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Collapse of China


Stardust
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12 hours ago, JohninDubin said:

I am sceptical about the capability of the military in China. Though it is by far the largest standing army on the planet, we have seen how future major wars are going to be fought, which is mainly by remote control 1000's of miles away. I think the real purpose of having such a huge military is not defence against foreigners, but the possibility that their own people might revolt. 

If the US and China which I don't expect to happen, it is the the side with the better technology that will win.

I agree in a general sense. An interesting fact is it was the imposition of regulatory changes back in 2020 that started to damage the financial viability of not only Evergrande. I cannot discount my personal speculation that the CCP has engineered a situation that in the end result will curtail the Chinese version of"Perestroika" and re-establish full State control over many sectors. Something that matches a lot of commentary about Xi's authoritarian influence.

As for the military capacity I would consider it speculative in that there is so much propaganda touted on all sides in the renewed "arms race" if all of were to be put fully to the test the only decisive outcome could be horrific destruction not confined . In quite recent times China  has successfully tested a ICBM which in a final showdown puts stain on the picture of security in remoteness. Brinkmanship is again the tactic and I too hope technology is not tested against resolve. 

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1 hour ago, Stardust said:

By the way this slogan tear down the wall was when west germany invited Reagan to Berlin. But this doesn't mean he did, with claiming that would like a rewrite the history of Europe and rewrite the history of east germany and eastern european countries. Rewrite the revolution in Romenia against Chowchesco. Your claim is absurd and I agree on almost other of your comments regarding political or economic situations in the world.

3 times reply? I was going to let it go and move on, but 23 times??  OK - try this:

https://www.heritage.org/conservatism/commentary/how-ronald-reagan-won-the-cold-war

https://thejewishvoice.com/2018/05/without-firing-shot-ronald-reagan-fall-soviet-empire/

If you only read the left wing media stories, you will see very little if any credit given to Reagan. If it was Clinton though he would have been over-credited, and probably nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize 😁 I assume that is why you dont know the details -  if it is otherwise, then lets both move on. 

 

 

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8 hours ago, AussieBob said:

False:  "Gorbachov - tear down this wall"   Reagan's administration's successes forced Gorbachov to make the changes within USSR that directly led to that exact same wall coming down in 1989, and all the subsequent changes over the years, including USSR no longer existing.  Empires are not built nor do they fall apart in one day. 

And the Wall was torn down after Reagan left office. Before Reagan, there were 5 other US POTUS who all made their contribution, much of which was to outspend Russian to the edge of financial oblivion. Reagan played a significant part, but I think if you believe that Reagan's speech won it, then I think you, like others since, are rewriting history. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tear_down_this_wall!

Extract: 

"The speech received "relatively little coverage from the media", Time magazine wrote 20 years later.[15] John Kornblum, senior US diplomat in Berlin at the time of Reagan's speech, and US Ambassador to Germany from 1997 to 2001, said "[The speech] wasn't really elevated to its current status until 1989, after the wall came down."

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3 hours ago, Stardust said:

And there are few factors more like the east german revolution who brought the wall down.

Throw into that mix, the Hungarian decision to open the border with Austria to all Warsaw Pact citizens. Not a lot of point in having a secure wall on one side of your home when you leave a back door open.

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On 10/15/2021 at 12:39 PM, gummy said:

 Possibly collapse and go into administration, I suspect not but as I am not privy to the workings of the Chinese governments financial mechanism's or their parties business processes then the truthful answer is I am unclear what will happen.

I am not sure the Chinese have such sophisticated systems such as Administration, unless it involves the failed  boss repaying the debt from a labour camp (hahaha)

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On 10/15/2021 at 3:20 PM, gummy said:

 Now of course that China is on the brink of becoming the worlds preeminent economy...

You keep saying that but to come to that conclusion, I suspect you are factoring in variables that most of us would find unacceptable. If you base that statement on PPP GDP per capita, China is the 79th largest economy in the world. To add further perspective to that, TH is ranked 74th. 

