was called "project fear". Project reality is nearer to it.

The fact is the rich and shameless wanted out of the EU before it brought in legislation regarding tax avoidance in tax havens. 

Thats the crux of the matter. You were lied to. They took you all for fools.

Does that not make you angry?

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40 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

I've just spent the last 5 minutes laughing at the image you have just created in my mind. The thing about leadership is that you have to have an ability for linear thinking, something that Bojo last exhibited when he was plotting to become PM.

Lets not refer to him as Bojo please. That conjures up images of something which is fluffy and benevolent.

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1 hour ago, Rookiescot said:

Lets not refer to him as Bojo please. That conjures up images of something which is fluffy and benevolent.

It sounds (aptly) correct to me. Bozo, Coco and Bojo all sound like clown names to me.

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19 hours ago, palooka said:

Countries wishing to join need to have:

  • stable institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities;
  • a functioning market economy and the capacity to cope with competition and market forces in the EU;
  • the ability to take on and implement effectively the obligations of membership, including adherence to the aims of...
  • A functioning market economy cannot happen if the country is broke, so your stement that they do not need a penny in the bank is..... Leave that adjective to your imagination.            The money was borrowed from a group of corporate banks for a very high interest for a short period of time.
  •  

Sorry but that's just nonsense -  the last paragraph, presumably written by you, though it looks like you are trying to present it as a stated condition for joining, not only makes zero sense, but would also break the rules on fiscal responsibility which would preclude them from membership.

A country not necessarily cash rich, isn't necessarily 'broke'. Trillions in reserve was not and has never been a condition for EU membership. 

Your corporate banker friend is telling you porkies !

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19 hours ago, palooka said:
Greece admits fudging euro entry
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/40527000/jpg/_40527313_greeceafp203b.jpg
Greece's finance minister has vowed to tackle the deficit
Greece has admitted it joined the euro in 2001 on the basis of figures that showed its budget deficit to be much lower than it really was.

Eurozone states are expected to have deficits below 3% of gross domestic product but revised data show Greece has exceeded that limit since 1999.

The figures are being discussed at a meeting between EU finance ministers.

Greece's membership of the single currency would not, however, be questioned, the EU has said.

Greek press reports suggest the country's budget deficit in 1999 was 3.38%.

'Double standards'

Eurostat, the EU's statistics agency, visited Athens last week to examine Greece's budget figures.

Greece had already said that its public deficit breached the European Union cap between 2000 and 2003, as the cost of hosting the 2004 summer Olympics reached 7bn euros (£4.8bn).

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/start_quote_rb.gif [East European] countries will say the European Central Bank wants them to be holier than the Popehttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/end_quote_rb.gif
Katinka Barysch
Chief economist, Centre for European Reform

But Greece's finance ministry had claimed that the country's 1999 deficit, on the basis of which Greece was allowed to join the euro in 2001, was below the limit.

"It has been proven that Greece's budget deficit never fell below 3% since 1999," finance minister George Alogoskoufis admitted on Monday.

Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, said the announcement would not be a surprise for Brussels insiders.

"Quite a few member states did something similar because of the political imperative to join the euro as soon as possible. Greece has just gone a bit further," she said.

France and Germany have previously defied the 3% limit.

With the European Central Bank (ECB) currently telling East European member states that want to join the euro that they must strictly adhere to the 3% rule, the EU risks being accused of double standards, Ms Barysch said.

"These countries will say the ECB wants them to be holier than the Pope," she added.

A decision on possible disciplinary action against Greece is not expected until December.
 

 
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif
SEE ALSO:
Greece vows to cut budget deficit
05 Nov 04 |  Business
Deficit woe for Greece post-games
02 Nov 04 |  Business
Greek debt spirals after Olympics
12 Sep 04 |  Business
Olympic costs hit Greek deficit
04 Aug 04 |  Business
Olympics 'may cost Greece dear'
02 Jun 04 |  Business
Greek budget mess earns EU rebuke
20 May 04 |  Business
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Sorry but where does it say they borrowed shedloads of money to join the EU ? Everything you have posted comes under cooking the books at worst in order perhaps to fake fiscal competence, its deflection. You stated you had a corporate friend who got rich lending money to countries to join the EU - I'm telling you he didn't.

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13 hours ago, Fester said:

To say racism was "comfortably the No 1 driving force" is rubbish and not at all appropriate. Now you add accusations of cowardice to this garbage. How many of these "overweight slobs" had a stage or were even listened to? Really? You're just making stuff up and your rant just gets worse from there.

