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Collapse of China


Stardust
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2 hours ago, AussieBob said:

Same mentality exists right across Asia - but you are right it is worse in China.  For the first time in a long long time the average Chinese could make some money - so they all jumped on board.  Remember that recent scam in Thailand where that online 'deal' offered so much profit - millions of baht was stolen from people who believe that they could 'get rich quick'.  The thing in China is that they were getting rich quickly - and the Dictatorship supported them doing it - but things are slowing down now as reality finally comes home. Will China collapse - I think they will certainly come down slowly a long way - but if they are unable to manage things post-covid, then yes they will collapse like USSR - slowly but surely.  

This planning economies never worked well and are not innovative. And to keep the people living like in a prison brings zero develooment and no inovative economies this is only possible in open socities. Thats why their economies and societies always collaps. China has no inovative high tech development only copies and for production need suppliers for the tech components. Any conflict China will shoot in their own food and their productions are down as we see it at the moment happened because of conflicts they have no coal and other supplies. It is all build on Sand.

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2 hours ago, AussieBob said:

Before the next POTUS election in 2024 there will be enacted in many States much stricter laws about voter ID and that is what this is all about. 

Yes - both sides in the media are biased - they both pander to their base.  CNN et al to the left, and Fox et al to the right.  They both sometimes are impartial - but there is no media outlet that is always impartial.

Whatever happens in 2024, the USA is no longer going to 'facilitate' China staying as an economic powerhouse - they are moving to reduce their power and influence. Biden has recently made it clear that Taiwan will be supported by USA - and there are more less pro-China noises emanating out of the White House (not Congress) - trade arrangements are changing and this will continue.

All of that is not good for China's economy, and hopefully the western world will not fall for any of their lies and seek appeasement. Nth Korea has lied and made bulldust concessions for decades - but they still continue to be as bad as they ever were. Hopefully the decline of China will result in their Dictatorship's destruction - and all other military dictatorships right across SEAsia that China currently supports.   

Biden seems to be incapable of being clear about much of anything and, after the recent debacle in Afghanistan, I doubt that the Taiwanese will put too much trust in what he says.  

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21 hours ago, Stardust said:

You have really no knowledge about tech and engineering or Europe. There is no Chinese tech all tech components are from suppliers mostly from europe and western countries. If you ever worked for a german engeineering or tech company or of their multynational companies who have their branches also in China you would. Any german engineer is loughing about such statements without any backround knowledge. There is no train, aircraft, car or anything without european companies or any smart phone, notebook or pc in China with tech components supply to China. They not even have the chipstech for it. Where do you think they get that one? I guess this you don't know, too.

You should read my post carefully. I said "China is not behind in Technology and infrastructure" I did not say China is at the forefront of cutting edge Technology. Many countries has set up manufacturing sites in China for decades and the Chinese have learnt and copied these technology and intelligence. The speed of their increase in technological advancement is enormous. 

I quote you said: " There is no Chinese tech". Then you do not have knowledge of China really. Belittling the Chinese is how the west has lost its edge. Who are the main players of fast speed trains? Germans, Japanese and Chinese. What about 5G Telco technology? why is US so wary of Huawei? Mind you China also has their own semi-conductor and chip company. China has developed its own COVID Vaccines (aka Sinopharm, SInovac, etc - efficacy is another issue), where are the Germans in vaccine technology?

I maybe ignorant but I am not blind to see and recognise the rise of another economic superpower which has risen and has a double digit average growth Y-O-Y over the past 3 decades. It is a sinister force and needs to be managed to the benefit of the world, not discredited and ignored.

 

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1 hour ago, HiuMak said:

You should read my post carefully. I said "China is not behind in Technology and infrastructure" I did not say China is at the forefront of cutting edge Technology. Many countries has set up manufacturing sites in China for decades and the Chinese have learnt and copied these technology and intelligence. The speed of their increase in technological advancement is enormous. 