We all know that TH is not a rich country, and yet it has a higher standard of living that China. 

China is still several years off overtaking the US for total GDP, and based on current figures, when they do so, their PPP will put them somewhere 60th, a spot currently occupied by Equatorial Guinea. I don't think there would by many takers on here if you said to them, "You can be a citizen of the largest economy in the world, but you have to live like a citizen of Equatorial Guinea".

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37 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

You keep saying that but to come to that conclusion, I suspect you are factoring in variables that most of us would find unacceptable. If you base that statement on PPP GDP per capita, China is the 79th largest economy in the world. To add further perspective to that, TH is ranked 74th. 

We all know that TH is not a rich country, and yet it has a higher standard of living that China. 

China is still several years off overtaking the US for total GDP, and based on current figures, when they do so, their PPP will put them somewhere 60th, a spot currently occupied by Equatorial Guinea. I don't think there would by many takers on here if you said to them, "You can be a citizen of the largest economy in the world, but you have to live like a citizen of Equatorial Guinea".

Carry on kidding yourself then.

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On 10/15/2021 at 3:54 PM, Poolie said:

Even in parts no too far from here we get the zero sum Chinese  tourists. Well guess what? The Thai government certainly want them.

Your post reminds me so much of Gummy telling us that China will soon be the largest economy in the world. That will probably become true, but should we worry when all that economy can produce is the 79th highest living standard. 

It got that big because of it's huge population and not much else. So if you have a country that is relatively poorer than TH, but it has a population of 1.4 BN, it makes sense that if you can attract enough of them, you will make money off them. TH has applied that logic to both China, and the even more impoverished India. 

But I am pretty sure that 99.9% of Thais working in Tourism, would rather have Western Tourists, and the real attitude to Chinese and Indian tourists is, "Well they are better than nothing",

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14 minutes ago, gummy said:

Carry on kidding yourself then.

Of course I am kidding myself. If China was in the EU, based on PPP GDP per capita, it would rank 28th of 28.

Total national GDP, which is what you are relying on, is irrelevant, unless of course you are willing to trade your living standards for the status of being part of the second largest economy in the world. The true measure of Chinese GDP/PPP can be seen when you see that there are countries like Gabon, Equatorial Guinea and Botswana with higher standards of living.

If you combine the economies of the EU (440 Mill pop), its GDP exceeds that of China which has a 2.75X larger population.

All your claims do, is substitute quantity for quality.

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On 10/18/2021 at 6:53 AM, Stardust said:

Thats why blackrock tried to convience investors to invest more in the chinese markets because their ass is burning and their invests lost. They realised this bubble is huge and will need trillions to handle it. 

To me, the real question is how long China will be prepared to warehouse the debts incurred by builders on the reportedly 50 mill unsold homes in the "ghost cities"? As investors, I don't have a high opinion of the Chinese. If any country can be attributed with the "Herd mentality investor" label, it is the Chinese. They see people making fortunes from the initial building boom, so it becomes "I'll have some of that". They build and they build and they build, and nobody seems to be noticing that nobody is buying their wares. It's as if Henry Ford never stopped producing the Model T, because it was such a great seller to begin with.

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On 10/18/2021 at 7:10 AM, palooka said:

Found over the years that when these guys (BLackrock etc) say buy, run like hell because they are selling out and need idiots to buy the stock they are dumping.

A favourite tactic among those in financial services.

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On 10/18/2021 at 1:47 PM, ThailandRyan said:

 But do not worry China will be just fine as the few forum members believe it to be true, even Xi the President for Life believes it is all under control and that is why the new stories are of Reunification with Taiwan.

Classic deflection tactics.

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On 10/22/2021 at 5:29 AM, gummy said:

Oh dear, looks like all the China haters had a full breakfast today . Remember all the Experts on here spouting their anti China rhetoric about Evergrade going bust soon ? Well looks like having a full  American breakfast have left some of you with egg on your face.