Had to read that a few times to make it comprehensible. Brexit was largely based on racism or xenophobia if you prefer. Only a fool would suggest otherwise. Which publications led the charge ? The Sun (always been a passionate hater of everything european), which figures led the charge ? Farage etc etc. 

Have you really gone through all your life without encountering the racist moron in his local bar boring the bejasus out of everyone amongst his fellow like minded friends (prior to getting in a scrap then being carted off to hospital to be treated by the people he's just demanded should be thrown out) but then asked in public if he is a racist would 99.9% of the time say no - because most racists are cowards 100%.

What stage did the slobs have ? errrr the largest selling daily publication in the UK for a start. They didn't need anyone to listen to them, they had a prime minister who made a catastrophic miscalculation as to the general IQ of the UK public.

So what's made up ?

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13 hours ago, Fluke said:

British people and Europeans are of the same race though, or was you suggesting that British people are racist against White people and left  the E.U because of that racism ?

You are correct - I should have said xenophobic, but both are covered by a general low IQ so the lines were blurred.

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16 minutes ago, Benroon said:

Had to read that a few times to make it comprehensible. Brexit was largely based on racism or xenophobia if you prefer. Only a fool would suggest otherwise. Which publications led the charge ? The Sun (always been a passionate hater of everything european), which figures led the charge ? Farage etc etc. 

Have you really gone through all your life without encountering the racist moron in his local bar boring the bejasus out of everyone amongst his fellow like minded friends (prior to getting in a scrap then being carted off to hospital to be treated by the people he's just demanded should be thrown out) but then asked in public if he is a racist would 99.9% of the time say no - because most racists are cowards 100%.

What stage did the slobs have ? errrr the largest selling daily publication in the UK for a start. They didn't need anyone to listen to them, they had a prime minister who made a catastrophic miscalculation as to the general IQ of the UK public.

So what's made up ?

You complain about comprehension then scribble this tosh down? 

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5 minutes ago, Fester said:

You complain about comprehension then scribble this tosh down? 

So explain what's wrong with it/discredit it/disprove it/offer something of interest - because currently you've sailed/trolled all through this thread telling people they are talking rot but not saying why - soundbites and quips ! Its a brexiteer trait.

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3 hours ago, Benroon said:

Sorry but that's just nonsense -  the last paragraph, presumably written by you, though it looks like you are trying to present it as a stated condition for joining, not only makes zero sense, but would also break the rules on fiscal responsibility which would preclude them from membership.

A country not necessarily cash rich, isn't necessarily 'broke'. Trillions in reserve was not and has never been a condition for EU membership. 

Your corporate banker friend is telling you porkies !

As I've suggested elsewhere in this thread, the original post from Palooka is clearly wrong. Italy did not cheat their way into the EU by cooking the books. Italy were founder members of the European Coal and Steel Community which later changed it's name to the EEC, then EC and eventually, the EU. When Italy joined (1952), there was not the type of financial scrutiny. 

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2 hours ago, Benroon said:

Had to read that a few times to make it comprehensible. Brexit was largely based on racism or xenophobia if you prefer. Only a fool would suggest otherwise. Which publications led the charge ? The Sun (always been a passionate hater of everything european), which figures led the charge ? Farage etc etc. 

Have you really gone through all your life without encountering the racist moron in his local bar boring the bejasus out of everyone amongst his fellow like minded friends (prior to getting in a scrap then being carted off to hospital to be treated by the people he's just demanded should be thrown out) but then asked in public if he is a racist would 99.9% of the time say no - because most racists are cowards 100%.

What stage did the slobs have ? errrr the largest selling daily publication in the UK for a start. They didn't need anyone to listen to them, they had a prime minister who made a catastrophic miscalculation as to the general IQ of the UK public.

So what's made up ?

Just some points to add to your post: Following the Brexit vote, an opinion poll was carried out trying to identify why people voted "leave". The most common primary reason given was to end free movement (31%).

As for racism, I've often said that the only difference between a Pole and a Black man as far as many racists were concerned, was that they didn't hate the Pole until they heard his accent. In case anyone wants to tell me that Poles are white, so hating them cannot be racist, I would point out that Poles are from the Slav ethnic race, as are most E. Europeans.

Then there are those who will deny that they are racists. There used to be a time when you could call a racist "a racist", and they would respond, "Yes, and I'm proud of it too". The more that racism was associated with knuckle scraping Neanderthals, the less willing they were to admit to this. Nowadays, it is very common to hear someone say something like, "I am not racist but...." and the next words out of their mouth would be something outrageously racist.

