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1 hour ago, oldcpu said:

Actually - 39-million reads to be about right in terms of # of jabs:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccination_in_Thailand

* AZ = 16.16 million jabs given
* Sinovac = 14.4 million jabs given
* J&J = ? unknown jabs given (maybe 0.1 million ??)
* Pfizer - wiki says about 1.5 million jabs given, but given USA donated 4.5 million its likely more than 1.5 million

* Sinopharm - close to 9 million jabs given

I think 39-million is possibly a good number. 

Although another web site suggest the number is lower:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations  (which gives about 26.63-million of at least one jab ... and 11.63 of 2 jabs - which if added up is about  38.26 million)

I just can't see the problem about the number of doses delivered - tot up what the embassies and AZ have said and it's well in excess of 40 million now, including 4.5 million from the US rather than 1.5 million, plus Sinopharm and AZ, nearer to 50 million.

If there's any question about how many have been jabbed, it has to be why more than 38 million haven't been jabbed, not where have the 38 million come from!

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23 minutes ago, Stonker said:

The embassies have reported deliveries, as I said, as have the manufacturers and all these have been reported here.

A quick, 10 second search and you get them all, such as https://thethaiger.com/news/national/3-million-sinovac-doses-arrive-in-bangkok-from-china which alone details 25 million Sinovac!

If you don't believe what the Embassies say, I really don't know who you'll believe unless you count them yourself.

😉 I might believe an embassy if it weren't the CCP one.

You're usually so meticulous...

They haven't even finished jabbing the first 750.000 out of 1.5m of the Pfizer donation that they received 30 July.

Some of the Sinovac deliveries are even more recent and unlikely to have found their way into arms yet. So, taking that at face value and even adding AZ for a few months won't get you to 30m, let alone 39m...

And if you look at the number supposedly delivered, there would hardly have been a shortage needing cancellation of appointments or cessation for longer periods of time as has happened. 

But... Let me be the devil's advocate (even though that's someone else's name here ☺️) If they double jabbed 24m people then let them open up THERE where they protected the people. NOT open other locations where protection is still very low.

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6 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Yes, I absolutely agree.  

Yet some seem to be thinking differently here.

And going along with it just creates repeated Phuket stories, but worse as it can't be contained like on an island elsewhere.

Covid already causes extra deaths and lots of misery.

Early decisions without proper protection just add totally unnecessary deaths and disease on top!

As someone pointed out the other day. Whatever the figures are and whatever authorities are claiming. We, on this forum, are not the intended audience of these distortions. As long as the majority of voters believe it, then it’s job done. The sad news however is that you can fool people, but you can’t fool nature. The reality will be as you say, more unnecessary deaths.
Remind me again what the first priority of any proper form government should be?……. Oh that’s right. The protection of its people 🤔

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23 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Common sense and for anyone who has spent more than a few holidays in Thailand will know, there is something not right with the data coming out of Thailand.  The U.K. has done 92 million jabs in 9 months. Apart from a couple of weeks back in April, where supplies dipped slightly, the U.K. has had no supply problems and an army of medical staff using centralised databases to send out appointments slots. The idea that Thailand, with all of its supply problems, chaotic registrations, add-hoc strategies and ever changing priorities could have achieved 39 million (42%) in 4 months seems like a fisherman’s story if ever there was one. 
As far as I know, there is no independent auditing of these numbers, and so just like their unemployment figures are meaningless. 

 

1 hour ago, Bob20 said:

Can I just add that the UK has been vaccinating since middle of December last year and has done just over double of what Thailand claim? In 9 months, without supply problems, jabbing all over the country non-stop, not just mainly in the capital.

I don't see how 40m here could be even remotely possible in 4-5 months with at least half of that time doing nothing because of shortages and the rest of the time doing mostly only BKK. But I'm happy to be proven wrong.

(Of course we also need to take into account the difference in vaccines, but I'm happy with the numbers for now)

We now seem to have veered from "they can't have done it as they didn't have the vaccines" to now "OK, they had the vaccines, but they can't queue up and they can't have done better than us 'cos we're so clever".