Evergrande shares rise on report of bond interest payment - BBC News

Why do you assume that because people are critical of China, they hate China. That really is a lazy comment from someone with so many posts to their credit.

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5 hours ago, Convert54 said:

I agree in a general sense. An interesting fact is it was the imposition of regulatory changes back in 2020 that started to damage the financial viability of not only Evergrande. I cannot discount my personal speculation that the CCP has engineered a situation that in the end result will curtail the Chinese version of"Perestroika" and re-establish full State control over many sectors. Something that matches a lot of commentary about Xi's authoritarian influence.

As for the military capacity I would consider it speculative in that there is so much propaganda touted on all sides in the renewed "arms race" if all of were to be put fully to the test the only decisive outcome could be horrific destruction not confined . In quite recent times China  has successfully tested a ICBM which in a final showdown puts stain on the picture of security in remoteness. Brinkmanship is again the tactic and I too hope technology is not tested against resolve. 

I strongly suspect the CCP were losing their grip on the country with so many billionaires having control of industry and influence.

Hence the crack down on credit. Cripple the oligarchs and bring down their empires. The problems started when the private companies started to well outperform the state owned industries. 

Xi cannot stand any competition. His power must be absolute.  

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23 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

To me, the real question is how long China will be prepared to warehouse the debts incurred by builders on the reportedly 50 mill unsold homes in the "ghost cities"? As investors, I don't have a high opinion of the Chinese. If any country can be attributed with the "Herd mentality investor" label, it is the Chinese. They see people making fortunes from the initial building boom, so it becomes "I'll have some of that". They build and they build and they build, and nobody seems to be noticing that nobody is buying their wares. It's as if Henry Ford never stopped producing the Model T, because it was such a great seller to begin with.

It is because they had only to invest into real estate that was the only one allowed for private invest. Now they have nothing left

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1 hour ago, gummy said:

Carry on kidding yourself then.

China is a massive country with a huge population. Of that there can be no doubt. But Chinas economy relies of continual sustained growth.

If that growth falters for whatever reason the entire house of cards will collapse. 

Would this be a good thing? No I think not because as usual it will be the poorest in the population who have to carry most of the burden of the financial collapse (no different from the west in fact) but that will cause civil unrest.

The CCP will then have to try and deflect the blame (via the state controlled media) onto some external entity. Expect the USA or Taiwan to get blamed. 

These things often end up causing actual wars. Now while the CCP will feel they have the upper hand regarding Taiwan I suspect their "Malvinas" moment is coming. 

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4 hours ago, AussieBob said:

3 times reply? I was going to let it go and move on, but 23 times??  OK - try this:

https://www.heritage.org/conservatism/commentary/how-ronald-reagan-won-the-cold-war

https://thejewishvoice.com/2018/05/without-firing-shot-ronald-reagan-fall-soviet-empire/

If you only read the left wing media stories, you will see very little if any credit given to Reagan. If it was Clinton though he would have been over-credited, and probably nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize 😁 I assume that is why you dont know the details -  if it is otherwise, then lets both move on. 

Sorry I witnessed the fall of the wall and it was not Ronald Reagan . I don't have to read it because I know it and all in Europe, too. We had a few revolutions for example in east germany and thats why the wall fall and do you ever read something what happened inveast europe like Romania. It had nothing to do with Reagan. Ask sombody in Germany if the wall fall in Germany because of Ronald Reagan they would tell you all know. Or do you think in Germany they not know their history? So you want to rewrite the history of Germany and the fall of the wall including reunifaction and everything done without Reagan and he wasnt then even not anymore President and you want to rewrite the history of Europe? There was no Reagan involved when the wall fall german people from both sides broke it down and no Reagan was involved in the negotiateions when it happened , all cam because of the revolution where where millions went to streets and to the wall and broke it down with big hammer in their hands. And millions witnessed on both sides! You really think this sombody can change and rewrite this history? Never ever! I was young and had my education at that time in Germany and I will never forget what happende at these days and when milliins webt to the wall and broke wholes in it with hammers and standing on the wall and the soldiers could do nothing because to much people it was impossible to shoot them all. Thats the reality and you want to deny what all the millions of this country saw and experienced. Maybe you should watch some documentary movies from this time to understand what happened and who brought the wall to fall. Sure not Reagan , the people made it! Comon you write very good comments and I am surprised by that. You really think Europe or Germany doesnt remember how things happened and you think these article could change their history and experience? Never gonna happen!