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11 hours ago, Soidog said:

Sorry but it’s not “Off Topic”. The question relates to how the EU could crumble. Surely lessons learned from the past and understanding why the U.K. people voted to leave is extremely relevant. 
 

Im not going to waste my time reading an article from such a biased left wing source as The Guardian. Hardly a balanced piece, just as The Telegraph would be a right wing bias 

FYI I am a UK citizen. Guardian journalism is well respected and has received many awards for professionalism. However, out of curiosity what media outlets do you view as credible?

People will have differing interpretations on why UK nationals voted to Leave. Personally I think Cameron completely stuffed up the referendum, should have required a reasonable majority vote to e.g. 60%, whereas getting the Leave vote by a very small percentile provided for ongoing social and political upheaval. IMO the Leave campaign was a disgrace, full of misinformation and nativist populism. Guess will have to wait another 5/10 years to see if UK deems Brexit a success for the future of UK society or not.

It is only speculative opinion whether EU will fail or succeed into the future. Obviously there are those who cheer on the possible fall of the EU. Based upon posts in this forum do they want an authoritarian government in their home countries, if so something I cannot comprehend.

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8 hours ago, 23RD said:

God Bless Poland and Hungary looking after the interest of their People first.

As both countries do not comply to EU agreements they should pull out of the EU, no more subsidies, preferential trade etc etc. Both government are complete hypocrites. In the case of Hungary the ruling party if massively corrupt and actively suppresses freedoms of speech etc and you support them??? Poland is suppressing freedom of speech and minority rights, yet you support them??? It's a pity EU cannot proactively remove them.

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20 minutes ago, PBS said:

FYI I am a UK citizen. Guardian journalism is well respected and has received many awards for professionalism. However, out of curiosity what media outlets do you view as credible?

People will have differing interpretations on why UK nationals voted to Leave. Personally I think Cameron completely stuffed up the referendum, should have required a reasonable majority vote to e.g. 60%, whereas getting the Leave vote by a very small percentile provided for ongoing social and political upheaval. IMO the Leave campaign was a disgrace, full of misinformation and nativist populism. Guess will have to wait another 5/10 years to see if UK deems Brexit a success for the future of UK society or not.

It is only speculative opinion whether EU will fail or succeed into the future. Obviously there are those who cheer on the possible fall of the EU. Based upon posts in this forum do they want an authoritarian government in their home countries, if so something I cannot comprehend.

No one single media outlet is unbiased and totally impartial. I watch a range of news outlets from the BBC, to Al Jazeera to Euro News and if I’m really looking for a laugh, Sky. Newspapers I’ll read The Telegraph and The Mail. Both biased news reporting that I do for a little entertainment. 
 

As you say, we will have to wait 5-10 years and even then it will be hard to judge if it’s a success. How will we know how the U.K. would have faired partially  inside the EU? The U.K. was never a member of the single currency or Schengan area. One thing is for certain. The apocalyptic views given by some pro EU voters would have seen the country already in total economic collapse. I would personally liked us to have remained inside an EEC style EU. Not the Federalist EU people like von der Leyen or leaders like Macron want. 

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5 hours ago, Benroon said:

Sorry but where does it say they borrowed shedloads of money to join the EU ? Everything you have posted comes under cooking the books at worst in order perhaps to fake fiscal competence, its deflection. You stated you had a corporate friend who got rich lending money to countries to join the EU - I'm telling you he didn't.

Where there is smoke there is fire, and the EU house is smoking.

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9 hours ago, 23RD said:

God Bless Poland and Hungary looking after the interest of their People first.

I seriously doubt that they are looking after their own people's interests. Populists generally have a poor record of working for the good of their own people because their number one project becomes holding on to the reins of power once they have hold of them.

In the case of both Hungary and Poland, they are being heavily criticised by the EU for their attacks on press freedom, judicial independence and the rule of law. How simple it is to tell most of their people that EU membership is like still being under Russian control. As I've said elsewhere on this thread, when the EU starts sending tanks into Budapest, or murdering the Polish Officer class and intelligentsia, ending voting etc,  all of which the Russians did, then I will take that claim seriously.

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11 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

seriously doubt that they are looking after their own people's interests. Populists generally have a poor record of working for the good of their own people

But both Governments had a vast mandate given to them by the majority off their voters John are they not more legitimate that for example in your own native Country where Fine Fail/Fine Gael ignored the voters mandate in the last election to form a coalition to keep Sinn Fein out of Government?