I quote you said: " There is no Chinese tech". Then you do not have knowledge of China really. Belittling the Chinese is how the west has lost its edge. Who are the main players of fast speed trains? Germans, Japanese and Chinese. What about 5G Telco technology? why is US so wary of Huawei? Mind you China also has their own semi-conductor and chip company. China has developed its own COVID Vaccines (aka Sinopharm, SInovac, etc - efficacy is another issue), where are the Germans in vaccine technology?

I maybe ignorant but I am not blind to see and recognise the rise of another economic superpower which has risen and has a double digit average growth Y-O-Y over the past 3 decades. It is a sinister force and needs to be managed to the benefit of the world, not discredited and ignored.

Inside tech from high speed trains is not chinese! Trans rapid everything is 100% developed in Germany including all components. There is no car, train (Siemens) or any aircraft with any chinese tech inside! Yes you have knowledge about tech and productions in China! By the way I worked for a Germany company and with branches in China and all around Asia. And guess of all thos big german companies who is their biggest customer? Yes China and the USA. You never been in any big production in China or for example automotive industry in China. Machines for the production all technologies from abroad and mostly all from Germany. Automotive supplier inside China is build up from techtransfer and european companies. So so sorry to tell you that but believing is not knowing and maybe you talk with sombody who work in a multinational company in China who is the supplier or is the reality of any production. Who developed their machines, robots and automatitation for their production. I guess you think in a huwai smart phone is all chinese tech or I phone. Tech Compenents are from suppliers abroad and put together in China thats the reality.

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39 minutes ago, Stardust said:

Inside tech from high speed trains is not chinese! Trans rapid everything is 100% developed in Germany including all components. There is no car, train (Siemens) or any aircraft with any chinese tech inside! Yes you have knowledge about tech and productions in China! By the way I worked for a Germany company and with branches in China and all around Asia. And guess of all thos big german companies who is their biggest customer? Yes China and the USA. You never been in any big production in China or for example automotive industry in China. Machines for the production all technologies from abroad and mostly all from Germany. Automotive supplier inside China is build up from techtransfer and european companies. So so sorry to tell you that but believing is not knowing and maybe you talk with sombody who work in a multinational company in China who is the supplier or is the reality of any production. Who developed their machines, robots and automatitation for their production. I guess you think in a huwai smart phone is all chinese tech or I phone. Tech Compenents are from suppliers abroad and put together in China thats the reality.

I am trying to understand what I see as your petulant fixation in claiming China has no innovative technology. In the process of being enabled as a mass producer of consumer products a natural part of that process has been a combination of utilization of imported technology and increasing development of it's own. There is no exclusivity to possession of technology purchased from a market that makes it available for sale or to be supplied it at the convenience of  foreign companies operating for commercial advantage  inside China. That some of it has been allegedly  "stolen" again is hardly exclusive to China when industrial espionage is an international fact. That many foreign enterprises conceded to conditions of operating in China is an issue that is unrealistic in retrospective complaint that it involved technology transfer.

China is currently the global leader in AI development . That the application of has some dubious applications does not retract from the fact.

US sanctions applied to inhibit China have had an effect but the misguided "Easy to win" trade war hurt the US more than China overall. The current attempts of intimidation of China over Taiwan I see simply as yet another tactic with potential to end negatively for all involved.

 

 

 

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@StardustI was curious about your claims PRC has not developed any of it's own high tech IP, especially considering PRC would have leveraged off IP transfer contracts. SO...just on my first search, for sure many others in defence, computing and so on.

China's early high-speed trains were imported or built under technology transfer agreements with foreign train-makers including Alstom, Siemens, Bombardier and Kawasaki Heavy Industries. Since the initial technological support, Chinese engineers have re-designed internal train components and built indigenous trains manufactured by the state-owned CRRC Corporation.

