News Forum - Covid-19 deaths still high, infections falling, vaccines coming

[Gil]

I was out for a stroll last night, and couldn't help but notice the total lack of control in the bars. No social distancing,no masks, like there was no COVID-19. I can see where the rising infections in Phuket er Coming from. People want to forget, so the drink. Then they forget. Then they get sick.

[Poolie]

17 hours ago, BraveNewFahrenheit said:

When this is all over (if they ever let it end) the deaths will be insignificant, a rounding error and still will not be more than Thailand road carnage deaths in a year. So, we do ZERO for road deaths but turn up response to Covid to 11, sounds really normal and rational.

Just like in the states, we did ZERO for the flu, some years it was bad and could kill a couple hundred thousand, covid, max everything out...some nuance would be nice.

Yes, with the American reaction to the pandemic, the deaths thereof, and the ongoing infections  that surely can't be the way to go.  Or can it, you tell me? I'm not in it for an argument.

[BraveNewFahrenheit]

29 minutes ago, Poolie said:

Yes, with the American reaction to the pandemic, the deaths thereof, and the ongoing infections  that surely can't be the way to go.  Or can it, you tell me? I'm not in it for an argument.

I think that Covid went through and burned up most of the dry tinder already, thousands of deaths were pulled forward. The average stay of a nursing home in the U.S. is six months, that is to say most are dead in six months or less on average. We now know how many nursing home deaths there were....a lot. Recent antibody tests show that many more have been infected already which I think lowers the expected IFR even more.

All that said, looking at the U.S. (where I am from) and knowing that the #1 comorbidity in covid deaths per the CDC is obesity it is not surprising that the deaths were so much greater than say a place like Japan with a 3% obesity rate but MANY more older folks in the general population. The U.S. is a profoundly unhealthy nation. 75% of the population is overweight, 45% is OBESE, and these are averages, women are actually fatter!

We should have locked down the nursing homes and protected the most vulnerable. I think it is fair to say t hat the minimum wage staff (mostly 3rd worlders) in US nursing homes went home every day and brought Covid back in with them and spread it...not maliciously, that's just how it worked out.

[Soidog]

18 hours ago, BraveNewFahrenheit said:

When this is all over (if they ever let it end) the deaths will be insignificant, a rounding error and still will not be more than Thailand road carnage deaths in a year. So, we do ZERO for road deaths but turn up response to Covid to 11, sounds really normal and rational.

Just like in the states, we did ZERO for the flu, some years it was bad and could kill a couple hundred thousand, covid, max everything out...some nuance would be nice.

This is interesting data on so called excess mortality or excess deaths. This is a graph showing a comparison between the number of deaths during the pandemic years (Jan 2020 to now) and comparing it to the average total number of deaths for the previous 5 years in Thailand. As you can see, irrespective of all the analysis of what is counted as a Covid death or suggestions more people die on the roads, or deaths by flu are now counted as Covid etc etc. This clearly shows that currently, 25% more people are dying than the average for the previous 5 years. The only major health problem known over the past 18 months and certainly since April 2021 in Thailand has been Covid 19. If it’s not that causing the current increase, then what else is it? 

 https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores?country=~THA

For comparison, the following link shows the U.S and U.k

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores?country=THA~USA~GBR