Unlike the US and much of Europe where most vaccines were Moderna and Pfizer so much harder to store and transport, at low temperatures, that applied to less than 10% of the vaccines here and over 90% were Sinowhatever and AZ so much easier to store and deliver.

Thailand has well over a thousand state hospitals used as  local vaccination centres, while the UK has a tenth of that.

Vaccinations, once they're up and running, were / are done in village centres announced over the PA system.

To mix metaphors, you're not just comparing apples and oranges, but cherry picking and moving goalposts.

The UK's Covid management, as it's amply demonstrated, has been an unmitigated disaster and the only thing they did well was to buy six times more vaccines than they need - so much that they've just had to throw away 800,000 doses that had time expired.

Thailand did appallingly with its vaccine procurement and the rollout was and is an irrational scramble, but holding the UK up as an example of "we couldn't do it so Thailand couldn't" given the UK's proven track record is disengenuous, to put it very mildly.

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1 hour ago, Soidog said:

The idea that Thailand, with all of its supply problems, chaotic registrations, add-hoc strategies and ever changing priorities could have achieved 39 million (42%) in 4 months seems like a fisherman’s story if ever there was one. 

IMHO you are far too pessimistic and cynical on Thailand's ability to provide the jabs once they have the vaccine in stock.

Thailand was receiving both Sinovac and AstraZeneca starting back in January of this year.  January to September is 8 months, not your 4 months.  Deployment started in February, where Feb to Sep is 7-months.  Which has me ask about 4 months.  4 months? 

I have (Thai) relatives, who do NOT live in Phuket, who received their 2nd dose of AZ in either late-May or early June, prior to my receiving my 1st AZ jab in late-June.  That mean their 1st AZ was likely in Feb or March.  My Thai wife received her second Sinovac in jab in May.  And its not if she was the only person getting jabs at that time.   

Those early jabs taking place allowed the Thai people to learn how to do the vaccine roll out (once stock in hand) relatively efficiently.

There was a fair amount of vaccination being done prior to mid-June (where from mid-June to now in mid-September is your , not referenced, vaccination drive figure).

Maybe its time to take a step back - and ponder a bit the validity of some of the cynicism?

To put that in context, I think we all agree the vaccination roll out should have started sooner, we all agree that not enough vaccination has been done yet, and we all agree we want to see more vaccination ASAP, and we all agree that it would have been better if it could have been mRNA

... but some of this cynical denial as to what is the case now is IMHO not accurate.

Note also, the 39-million is the # of doses - and NOT the # of people vaccinated.

Edited by oldcpu
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40 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

They haven't even finished jabbing the first 750.000 out of 1.5m of the Pfizer donation that they received 30 July.

According to who, @Bob20?

You're now just making figures up out of nowhere, with nothing to back them up, on the basis that if one argument fails you'll try another so if you throw enough manure some of it will stick.

That's a bit disappointing.

45 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

 If they double jabbed 24m people then let them open up THERE where they protected the people. NOT open other locations where protection is still very low.

Again, you're just throwing mud and making numbers up.

Who's claimed that "they double jabbed 24m people"?

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3 minutes ago, Stonker said:

Who's claimed that "they double jabbed 24m people"?

According to the reference I provided, it is 11.63m who have received 2 jabs. 

I don't recall someone claiming 24m have been double jabbed.  

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3 minutes ago, oldcpu said:

IMHO you are far too pessimistic and cynical on Thailand's ability to provide the jabs once they have the vaccine in stock.

Thailand was receiving both Sinovac and AstraZeneca starting back in January of this year.  January to September is 8 months, not your 4 months.   Which has me ask about 4 months.  4 months? 

You are the one who likes references - from where do you get this "4 months" duration of Thailand vaccination drive figure from ?

I have (Thai) relatives, who do NOT live in Phuket, who received their 2nd dose of AZ in either late-May or early June, prior to my receiving my 1st AZ jab in late-June.  That mean their 1st AZ was likely in Feb or March.  My Thai wife received her second Sinovac in jab in May.  And its not if she was the only person getting jabs at that time.   

