Collapse of China

[PBS]

12 hours ago, Stardust said:

There are numbers out there they not care about any ideology or even analysts, it is just about simple math. And therefore it doesn't matter what the prc government says the numbers will not change! It is just simple like that. For others who cannot read numbers abd understand them they have to rely on what the government will say and some will even believe everything. 

Sure threats are in place to PRC property market But again you have no empirical evidence on what PRC government and other PRC actors' actions will be in relation to the current property and financial market challenges. Wait and see...

 

[PBS]

2 hours ago, kellio48 said:

China could crush Australia under it's heel without even hearing the crunch and would love to do so particularly in light of Australia having opened their arms to them over the past 30 years or so anyway in letting China buy up so much of Australian farm real-estate after the Australian government made it so difficult for Australian farmers to be able to survive and were forced to walk off the land opening the doors for China to walk in and grab it.  

Off topic, but worth some clarity as of end 2020...

Chinese interests' total area of Australian agricultural land to 9,199,000 hectares or 2.4pc

https://www.farmweekly.com.au/story/7067765/how-much-aussie-farmland-is-foreign-owned/

Edited December 10, 2021 by PBS

[AussieBob]

3 hours ago, kellio48 said:

China could crush Australia under it's heel without even hearing the crunch and would love to do so particularly in light of Australia having opened their arms to them over the past 30 years or so anyway in letting China buy up so much of Australian farm real-estate after the Australian government made it so difficult for Australian farmers to be able to survive and were forced to walk off the land opening the doors for China to walk in and grab it.  

Total rubbish mate - you need to use google.  China is 9th largest investor - UK and USA are by far the biggest and have been for many decades.   I agree about the farmers though - successive left-wing Govts have made things tough and many had given up - but not a large number bought by China. Left wing Govts made things easier for China - that has been pulled back a lot in last decade - going forward they are being much more controlled. Besides they are being welcomed in Africa and other places now - including Thailand and Laos and Cambodia - Australia no longer on their target.

China has introduced strong rules to stop the wealthy investing overseas, except where the CCP supports it (Thailand, Africa, etc.).  Plus the whole China real estate problem started when CCP removed allowances and support that they provided for companies to operate - that is why the slide started.  

[AussieBob]

10 hours ago, Stardust said:

Will remind many on the soviet union business model

Roosters and Cows always eventually come home.  Like all Communist Govts China has built their economic growth on excessive publicly funded infrastructure projects - plus China added speculative real estate developments. CCP doubled their economy within a decade, but it was all based on real estate and infrastructure projects, funded through Govt debt.  That debt is now starting to come home - and they just cannot pay for it.  In the post-Covid world, interest rates are going to increase from their historically low levels since the GFC in 2008 - their massive debts are going to get humongous.    

Xi has taken on the job of bringing it all under control, and stop the country falling apart.  I hope he fails, because China deserves to fail - and also all the western companies and people who got wealthy supporting and allowing China to do what they have been doing since the 1990s.   For all you youngsters who have no idea - the reason they/we let China enter the world trade was to help them transition from a Communist to a Capitalist country. They did not - the CCP took the money to make themselves more powerful and even more entrenched - they claimed that all the benefits going to the people was because of the CCP.   Crash and burn - the sooner the better. 

[Stardust]

3 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

Roosters and Cows always eventually come home.  Like all Communist Govts China has built their economic growth on excessive publicly funded infrastructure projects - plus China added speculative real estate developments. CCP doubled their economy within a decade, but it was all based on real estate and infrastructure projects, funded through Govt debt.  That debt is now starting to come home - and they just cannot pay for it.  In the post-Covid world, interest rates are going to increase from their historically low levels since the GFC in 2008 - their massive debts are going to get humongous.    

Xi has taken on the job of bringing it all under control, and stop the country falling apart.  I hope he fails, because China deserves to fail - and also all the western companies and people who got wealthy supporting and allowing China to do what they have been doing since the 1990s.   For all you youngsters who have no idea - the reason they/we let China enter the world trade was to help them transition from a Communist to a Capitalist country. They did not - the CCP took the money to make themselves more powerful and even more entrenched - they claimed that all the benefits going to the people was because of the CCP.   Crash and burn - the sooner the better. 

Exactly and some even not realized all this ghostowns are build by debts just to make a nice gdp revenue and keep the unemployment rate lower. Towns for trillions of usd on debts and nobody will ever live there.