PRC is now the global leader for patents...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-patents-idUSKBN21P1P9

Development of chip technology

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210903005080/en/Developing-Telecoms-Chinese-14nm-Chips-to-Enter-Full-scale-Mass-Production-In-2022

 

Automotive example

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-automotive-industry-intensifies-electrification-082200758.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAACcuP53PpfaYXpgnqlb__eWPuXajiYRFxC9dWao9_4ozocPYJ5tg8h97aiGDtZ1krIf1iJulnlkzlib_hn01weOIxkShBGVwgiWGd7C7xK0s_w-qxiVx-SkVWxv9yyRHj1QjHfvWEnjYDOscaKYKYvJih28QCClDa73CGT5dmQZS

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2 hours ago, Stardust said:

Inside tech from high speed trains is not chinese! Trans rapid everything is 100% developed in Germany including all components. There is no car, train (Siemens) or any aircraft with any chinese tech inside! Yes you have knowledge about tech and productions in China! By the way I worked for a Germany company and with branches in China and all around Asia. And guess of all thos big german companies who is their biggest customer? Yes China and the USA. You never been in any big production in China or for example automotive industry in China. Machines for the production all technologies from abroad and mostly all from Germany. Automotive supplier inside China is build up from techtransfer and european companies. So so sorry to tell you that but believing is not knowing and maybe you talk with sombody who work in a multinational company in China who is the supplier or is the reality of any production. Who developed their machines, robots and automatitation for their production. I guess you think in a huwai smart phone is all chinese tech or I phone. Tech Compenents are from suppliers abroad and put together in China thats the reality.

Sticks and Stones may break my bones, there is always someone in a forum looking for a personal engagement, which makes them happy. You do not know me and how do you know I have not worked in a MNC and for the better German MNC? Yes Germans are the best in everything including German measles. 

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4 hours ago, HiuMak said:

You should read my post carefully. I said "China is not behind in Technology and infrastructure" I did not say China is at the forefront of cutting edge Technology. Many countries has set up manufacturing sites in China for decades and the Chinese have learnt and copied these technology and intelligence. The speed of their increase in technological advancement is enormous. 

I quote you said: " There is no Chinese tech". Then you do not have knowledge of China really. Belittling the Chinese is how the west has lost its edge. Who are the main players of fast speed trains? Germans, Japanese and Chinese. What about 5G Telco technology? why is US so wary of Huawei? Mind you China also has their own semi-conductor and chip company. China has developed its own COVID Vaccines (aka Sinopharm, SInovac, etc - efficacy is another issue), where are the Germans in vaccine technology?

I maybe ignorant but I am not blind to see and recognise the rise of another economic superpower which has risen and has a double digit average growth Y-O-Y over the past 3 decades. It is a sinister force and needs to be managed to the benefit of the world, not discredited and ignored.

Where are the Germans in vaccine technology?

They developed the Pfizer vaccine!

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18 minutes ago, Changnam43 said:

Where are the Germans in vaccine technology?

They developed the Pfizer vaccine!

I thought that the Turkish couple developed it.

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10 minutes ago, Chaimai said:

I thought that the Turkish couple developed it.

BioNtech are a German company.  One of the three founders was born in Turkey and later became a German citizen. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Changnam43 said:

BioNtech are a German company.  One of the three founders was born in Turkey and later became a German citizen. 

 

Scientists Ugur Sahin and Ozlem Tureci have dedicated their lives to the field of oncology and infectious diseases, and spent years pioneering personalized immunotherapy treatments for cancer.

But amid the coronavirus pandemic, the couple's groundbreaking research in the field of modified genetic code has catapulted them into the public eye, as the brains behind the world's first effective coronavirus vaccine.
Sahin, 55, and Tureci, 53, set up BioNTech in the central German city of Mainz in 2008. On Monday the company's partner, US pharmaceutical giant Pfizer, said their candidate vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing infection in volunteers.

 

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13 minutes ago, Chaimai said:

Scientists Ugur Sahin and Ozlem Tureci have dedicated their lives to the field of oncology and infectious diseases, and spent years pioneering personalized immunotherapy treatments for cancer.