Those early jabs taking place allowed the Thai people to learn how to do the vaccine roll out (once stock in hand) relatively efficiently.

There was a fair amount of vaccination being done prior to mid-June (where from mid-June to now in mid-September is your 'magic' 4 month, not referenced, figure).

Maybe its time to take a step back - and ponder a bit the validity of some of the cynicism?

To put that in context, I think we all agree the vaccination roll out should have started sooner, we all agree that not enough vaccination has been done yet, and we all agree we want to see more vaccination ASAP, and we all agree that it would have been better if it could have been mRNA

... but some of this cynical denial as to what is the case now is IMHO not accurate.

Note also, the 39-million is the # of doses - and NOT the # of people vaccinated.

Odd that those of us who are here believe the vaccination figures and the evidence of our own eyes, while those who aren't don't. 😇

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2 minutes ago, oldcpu said:

According to the reference I provided, it is 11.63m who have received 2 jabs. 

I don't recall someone claiming 24m have been double jabbed.  

That seemed to be @Bob20's suggestion - twice the actual number!

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2 minutes ago, Stonker said:

We now seem to have veered from "they can't have done it as they didn't have the vaccines" to now "OK, they had the vaccines, but they can't queue up and they can't have done better than us 'cos we're so clever".

Unlike the US and much of Europe where most vaccines were Moderna and Pfizer so much harder to store and transport, at low temperatures, that applied to less than 10% of the vaccines here and over 90% were Sinowhatever and AZ so much easier to store and deliver.

Thailand has well over a thousand state hospitals used as  local vaccination centres, while the UK has a tenth of that.

Vaccinations, once they're up and running, were / are done in village centres announced over the PA system.

To mix metaphors, you're not just comparing apples and oranges, but cherry picking and moving goalposts.

The UK's Covid management, as it's amply demonstrated, has been an unmitigated disaster and the only thing they did well was to buy six times more vaccines than they need - so much that they've just had to throw away 800,000 doses that had time expired.

Thailand did appallingly with its vaccine procurement and the rollout was and is an irrational scramble, but holding the UK up as an example of "we couldn't do it so Thailand couldn't" given the UK's proven track record is disengenuous, to put it very mildly.

Well, you can't tar two different opinions with the same brush...

Yes, Thailand has many more state hospitals, of which they used only a fraction and mostly in the region around BKK. In most other regions they actually use temporary tents and shopping centers for a couple of hours at a time. So, that's not an argument if they have them but don't use them.

The restricting factors in giving jabs are crowd control, registration / checks and hands to fill and handle syringes.

The low temperature storage for the vaccines, BTW, is no issue for application. When they arrive in the country, they can be transported in ultra-cold storage, or taken out of storage as they have reasonable shelf life. That is no reason for slower delivery if you have the people to jab.

And finally, why is everyone here disgusted with the fact that for a 1.2m provincial population now 29.000 doses have been promised for Chiang Mai's heavenly open-up programme?

I thought you said you believe the figures and that they have about 10m stock waiting? 

If they had them, they would be jabbing like mad and have support for their plans. But it's just words and smoke and mirrors.

Your arguments don't stack up this time.

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3 minutes ago, oldcpu said:

IMHO you are far too pessimistic and cynical on Thailand's ability to provide the jabs once they have the vaccine in stock.

Exactly. Once they have the vaccines in stock. It not pessimism and cynicism. It’s the reality of what is going on. I’ve no doubt that the Thais are just as capable as any other country to administer a country wide vaccination program. But I’m simply not seeing the countrywide initiatives. What I am seeing is appointments cancelled. Closures of vaccination centre because they have run out of vaccines. Changing priorities of where vaccination should take place and which groups are to be vaccinated.
 

Thailand has a well developed health service with some amazing local health workers. But they need better leadership and better tools than they currently have. My estimate is the official figure of circa 40 million is what’s been distributed. Not what’s actually in the arms of people. 