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1 minute ago, Stardust said:

Sorry I witnessed the fall of the wall and it was not Ronald Reagan . I don't have to read it because I know it and all in Europe, too. We had a few revolutions for example in east germany and thats why the wall fall and do you ever read something what happened inveast europe like Romania. It had nothing to do with Reagan. Ask sombody in Germany if the wall fall in Germany because of Ronald Reagan they would tell you all know. Or do you think in Germany they not know their history? So you want to rewrite the history of Germany and the fall of the wall including reunifaction and everything done without Reagan and he wasnt then even not anymore President and you want to rewrite the history of Europe? There was no Reagan involved when the wall fall german people from both sides broke it down and no Reagan was involved in the negotiateions when it happened , all cam because of the revolution where where millions went to streets and to the wall and broke it down with big hammer in their hands. And millions witnessed on both sides! You really think this sombody can change and rewrite this history? Never ever! I was young and had my education at that time in Germany and I will never forget what happende at these days and when milliins webt to the wall and broke wholes in it with hammers and standing on the wall and the soldiers could do nothing because to much people it was impossible to shoot them all. Thats the reality and you want to deny what all the millions of this country saw and experienced. Maybe you should watch some documentary movies from this time to understand what happened and who brought the wall to fall. Sure not Reagan , the people made it! Comon you write very good comments and I am surprised by that. You really think Europe or Germany doesnt remember how things happened and you think these article could change their history and experience? Never gonna happen!

By the way I will not read it because I witness it, so knowing is something else then to believe.

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4 hours ago, AussieBob said:

3 times reply? I was going to let it go and move on, but 23 times??  OK - try this:

https://www.heritage.org/conservatism/commentary/how-ronald-reagan-won-the-cold-war

https://thejewishvoice.com/2018/05/without-firing-shot-ronald-reagan-fall-soviet-empire/

If you only read the left wing media stories, you will see very little if any credit given to Reagan. 

Ah yes: Heritage! Of course they couldn't possibly be biased could they? I was looking at one of their sites yesterday about the need for electoral reform.

Since 1982, they documented about 1100 cases of proven electoral fraud in ALL elections that have taken place in the US, Putting that into perspective, in that time the 435 seats in "the house" have been voted on nearly 20 times each. The senate, nearly 7 times. POTUS, 10X. Then you have the state and governor elections, mayoral, sheriffs, city, and there are 3243 counties in the US which will have held multiple elections in that time. And I have yet to mention judicial, DA's, AG's LG's, dogcatcher elections etc. In that time, I guess that there have been well over 100k elections that have taken place in the US and well over 2 Bn votes cast.

More to the point, they fail to identify any party having gained a significant advantage through this relatively insignificant skulduggery. which suggests to me, that both sides were equally culpable. So what was the point of publishing this data? I think the timing of it's release gives the clue. It was just 6 weeks after the last US General Election when many were alleging huge electoral fraud which was never proven, and concerns were being expressed over the haste that "Red States" were indulging in order to make it more difficult for the "wrong people" to vote.

It's not only the left wing media that is biased. Reagan certainly played his part, as did his 5 predecessors and Bush after him, but to claim that Reagan's speech was what did it is naïve at best. 

https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud

One final point: The term "left wing media" as used by many conservatives is really almost vacuous. I think most people in Europe would consider the US media as RW. By comparison to them most Americans are conservative, but some are liberal conservatives

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Come on get back on topic.