[Stardust]

9 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

Roosters and Cows always eventually come home.  Like all Communist Govts China has built their economic growth on excessive publicly funded infrastructure projects - plus China added speculative real estate developments. CCP doubled their economy within a decade, but it was all based on real estate and infrastructure projects, funded through Govt debt.  That debt is now starting to come home - and they just cannot pay for it.  In the post-Covid world, interest rates are going to increase from their historically low levels since the GFC in 2008 - their massive debts are going to get humongous.    

Xi has taken on the job of bringing it all under control, and stop the country falling apart.  I hope he fails, because China deserves to fail - and also all the western companies and people who got wealthy supporting and allowing China to do what they have been doing since the 1990s.   For all you youngsters who have no idea - the reason they/we let China enter the world trade was to help them transition from a Communist to a Capitalist country. They did not - the CCP took the money to make themselves more powerful and even more entrenched - they claimed that all the benefits going to the people was because of the CCP.   Crash and burn - the sooner the better. 

Some maybe not understand that debts are not for free and some doesn't know this models and their huge amounts of debts was the main reason why the soviet union collapsed. And you may remember some said we cannot compare the collapse of the soviet union with China. But in reality they have the same business models.

[AussieBob]

14 minutes ago, Stardust said:

Some maybe not understand that debts are not for free and some doesn't know this models and their huge amounts of debts was the main reason why the soviet union collapsed. And you may remember some said we cannot compare the collapse of the soviet union with China. But in reality they have the same business models.

Margaret Thatcher said it best of all:  

"The trouble with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money."

"There is no such thing as 'safe' socialism. If it’s safe, it’s not socialism. And if it's socialism, it’s not safe. The signposts of socialism point downhill to less freedom, less prosperity, downhill to more muddle, more failure. If we follow them to their destination, they will lead this nation into bankruptcy."

Bankruptcy is where China is heading. It happened to USSR and the sooner it happens to China the better.  Sure we (Democratic countries) will be there to help pick up the pieces, but until it is in pieces we should do nothing to help - other than to help make it happen quicker. 

 

 

[Stardust]

1 hour ago, AussieBob said:

Margaret Thatcher said it best of all:  

"The trouble with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money."

"There is no such thing as 'safe' socialism. If it’s safe, it’s not socialism. And if it's socialism, it’s not safe. The signposts of socialism point downhill to less freedom, less prosperity, downhill to more muddle, more failure. If we follow them to their destination, they will lead this nation into bankruptcy."

Bankruptcy is where China is heading. It happened to USSR and the sooner it happens to China the better.  Sure we (Democratic countries) will be there to help pick up the pieces, but until it is in pieces we should do nothing to help - other than to help make it happen quicker. 

I agree but in Europe they wouldn't call China or the soviet union as socialism they call it stalinist and Maoist comunist dictatorship countries. It would be not fair to compare them with democratic socialists , even when their policies are often stupid, from Europe to this brutal regimes. But sure any regimes (comunists, socialists,juntas) who are against any democratic societies and human rights etc. and for sure they always end up in bankruptcies, big troubles and collapses.

[ThailandRyan]

This had to have hurt

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3159291/evergrande-chairman-hui-ka-yan-forced-sell-pledged-shares

They are already in Default

 

Hui Ka-yan, the chairman of China Evergrande Group, has been forced to sell shares in the debt-ridden developer to fulfil an obligation.

Hui, 63, saw his stake in Evergrande drop to 59.78 per cent from 61.88 per cent following the share sales between December 6 and 9, which was undertaken to enforce a “security interest”, according to a filing to the Hong Kong stock exchange. The disclosure came a day after the developer was officially labelled a defaulter for the first time.

 

[Rookiescot]

Some of you guys need to calm down with the sabre rattling. 

First of all NATO is not what it once was regarding assets located in the EU. Countries like the UK and USA massively reduced their commitments of troops and equipment in theater.

Second the invasion of Taiwan would most likely see a land war in Korea as China would seek to divert onto something it thinks it has a better chance of winning.

Third China has the largest submarine fleet in the world. Now while their submarines are not great there is a lot of them. They can afford to basically swamp areas with these things and having no regard for casualties take out vital assets.

Now its not all one way traffic though. China relies on huge quantities of raw materials to exist. That would stop.