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1 minute ago, Bob20 said:

Yes, Thailand has many more state hospitals, of which they used only a fraction and mostly in the region around BKK. In most other regions they actually use temporary tents and shopping centers for a couple of hours at a time. So, that's not an argument if they have them but don't use them

This is exactly my point @Bob20  there are always those who see any negative negative comment about Thais as a xenophobic or racist attack. My comments are exactly as you say above. Once again, I’ll state that I believe the official figures to be what the government believe has been distributed. It’s not what is officially in the arms of people. As you’ve also stated, key to a good vaccination drive is all the back office aspects such as efficient registration and having sufficiently trained staff to handle the vaccine. 

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8 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Exactly. Once they have the vaccines in stock. It not pessimism and cynicism. It’s the reality of what is going on. I’ve no doubt that the Thais are just as capable as any other country to administer a country wide vaccination program. But I’m simply not seeing the countrywide initiatives. What I am seeing is appointments cancelled. Closures of vaccination centre because they have run out of vaccines. Changing priorities of where vaccination should take place and which groups are to be vaccinated.
 

Thailand has a well developed health service with some amazing local health workers. But they need better leadership and better tools than they currently have. My estimate is the official figure of circa 40 million is what’s been distributed. Not what’s actually in the arms of people. 

I'll go one step further. The 39m may be what is "the total up to today that's confirmed and actually on its way to Thailand" but hasn't all arrived yet.

They are certainly not all in arms. Even in Phuket they still haven't done yet what they claimed 2.5 months ago!

And there aren't millions of vaccines at the GPO waiting to be sent out, otherwise they would use the hospital facilities and not just vaccinate tiny parts of the community.

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7 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Exactly. Once they have the vaccines in stock. It not pessimism and cynicism. It’s the reality of what is going on. I’ve no doubt that the Thais are just as capable as any other country to administer a country wide vaccination program. But I’m simply not seeing the countrywide initiatives. What I am seeing is appointments cancelled. Closures of vaccination centre because they have run out of vaccines. Changing priorities of where vaccination should take place and which groups are to be vaccinated.

I think it more changing priorities and priorities that are not an even countrywide distribution.

We saw that in Phuket,  where the Phuket vaccination drive started quite early, and halted in about the middle - which was not planned. Why? Because suddenly the virus was appearing in locations which before then did not have that many cases (relatively).

So the vaccine drive in Phuket did not halt (in case of Phuket) only because Thailand ran out of doses. Rather priorities shifted, and it was deemed necessary to redirect the doses to areas outside of Phuket, in Thailand, where there were clusters of the virus found.  The Thailand available doses went there.

So it appears to me an even countrywide distribution is not now the plan for priority for the vaccine, nor do I think it has ever been the plan. Instead other priorities were assigned.

I know for certain, assigning the priorities is not a job I would want.

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7 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

I'll go one step further. The 39m may be what is "the total up to today that's confirmed and actually on its way to Thailand" but hasn't all arrived yet.

I seriously doubt that.

Where is your reference for that?

You are the one who likes references.

I provided you 2 references for the approximate 39-million jabs given and you have provided no references for that 'step further' comment of yours. 

Edited by oldcpu
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6 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

I'll go one step further. The 39m may be what is "the total up to today that's confirmed and actually on its way to Thailand" but hasn't all arrived yet.

They are certainly not all in arms. Even in Phuket they still haven't done yet what they claimed 2.5 months ago!

And there aren't millions of vaccines at the GPO waiting to be sent out, otherwise they would use the hospital facilities and not just vaccinate tiny parts of the community.

I agree. Well anyway, like I’ve said before, time will tell. If the figures are right and the pace is maintained,  then in the next 3 months there should be around 80 million jabs. As they will need around 120 million to sort all this mess out, then by March it will be job done and life can return to normal. No need for any restrictions. All businesses open. No need for COE and PCR tests and expensive insurance for tourists. 🤔🤔

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4 minutes ago, Soidog said:

I agree. Well anyway, like I’ve said before, time will tell. If the figures are right and the pace is maintained,  then in the next 3 months there should be around 80 million jabs. As they will need around 120 million to sort all this mess out, then by March it will be job done and life can return to normal. No need for any restrictions. All businesses open. No need for COE and PCR tests and expensive insurance for tourists. 🤔🤔

I hope...