But amid the coronavirus pandemic, the couple's groundbreaking research in the field of modified genetic code has catapulted them into the public eye, as the brains behind the world's first effective coronavirus vaccine.
Sahin, 55, and Tureci, 53, set up BioNTech in the central German city of Mainz in 2008. On Monday the company's partner, US pharmaceutical giant Pfizer, said their candidate vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing infection in volunteers.

Yes.  I know all that.  None of which invalidates anything I said.  Its a German company.  Its a German developed vaccine.

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8 hours ago, AussieBob said:

Before the next POTUS election in 2024 there will be enacted in many States much stricter laws about voter ID and that is what this is all about. 

Just to take issue with that part of your post, what has banning (black) Georgians from voting on a Sunday, or making it a crime to give someone water who might have been standing in a line for five hours,  got to do with voter identification? With regard to the latter in particular, there is a well established pattern in some states, that poll stations in poorer areas are less well resourced than those in richer areas leading to longer queues and waiting times in the poorer areas. Yet those states don't seem to be making any efforts to address that issue.

Incidentally, I dug down into the most recent cases shown on the Heritage link I posted, looking at 2021 reports of which there are 13 reported cases. I limited myself to this sector because I thought it would be cases reported in the 2020 Election. I found that where you could identify the party loyalty of the offender, it was fairly evenly spread among Dems and Reps. I also found that not all the cases were about double-voting, but included CANDIDATES from both party's falsifying their place of residence in order to stand for election in local elections where a residential qualification was necessary. I'd say this further undermines the alleged scale of the problem that those seeking further restrictions are purportedly trying to fix. 

I also note that the site has a "searchable" facility, but what you can't search for is "duplicate voting" which would be the main problem that they claim they want to fix. Of the 13 cases so far adjudicated in 2021, only four of these were for people voting twice.  I am sure that number will rise as time goes on. But when you consider that there were over 150 mill votes cast for POTUS alone in 2020 before you consider the votes cast for Congressional seats, it doesn't seem to me, to merit various states writing over 300 pieces of new legislation to deal with an almost non-existent problem.

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19 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

Just to take issue with that part of your post, what has banning (black) Georgians from voting on a Sunday, or making it a crime to give someone water who might have been standing in a line for five hours,  got to do with voter identification? With regard to the latter in particular, there is a well established pattern in some states, that poll stations in poorer areas are less well resourced than those in richer areas leading to longer queues and waiting times in the poorer areas. Yet those states don't seem to be making any efforts to address that issue.

Incidentally, I dug down into the most recent cases shown on the Heritage link I posted, looking at 2021 reports of which there are 13 reported cases. I limited myself to this sector because I thought it would be cases reported in the 2020 Election. I found that where you could identify the party loyalty of the offender, it was fairly evenly spread among Dems and Reps. I also found that not all the cases were about double-voting, but included CANDIDATES from both party's falsifying their place of residence in order to stand for election in local elections where a residential qualification was necessary. I'd say this further undermines the alleged scale of the problem that those seeking further restrictions are purportedly trying to fix. 

I also note that the site has a "searchable" facility, but what you can't search for is "duplicate voting" which would be the main problem that they claim they want to fix. Of the 13 cases so far adjudicated in 2021, only four of these were for people voting twice.  I am sure that number will rise as time goes on. But when you consider that there were over 150 mill votes cast for POTUS alone in 2020 before you consider the votes cast for Congressional seats, it doesn't seem to me, to merit various states writing over 300 pieces of new legislation to deal with an almost non-existent problem.

Well there's 50 states, so that's only 6 each. Even if the audit report from Arizona is only "almost" correct, multiple problems exist which need remedies.