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6 hours ago, Benroon said:

You are correct - I should have said xenophobic, but both are covered by a general low IQ so the lines were blurred.

Wanting what you think is best for your Country , doesnt mean that you dislike other Countries , 

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On 10/9/2021 at 2:18 PM, Rookiescot said:

Nope. Poland is not going to leave the EU.

This is just some right wing nutjobs appealing to their supporters using dog whistles like sovereignty. 

As the UK is now finding out. You cant eat sovereignty. 

Top comment!

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25 minutes ago, 23RD said:

But both Governments had a vast mandate given to them by the majority off their voters John are they not more legitimate that for example in your own native Country where Fine Fail/Fine Gael ignored the voters mandate in the last election to form a coalition to keep Sinn Fein out of Government?

There are plenty of examples populists getting vast mandates and then failing to deliver. It helps of course, if you are gov that is not ashamed to censor opposing media which is the case in both Hungary and Poland.

Some useful reading for you: https://www.transparency.org/en/blog/hungarys-rule-of-law-backsliding-continues-amidst-the-covid-19-crisis

And if you think that Hungary might have a case to answer, take a look at Poland: https://www.transparency.org/en/blog/corruption-thrives-as-rule-of-law-and-democratic-oversight-weaken-in-poland

Do you really think that constitutes looking after their own people?

As regards my "own native country", I think there is a massive problem with the system. How can someone get 56% of the seats, with just 42% of the vote. What do you think? BTW, I was born in London. 

But if you want to talk about Ireland specifically. The three parties that currently form the coalition, got a combined 50% plus of first preference votes. And they didn't do it by censoring or shutting down unfriendly media. 

But I'll go one step further with you. Quite apart from the fact that I have demonstrated the obvious, that a gov that can get 50% + of the votes, especially when they do not indulge in rigging the judiciary and media in their favour, are by most standards undoubtedly legitimate, what you are are indulging in with your examples, is pure whataboutery. The problem with that, is that even if the Irish gov was illegitimate, that would not legitimise the Polish and Hungarian govs, for the simple reason that two wrongs do not make a right. Or did you think otherwise?

 

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Both Holland and Poland under are undergoing investigations for fraud by the ruling parties during the latest elections., they were not "free and fair elections".

Edited by Smithydog
Removed quoted post that is now deleted along with minor personal comment.
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Holland as well ? I never read that. Austrian politics seems to have taken a battering as well and of course the Italian governments are stuff of legend.

Edited by Smithydog
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2 hours ago, PBS said:

As both countries do not comply to EU agreements they should pull out of the EU, no more subsidies, preferential trade etc etc. Both government are complete hypocrites. In the case of Hungary the ruling party if massively corrupt and actively suppresses freedoms of speech etc and you support them??? Poland is suppressing freedom of speech and minority rights, yet you support them??? It's a pity EU cannot proactively remove them.

More over. As both nations (among a growing number) want their freedom to decide for themselves take note that great numbers are seeking independence. This threatening stance of we will take away your subsidies, we will take away your trade privileges, we will punish you for thinking differently is in itself totalitarian. Their local populace voted for and supported their own government. Freedom suppression is what you advocate because if another person has a different view then they are ....  xenophobic, racist blah blah blah and should be punished. 

What is keeping the EU together is the common currencies tentacles. Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty gives them an avenue on paper. Eventually a nation tied to the Euro dollar will break its shackles and become independent. This is when the flood gates to independence can open. It doesn't mean they have to be hostile to the EU. It just means that they can have a chance to make their own unbullied decisions.  

On the subject of which there is a nation that is right in the middle of the continent. It makes its own policies, has very liberal laws, low incarceration numbers, the right to bear firearms, universal health care and a strong economy. It has continuously chose to not become an EU member. It's called Switzerland. Relations with its neighbours are far from poor. Others see this and take note.

People are skeptical of the EU and it IS crumbling. Italy, France, Holland and well as Poland, Hungary and Czech have growing anti EU sentiment. For all the good that the EU did it is not full proof and can collapse.

Yesterday the Thaiger team shut us down and for good reason. A debate turns sour when fanaticism gets involved. In the end you will still see right winged or pro freedom supporters as wrong and pull up quotes from news sources favorable to your cause. But be aware that many on the far left are doing their own form of suppression.    

Nothing personal. In closing our debate got too heated. Even if we don't see eye to eye it doesn't have to end in hostility and I'm sorry about my last comment. Lets just agree to disagree. After all there is a word that describes our right to choose. It is called Democracy.

 

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