It's not like I want to see anything fail. I just reject the plans that they base on figures that appear to be "massaged" solely to justify the decisions they take.

BTW you said something about attracting negative comments when criticising. I would say that we in the forum (with the exception of some), are far more informed than the average Thai. And with the exception of the ones driving around with notes on their cars demanding "mRNA vaccines", most are happy to receive anything at all and might think they are invincible 5 minutes later.

It's not a bad thing speaking up for them instead of silently let the virus rip in the new "to be eased areas" that are still mostly unprotected.

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49 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

I hope...

It's not like I want to see anything fail. I just reject the plans that they base on figures that appear to be "massaged" solely to justify the decisions they take.

BTW you said something about attracting negative comments when criticising. I would say that we in the forum (with the exception of some), are far more informed than the average Thai. And with the exception of the ones driving around with notes on their cars demanding "mRNA vaccines", most are happy to receive anything at all and might think they are invincible 5 minutes later.

It's not a bad thing speaking up for them instead of silently let the virus rip in the new "to be eased areas" that are still mostly unprotected.

 @Bob20 I couldn’t agree more. I get disappointed when I hear foreigners come out with lines like “if you don’t like it here then why are you here”. It’s not like the comments are about the hot weather or the food. My “negative” comments are observations about what is wrong in any society. I make similar observations about my own country,  which is far from perfect.  Like you I am sceptical about numbers that are not independently verifiable, especially where there are vested interests.  We ALL surely know that Thailand is a highly corrupt country. Even their own government regularly talk about eradicating it and set up groups to monitor it (all smoke and mirrors of course!).  So how on earth can you believe unverified data. It may well be correct. I’m just saying I have no confidence in the data they present as it is highly likely or possible they are using it as positive propaganda. 

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1 hour ago, Bob20 said:

Yes, Thailand has many more state hospitals, of which they used only a fraction and mostly in the region around BKK. In most other regions they actually use temporary tents and shopping centers for a couple of hours at a time.

Sorry, @Bob20, but that's simply not correct.

The hospitals in the provinces were and are used.  It may come as a shock, but outside the cities and provincial capitals, where most of the rural population live, there are no "shopping centres" 😂

1 hour ago, Bob20 said:

The low temperature storage for the vaccines, BTW, is no issue for application. When they arrive in the country, they can be transported in ultra-cold storage, or taken out of storage as they have reasonable shelf life. That is no reason for slower delivery if you have the people to jab.

How can low temperature storage and distribution not be a factor? Your "reasonable shelf life" is five days, which has to cut down the options! This is blinkers-on to the point of absurdity!

1 hour ago, Bob20 said:

I thought   you said you believe the figures and that they have about 10m stock waiting

No, what I said at that time was that adding up what the embassies / countries / manufacturers / suppliers said they'd supplied came to around 10 million more than Thailand said it had jabbed at that time.

Time moves on, and those figures now match the current ones, plus a similar number unaccounted for / unjabbed / in transit as would be expected if the rollout is far from perfect.

1 hour ago, Bob20 said:

 

If they had them they would be jabbing like mad and have support for their plans. 

 

They have been. Maybe not in Chiang Mai, but elsewhere.

1 hour ago, Bob20 said:

And finally, why is everyone here disgusted with the fact that for a 1.2m provincial population now 29.000 doses have been promised for Chiang Mai's heavenly open-up programme?

Aaah ... so that's why you're so upset ...

 

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1 hour ago, Soidog said:

But I’m simply not seeing the countrywide initiatives. What I am seeing is appointments cancelled. Closures of vaccination centre because they have run out of vaccines. Changing priorities of where vaccination should take place and which groups are to be vaccinated.