You better believe that Three Gorges Dam is gonna get popped.

Command and control assets will get wiped out to the point China is using two tin cans and a piece of string to try and communicate with its forces.

The air war will be a one sided affair given China is no match for western airforces. Yet.

The sea war will be a maul. Both sides taking large casualties which China will believe it can absorb.

The ground war will be a charnel house. Especially when India gets involved. Expect massive casualties on both sides but again China will believe it can absorb that.

At some point one side or the other is going to start losing. Then we will see that big red button getting pushed. First with tactical nukes but then with strategic ones.

Game ends.

[Rookiescot]

11 hours ago, AussieBob said:

Margaret Thatcher said it best of all:  

"The trouble with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money."

"There is no such thing as 'safe' socialism. If it’s safe, it’s not socialism. And if it's socialism, it’s not safe. The signposts of socialism point downhill to less freedom, less prosperity, downhill to more muddle, more failure. If we follow them to their destination, they will lead this nation into bankruptcy."

Bankruptcy is where China is heading. It happened to USSR and the sooner it happens to China the better.  Sure we (Democratic countries) will be there to help pick up the pieces, but until it is in pieces we should do nothing to help - other than to help make it happen quicker. 

LOL China is no longer a communist or even socialist country. China is a capitalists utopian dream.

 

[AussieBob]

11 hours ago, Rookiescot said:

LOL China is no longer a communist or even socialist country. China is a capitalists utopian dream.

Bad joke right?

[Rookiescot]

17 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

Bad joke right?

China has a small number of elites making vast profits while lording it over a suppressed population who work for peanuts.

Its a capitalists wet dream.

[PBS]

12 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

China has a small number of elites making vast profits while lording it over a suppressed population who work for peanuts.

Its a capitalists wet dream.

True, thoroughly corrupt, but those falling foul of the politics are executed (murdered). The ruling political ideology is based upon Leninism, but as you know has undergone various changes when leadership has changed.

[Stardust]

12 hours ago, Rookiescot said:

Some of you guys need to calm down with the sabre rattling. 

First of all NATO is not what it once was regarding assets located in the EU. Countries like the UK and USA massively reduced their commitments of troops and equipment in theater.

Second the invasion of Taiwan would most likely see a land war in Korea as China would seek to divert onto something it thinks it has a better chance of winning.

Third China has the largest submarine fleet in the world. Now while their submarines are not great there is a lot of them. They can afford to basically swamp areas with these things and having no regard for casualties take out vital assets.

Now its not all one way traffic though. China relies on huge quantities of raw materials to exist. That would stop.

You better believe that Three Gorges Dam is gonna get popped.

Command and control assets will get wiped out to the point China is using two tin cans and a piece of string to try and communicate with its forces.

The air war will be a one sided affair given China is no match for western airforces. Yet.

The sea war will be a maul. Both sides taking large casualties which China will believe it can absorb.

The ground war will be a charnel house. Especially when India gets involved. Expect massive casualties on both sides but again China will believe it can absorb that.

At some point one side or the other is going to start losing. Then we will see that big red button getting pushed. First with tactical nukes but then with strategic ones.

Game ends.

Sorry I agree but it is the opposite the eu top up the troops and the spending for the armies this was decided in th EU parliament and national. Do you know how many countries are in the EU and Nato? By the way Nato also pushed his members to 2 % more spending of the gdp and since the Ukraine trouble all the spending for the military/ Nato went up strongly. Where do you get your info because exatcly the opposite happened?! And you aware of the French Army and the Units they build up together with Germany and nuclear powers the last 20 years?

Sorry it is the opposite and had a new high record in spending for the military.

[Stardust]

12 hours ago, Rookiescot said:

Some of you guys need to calm down with the sabre rattling. 

First of all NATO is not what it once was regarding assets located in the EU. Countries like the UK and USA massively reduced their commitments of troops and equipment in theater.

Second the invasion of Taiwan would most likely see a land war in Korea as China would seek to divert onto something it thinks it has a better chance of winning.

Third China has the largest submarine fleet in the world. Now while their submarines are not great there is a lot of them. They can afford to basically swamp areas with these things and having no regard for casualties take out vital assets.

Now its not all one way traffic though. China relies on huge quantities of raw materials to exist. That would stop.

You better believe that Three Gorges Dam is gonna get popped.