Russia, Germany (Berlin wall), USA etc has nothing to do with imminent demise of the Chinese economy, I don't care how you justify it, it doesn't wash.

The Chinese companies have overstepped the mark financially not just in Real Estate, airlines (HNN) and many other industries. The Domino effect will get them all and Xi Jiang Ping cannot save them.

Off the book debt will be the downfall.  XJP will throw a lot in jail but that will not help.

The payment from Evergrande is just a stop gap payment to give them time to try and flog off assets.  30 days grace maybe, then it is pay up with another stop gap or your out.

Assets that no one will buy. Why pay top dollar when you can wait a few weeks or a month and get it for half price, in the fire sale of the century.  XJP will lose patience with this lot and force their hand.

Offshore bond holders need to admit it now that they have done their money cold and try to salvage something, XJP will try to save the home crowd and leave you out to dry.

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39 minutes ago, palooka said:

Come on get back on topic.

Russia, Germany (Berlin wall), USA etc has nothing to do with imminent demise of the Chinese economy, I don't care how you justify it, it doesn't wash.

The Chinese companies have overstepped the mark financially not just in Real Estate, airlines (HNN) and many other industries. The Domino effect will get them all and Xi Jiang Ping cannot save them.

Off the book debt will be the downfall.  XJP will throw a lot in jail but that will not help.

The payment from Evergrande is just a stop gap payment to give them time to try and flog off assets.  30 days grace maybe, then it is pay up with another stop gap or your out.

Assets that no one will buy. Why pay top dollar when you can wait a few weeks or a month and get it for half price, in the fire sale of the century.  XJP will lose patience with this lot and force their hand.

Offshore bond holders need to admit it now that they have done their money cold and try to salvage something, XJP will try to save the home crowd and leave you out to dry.

Evergrande has another payment to make on Monday.

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12 hours ago, Stardust said:

Sorry I witnessed the fall of the wall and it was not Ronald Reagan . I don't have to read it because I know it and all in Europe, too. We had a few revolutions for example in east germany and thats why the wall fall and do you ever read something what happened inveast europe like Romania. It had nothing to do with Reagan. Ask sombody in Germany if the wall fall in Germany because of Ronald Reagan they would tell you all know. Or do you think in Germany they not know their history? So you want to rewrite the history of Germany and the fall of the wall including reunifaction and everything done without Reagan and he wasnt then even not anymore President and you want to rewrite the history of Europe? There was no Reagan involved when the wall fall german people from both sides broke it down and no Reagan was involved in the negotiateions when it happened , all cam because of the revolution where where millions went to streets and to the wall and broke it down with big hammer in their hands. And millions witnessed on both sides! You really think this sombody can change and rewrite this history? Never ever! I was young and had my education at that time in Germany and I will never forget what happende at these days and when milliins webt to the wall and broke wholes in it with hammers and standing on the wall and the soldiers could do nothing because to much people it was impossible to shoot them all. Thats the reality and you want to deny what all the millions of this country saw and experienced. Maybe you should watch some documentary movies from this time to understand what happened and who brought the wall to fall. Sure not Reagan , the people made it! Comon you write very good comments and I am surprised by that. You really think Europe or Germany doesnt remember how things happened and you think these article could change their history and experience? Never gonna happen!

I have moved on.

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12 hours ago, JohninDubin said:

To me, the real question is how long China will be prepared to warehouse the debts incurred by builders on the reportedly 50 mill unsold homes in the "ghost cities"? As investors, I don't have a high opinion of the Chinese. If any country can be attributed with the "Herd mentality investor" label, it is the Chinese. They see people making fortunes from the initial building boom, so it becomes "I'll have some of that". They build and they build and they build, and nobody seems to be noticing that nobody is buying their wares. It's as if Henry Ford never stopped producing the Model T, because it was such a great seller to begin with.