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6 hours ago, Stardust said:

Inside tech from high speed trains is not chinese! Trans rapid everything is 100% developed in Germany including all components. There is no car, train (Siemens) or any aircraft with any chinese tech inside! Yes you have knowledge about tech and productions in China! By the way I worked for a Germany company and with branches in China and all around Asia. And guess of all thos big german companies who is their biggest customer? Yes China and the USA. You never been in any big production in China or for example automotive industry in China. Machines for the production all technologies from abroad and mostly all from Germany. Automotive supplier inside China is build up from techtransfer and european companies. So so sorry to tell you that but believing is not knowing and maybe you talk with sombody who work in a multinational company in China who is the supplier or is the reality of any production. Who developed their machines, robots and automatitation for their production. I guess you think in a huwai smart phone is all chinese tech or I phone. Tech Compenents are from suppliers abroad and put together in China thats the reality.

As someone that worked in IT&T for over 30 years, I agree with that statememt. There has been very little actual technological development coming out of China. They have taken others technologies and even  improved some, but the amount of Chinese innovation and development is very low.  What the Chinese do very very well is manufacture very quickly and efficiently and cheaply - they are not the quality of Germany - but they have improved significantly this century.  China started doing the same thing that Japan previously did - manufacture cheaper - but it is their lack of development and innovation that is now holding them back.  As the Chinese worker continues to earn more money, and gains more working rights, their manufacturing advantage will diminish - just like it did in Japan. 

If you want to understand about the lack of innovation in China just think gunpowder and glass. China had gunpowder a long long time before the west and they did not do anything with it, and China could not figure out how to manufacture glass for a long long time.  

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3 hours ago, AussieBob said:

As someone that worked in IT&T for over 30 years, I agree with that statememt. There has been very little actual technological development coming out of China. They have taken others technologies and even  improved some, but the amount of Chinese innovation and development is very low.  What the Chinese do very very well is manufacture very quickly and efficiently and cheaply - they are not the quality of Germany - but they have improved significantly this century.  China started doing the same thing that Japan previously did - manufacture cheaper - but it is their lack of development and innovation that is now holding them back.  As the Chinese worker continues to earn more money, and gains more working rights, their manufacturing advantage will diminish - just like it did in Japan. 

If you want to understand about the lack of innovation in China just think gunpowder and glass. China had gunpowder a long long time before the west and they did not do anything with it, and China could not figure out how to manufacture glass for a long long time.  

Valid points. With the hostilities aimed at Taiwan and many nations cutting their support China may or may not collapse but if there's a stopper placed on swiping the innovations of others and loss of incentive with the cheap labour force becoming not so cheap, the nation will not be as prosperous as it wishes.

Edited by mickkotlarski
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4 hours ago, AussieBob said:

As someone that worked in IT&T for over 30 years, I agree with that statememt. There has been very little actual technological development coming out of China. They have taken others technologies and even  improved some, but the amount of Chinese innovation and development is very low.  What the Chinese do very very well is manufacture very quickly and efficiently and cheaply - they are not the quality of Germany - but they have improved significantly this century.  China started doing the same thing that Japan previously did - manufacture cheaper - but it is their lack of development and innovation that is now holding them back.  As the Chinese worker continues to earn more money, and gains more working rights, their manufacturing advantage will diminish - just like it did in Japan. 

If you want to understand about the lack of innovation in China just think gunpowder and glass. China had gunpowder a long long time before the west and they did not do anything with it, and China could not figure out how to manufacture glass for a long long time.  

I fully agree 

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8 hours ago, Changnam43 said:

BioNtech are a German company.  One of the three founders was born in Turkey and later became a German citizen. 

Exactly the parents are from Turkey but the founder are raised and educated and university in Germany.

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Comparing China to Germany is like comparing Mercedes to any of the Chinese brand made cars - FAW, Dongfeng, SAIC and Dongfeng.  One invents and designs and manufactures - and the other one makes cheap copies.