Command and control assets will get wiped out to the point China is using two tin cans and a piece of string to try and communicate with its forces.

The air war will be a one sided affair given China is no match for western airforces. Yet.

The sea war will be a maul. Both sides taking large casualties which China will believe it can absorb.

The ground war will be a charnel house. Especially when India gets involved. Expect massive casualties on both sides but again China will believe it can absorb that.

At some point one side or the other is going to start losing. Then we will see that big red button getting pushed. First with tactical nukes but then with strategic ones.

Game ends.

I guess you are not from continental Europe where they were living and defending with this threats especially in Germany since 70 years. And I guess not served there or severed there in a Nato unit. I understand it is a new situation for Australia but not for Europe and many Europeans will wondering about your views on the situation and wondering that you mean in 70 years traing and have it on the radar 24 hours they not aware of anything and prepared. But for sure it is a new situation for Australia, Japan etc and they go through what they went through 70 years ago and since 70 years. For the people who grow up with that it is kind of weird your views but understandable because new for some but to think after 70 years they are not aware, trained and developed a lot in 70 years is really an absurd view. I guess you never been in Germany, France how many bases there are including US and around the world, europe, middle east, Africa, indo pacific, south America. I guess you even dont know there ate eu territorries,countries in the indo pacific, south America, Carribean etc . The eu nuclear attack subs also passing south china sea and are in this teritorries to protect the region  (French and German).

[PBS]

1 hour ago, Stardust said:

I guess you are not from continental Europe where they were living and defending with this threats especially in Germany since 70 years. And I guess not served there or severed there in a Nato unit. I understand it is a new situation for Australia but not for Europe and many Europeans will wondering about your views on the situation and wondering that you mean in 70 years traing and have it on the radar 24 hours they not aware of anything and prepared. But for sure it is a new situation for Australia, Japan etc and they go through what they went through 70 years ago and since 70 years. For the people who grow up with that it is kind of weird your views but understandable because new for some but to think after 70 years they are not aware, trained and developed a lot in 70 years is really an absurd view. I guess you never been in Germany, France how many bases there are including US and around the world, europe, middle east, Africa, indo pacific, south America. I guess you even dont know there ate eu territorries,countries in the indo pacific, south America, Carribean etc . The eu nuclear attack subs also passing south china sea and are in this teritorries to protect the region  (French and German).

You keep making ignorant assumptions concerning members knowledge.. Both the member you are addressing and I are nationals from NATO member countries (I was born and raised in London). If memory serves correctly @Rookiescot is an ex serving member of HMG forces. We are well aware of our countries contributions to NATO, history of French 'force de frape' and so on. Your arrogance is extraordinary. it would serve you well to contain your ego and stop talking down to people.

 

 

 

[Poolie]

44 minutes ago, PBS said:

You keep making ignorant assumptions concerning members knowledge.. Both the member you are addressing and I are nationals from NATO member countries (I was born and raised in London). If memory serves correctly @Rookiescot is an ex serving member of HMG forces. We are well aware of our countries contributions to NATO, history of French 'force de frape' and so on. Your arrogance is extraordinary. it would serve you well to contain your ego and stop talking down to people.

232 posts and hasn't said anything meaningful yet.

[Stardust]

2 hours ago, PBS said:

You keep making ignorant assumptions concerning members knowledge.. Both the member you are addressing and I are nationals from NATO member countries (I was born and raised in London). If memory serves correctly @Rookiescot is an ex serving member of HMG forces. We are well aware of our countries contributions to NATO, history of French 'force de frape' and so on. Your arrogance is extraordinary. it would serve you well to contain your ego and stop talking down to people.

I find a bit strange to write and think the Nato is just the USA and the uk and your arrogance is famous here and to claim after the eu nato members have to up their expenses and troops is shown of not informed or a kind of arrogance and to claim it after the nato members also top up over 2 % of the gdp is quite the opposite! And it shows very good your arrogance and like your false fact claims here in the forum. And I could experienced your arrogance in your fact resistance and I already told you not to quote me because it make no sense to discuss with fact resistant people and it is a waste of time!

[Stardust]

2 hours ago, Poolie said:

232 posts and hasn't said anything meaningful yet.

Oh yes evergrande defaulted and everything of your brainwashed ccp propaganda was a lie and not true. Exactly the opposite happened!