Maybe because it's hard to "see" from several thousand kilometres away when your "eyes" are primarily those of disgruntled farangs and local inexperienced reporters trying to conjure up attention grabbing headlines that differ radically from both their source reports in more reliable media and from what all those on the ground say.

1 hour ago, Soidog said:

My estimate is the official figure of circa 40 million is what’s been distributed. Not what’s actually in the arms of people.

BASED  ON  WHAT???

 

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7 minutes ago, Stonker said:

Sorry, @Bob20, but that's simply not correct.

The hospitals in the provinces were and are used.  It may come as a shock, but outside the cities and provincial capitals, where most of the rural population live, there are no "shopping centres" 😂

How can low temperature storage and distribution not be a factor? Your "reasonable shelf life" is five days, which has to cut down the options! This is blinkers-on to the point of absurdity!

No, what I said at that time was that adding up what the embassies / countries / manufacturers / suppliers said they'd supplied came to around 10 million more than Thailand said it had jabbed at that time.

Time moves on, and those figures now match the current ones, plus a similar number unaccounted for / unjabbed / in transit as would be expected if the rollout is far from perfect.

They have been. Maybe not in Chiang Mai, but elsewhere.

Aaah ... so that's why you're so upset ...

Your reasons are assumptions and have gone beyond ridiculous now.

5 days is more than enough to distribute thawed vaccines if you say that there are 1000 locations and millions of people waiting in superior settings. They don't have to thaw them all out on the same day!

But they don't use those locations and indeed use shopping centers and tell people from rural areas to travel to them. They're not even making it easy. Plenty of members here have mentioned traveling more than 100km to the nearest place for vaccination.

And your figures are plucked from whatever unofficial hearsay you could find. To be fair, that's not your usual method, but it shows you're just argumentative now and don't have hard evidence.

And your final remark really is bonkers. The same applies to all the new areas for eased access. Low vaccine supply, even though soon they are supposed to be safe areas. If there were millions of doses waiting, they surely would send them to where they are needed.

BTW, I unexpectedly had a jab and will get the second soon, so it's not for self-interest as you imply either.

I started this by asking for facts. Except for figures you've plucked from different unverifiable places you have nothing. You're not the spokesperson nor are you required to provide details. So if you don't have the details, then just like me you can say "don't know". Baseless arguing doesn't make you look intelligent. So my doubt stays and without facts there's nothing more to be said.

If anyone else has hard verifiable numbers, then I am still interested.

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1 hour ago, Bob20 said:

I hope...

It's not like I want to see anything fail. I just reject the plans that they base on figures that appear to be "massaged" solely to justify the decisions they take.

BTW you said something about attracting negative comments when criticising. I would say that we in the forum (with the exception of some), are far more informed than the average Thai. And with the exception of the ones driving around with notes on their cars demanding "mRNA vaccines", most are happy to receive anything at all and might think they are invincible 5 minutes later.

It's not a bad thing speaking up for them instead of silently let the virus rip in the new "to be eased areas" that are still mostly unprotected.

Strangely, as I read through this thread, I agree with the logic of Bob20. I do not agree with the logic of pushing the jabs, but the data analysis is spot on.

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10 minutes ago, Stonker said:

Maybe because it's hard to "see" from several thousand kilometres away when your "eyes" are primarily those of disgruntled farangs and local inexperienced reporters trying to conjure up attention grabbing headlines that differ radically from both their source reports in more reliable media and from what all those on the ground say.

BASED  ON  WHAT???

Fair question. The ball's in your court, now, @Soidog. . . . tough question, I reckon (:-)

And the best of British, including Leeds, who Liverpool will marbleise, this evening.

Cheers to both of you!

KC

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1 hour ago, Soidog said:

If the figures are right and the pace is maintained,  then in the next 3 months there should be around 80 million jabs.

???

Do you mean 80 million more jabs in the next three months?

If so, that would be twice as many as in the last six, so four times the rate!!! 

Even if you only mean 80 million in total, including those administered so far, that's still twice as many as in the last six!!!

Maybe you need to look at you figures again ... 😂

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