 

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1 hour ago, AussieBob said:

Comparing China to Germany is like comparing Mercedes to any of the Chinese brand made cars - FAW, Dongfeng, SAIC and Dongfeng.  One invents and designs and manufactures - and the other one makes cheap copies.

I think one of the problems the German car companies face, and indeed other companies such as Honda face, is that to a significant extent their reputations are built on the performance of their internal combustion engines.

Going into the future the ability to make a great ICE is going to be irrelevant.  For passenger cars at least it is going to be all about EV.

I think that there is a significant difference in the Chinese approach to EVs.  EVs are essentially much simpler than ICE or hybrid powered vehicles yet all western manufacturers start from the supposition that an EV must come with complex layers of tech on top.  The big touch screens, lane assist, brake assist, rear view cameras as opposed to mirrors etc etc.  All that add on tech adds to the cost of the vehicle, increases complexity and makes the vehicles harder to maintain.  It also tends to fall over if there are supply chain issues as there are right now.

By contrast while the Chinese make EVs with layers of tech on top they also make much simpler and cheaper EVs with a go pedal, a stop pedal and a steering wheel.  Such simpler cars are running around in Shenzen as taxis right now.

Where are the simple western manufactured EVs?  If the western companies do not make such vehicles they will miss out on a large part part of the market and you can be sure that someone else will fill that gap.

I would quite happily buy an EV but I don't want or need all the toys you get on a Tesla and those toys have pushed the cost beyond what I can comfortably afford. 

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China is not going to collapse IMO. Ok, they are having a few economic issues with Evergrande and the wider fall-out from too much borrowing. But China has one incredible asset, which is they run the country without reliance and guidance on religion. This might not have mattered a few decades ago, western nations were guided by Christian ideals and principles which was not a big problem. But nowadays with western nations all falling under the spell of "wokism" which is attacking the foundations from which nations were built and the people that built and made them successful is a huge threat. China will be laughing their socks off, not collapsing.

 It should be different. The Covid leak was all the excuse nations needed to punish and financially demand reparations. Tamp down the Chinese power and influence worldwide. It would have been too easy. Yet we have a US potus with deep and irregular business interests in China (https://news.yahoo.com/hunter-biden-still-holds-10-184000359.html), and who knows what leverage the Chinese have over him. The price to pay for refusing to hold a president accountable and censoring of critics for political reasons. A huge wasted opportunity.

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3 hours ago, AussieBob said:

Comparing China to Germany is like comparing Mercedes to any of the Chinese brand made cars - FAW, Dongfeng, SAIC and Dongfeng.  One invents and designs and manufactures - and the other one makes cheap copies.

 Not to mention the electric car market Bob. Elon Musk is finding out the hard way.

Bedsides getting access to the software technology 200k+ vehicles have been deemed defective. Sure Volkswagen among others is involved in the emissions scandal but would China not be worse as I nation that has consistently swept its dirt under the mat?  

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On 10/24/2021 at 9:46 AM, HiuMak said:

You should read my post carefully. I said "China is not behind in Technology and infrastructure" I did not say China is at the forefront of cutting edge Technology. Many countries has set up manufacturing sites in China for decades and the Chinese have learnt and copied these technology and intelligence. The speed of their increase in technological advancement is enormous. 

I quote you said: " There is no Chinese tech". Then you do not have knowledge of China really. Belittling the Chinese is how the west has lost its edge. Who are the main players of fast speed trains? Germans, Japanese and Chinese. What about 5G Telco technology? why is US so wary of Huawei? Mind you China also has their own semi-conductor and chip company. China has developed its own COVID Vaccines (aka Sinopharm, SInovac, etc - efficacy is another issue), where are the Germans in vaccine technology?

I maybe ignorant but I am not blind to see and recognise the rise of another economic superpower which has risen and has a double digit average growth Y-O-Y over the past 3 decades. It is a sinister force and needs to be managed to the benefit of the world, not discredited and ignored.

Pfizer is developed by Biontec and is a Germany Company from Mainz. OMG

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