Same mentality exists right across Asia - but you are right it is worse in China.  For the first time in a long long time the average Chinese could make some money - so they all jumped on board.  Remember that recent scam in Thailand where that online 'deal' offered so much profit - millions of baht was stolen from people who believe that they could 'get rich quick'.  The thing in China is that they were getting rich quickly - and the Dictatorship supported them doing it - but things are slowing down now as reality finally comes home. Will China collapse - I think they will certainly come down slowly a long way - but if they are unable to manage things post-covid, then yes they will collapse like USSR - slowly but surely.  

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11 hours ago, JohninDubin said:

Ah yes: Heritage! Of course they couldn't possibly be biased could they? I was looking at one of their sites yesterday about the need for electoral reform.

Since 1982, they documented about 1100 cases of proven electoral fraud in ALL elections that have taken place in the US, Putting that into perspective, in that time the 435 seats in "the house" have been voted on nearly 20 times each. The senate, nearly 7 times. POTUS, 10X. Then you have the state and governor elections, mayoral, sheriffs, city, and there are 3243 counties in the US which will have held multiple elections in that time. And I have yet to mention judicial, DA's, AG's LG's, dogcatcher elections etc. In that time, I guess that there have been well over 100k elections that have taken place in the US and well over 2 Bn votes cast.

More to the point, they fail to identify any party having gained a significant advantage through this relatively insignificant skulduggery. which suggests to me, that both sides were equally culpable. So what was the point of publishing this data? I think the timing of it's release gives the clue. It was just 6 weeks after the last US General Election when many were alleging huge electoral fraud which was never proven, and concerns were being expressed over the haste that "Red States" were indulging in order to make it more difficult for the "wrong people" to vote.

It's not only the left wing media that is biased. Reagan certainly played his part, as did his 5 predecessors and Bush after him, but to claim that Reagan's speech was what did it is naïve at best. 

https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud

One final point: The term "left wing media" as used by many conservatives is really almost vacuous. I think most people in Europe would consider the US media as RW. By comparison to them most Americans are conservative, but some are liberal conservatives

Before the next POTUS election in 2024 there will be enacted in many States much stricter laws about voter ID and that is what this is all about. 

Yes - both sides in the media are biased - they both pander to their base.  CNN et al to the left, and Fox et al to the right.  They both sometimes are impartial - but there is no media outlet that is always impartial.

Whatever happens in 2024, the USA is no longer going to 'facilitate' China staying as an economic powerhouse - they are moving to reduce their power and influence. Biden has recently made it clear that Taiwan will be supported by USA - and there are more less pro-China noises emanating out of the White House (not Congress) - trade arrangements are changing and this will continue.

All of that is not good for China's economy, and hopefully the western world will not fall for any of their lies and seek appeasement. Nth Korea has lied and made bulldust concessions for decades - but they still continue to be as bad as they ever were. Hopefully the decline of China will result in their Dictatorship's destruction - and all other military dictatorships right across SEAsia that China currently supports.   

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5 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

Same mentality exists right across Asia - but you are right it is worse in China.  For the first time in a long long time the average Chinese could make some money - so they all jumped on board.  Remember that recent scam in Thailand where that online 'deal' offered so much profit - millions of baht was stolen from people who believe that they could 'get rich quick'.  The thing in China is that they were getting rich quickly - and the Dictatorship supported them doing it - but things are slowing down now as reality finally comes home. Will China collapse - I think they will certainly come down slowly a long way - but if they are unable to manage things post-covid, then yes they will collapse like USSR - slowly but surely.  

They remind me of the people who opened Video Rental Shops. They were buying in, when the smart money was getting out. Now you only have to look at Snooky where there are plans to open 100+ casinos.

But it's not just the ordinary Chinese who who can't see the signs. The Chinese Sovereign Wealth Fund.  persistently lost money in it's first 5 years. It's now the second largest, but a substantial chunk of it is money "pumped in" rather than growth in investments.

Not aware of the scam you are talking about. Link please.

I don't think they will collapse, but I do see them having a rough time for several years to come. 

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