[Stardust]

3 hours ago, PBS said:

You keep making ignorant assumptions concerning members knowledge.. Both the member you are addressing and I are nationals from NATO member countries (I was born and raised in London). If memory serves correctly @Rookiescot is an ex serving member of HMG forces. We are well aware of our countries contributions to NATO, history of French 'force de frape' and so on. Your arrogance is extraordinary. it would serve you well to contain your ego and stop talking down to people.

By the way do you understand when I said continental europe?! It means not the uk! And to claim the Nato is mainly the uk and usa is shows arrogance on a high level! Maybe you should learn first how many partners the Nato has and many countries in the eu, scandinavia and the baltic has. With people not know some facts or realities of the world makes really no sense and is a waste of time!

[Fester]

5 hours ago, Stardust said:

Sorry I agree but it is the opposite the eu top up the troops and the spending for the armies this was decided in th EU parliament and national. Do you know how many countries are in the EU and Nato? By the way Nato also pushed his members to 2 % more spending of the gdp and since the Ukraine trouble all the spending for the military/ Nato went up strongly. Where do you get your info because exatcly the opposite happened?! And you aware of the French Army and the Units they build up together with Germany and nuclear powers the last 20 years?

Sorry it is the opposite and had a new high record in spending for the military.

NATO didn't push anything - Trump did - several NATO members have yet to allocate >2% of their GDP to defence spending (NATO agreement), which they signed up to long before Trump.  Germany still does not match the 2% and France only just made it there.  

[Stardust]

On 12/11/2021 at 7:33 AM, AussieBob said:

Roosters and Cows always eventually come home.  Like all Communist Govts China has built their economic growth on excessive publicly funded infrastructure projects - plus China added speculative real estate developments. CCP doubled their economy within a decade, but it was all based on real estate and infrastructure projects, funded through Govt debt.  That debt is now starting to come home - and they just cannot pay for it.  In the post-Covid world, interest rates are going to increase from their historically low levels since the GFC in 2008 - their massive debts are going to get humongous.    

Xi has taken on the job of bringing it all under control, and stop the country falling apart.  I hope he fails, because China deserves to fail - and also all the western companies and people who got wealthy supporting and allowing China to do what they have been doing since the 1990s.   For all you youngsters who have no idea - the reason they/we let China enter the world trade was to help them transition from a Communist to a Capitalist country. They did not - the CCP took the money to make themselves more powerful and even more entrenched - they claimed that all the benefits going to the people was because of the CCP.   Crash and burn - the sooner the better. 

I don't know a lot about Australias politics because I am not from Australia but when I read the comments from the left wings of Australians they are really absurd and away from realities. Also their knowledge about Europe/ eastearn Europe and Russia is zero or coming up with inormation what has nothing to do with the reality or history. There is also a big differences in the left orientadet in Europe and in Australia, because I never heard from lefties in Europe such absurd wierd statements so I guess they have also quite another ideology and info source. As often continental Europe often recordnice the UK is an small Island and some still thinks it is an empire and not realized the outside world and the realities of 2021. Many in Europe were happy not to hear any more the me me me and only take but not want do anything for the comunity and only want the cherries. Also a surprise for me is when I read the comments of the left wings from Australia it is the mostly the same from the ccp mouthpiece so I guess it is their source for information.

[Stardust]

10 minutes ago, Fester said:

NATO didn't push anything - Trump did - several NATO members have yet to allocate >2% of their GDP to defence spending (NATO agreement), which they signed up to long before Trump.  Germany still does not match the 2% and France only just made it there.  

Better you read first the german news before making any false statements. They had record expenses for their army and over the 2 % they were 3,2 % in february and now the double of what the Nato demand

 

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/ruestungsausgaben-deutschland-nato-101.html

I really wondering where your source of informatiin is from because alle claimes from you I read are wrong and not facts or on the ground of the reality! Is your source the politburo Peking?!

[Stardust]

Just now, Stardust said:

Better you read first the german news before making any false statements. They had record expenses for their army and over the 2 % they were 3,2 % in february and now the double of what the Nato demand

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/ruestungsausgaben-deutschland-nato-101.html

I really wondering where your source of informatiin is from because alle claimes from you I read are wrong and not facts or on the ground of the reality! Is your source the politburo Peking?!

Exactly the opposite again and not under 2% it is the double 4% of the gdp more!