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News Forum - Monday Covid Update: 17,491 new cases and 242 deaths


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The Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration recorded 17,491 new Covid-19 cases today and 242 coronavirus-related deaths. A total of 1,037,923 people have tested positive for Covid-19 since April 1, the start of the latest and most severe wave of the coronavirus in Thailand. There are now 195,454 people being treated for Covid-19. The number of active cases has been on a downward slope as the daily recovery count continues to exceed the number of new cases. Today, the CCSA recorded 22,134 recoveries. Out of the new cases reported today, 398 were found in correctional facilities. The latest wave spread to Thailand’s […]

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Is this dip in infection rate caused by increased vaccination coverage?  About one third of people have received their first dose and almost 10 % both doses. So it should start to show by now. Less and less need for people to report their mild flu at the hospital.

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4 minutes ago, THETRUTH said:

Is this dip in infection rate caused by increased vaccination coverage?  About one third of people have received their first dose and almost 10 % both doses. So it should start to show by now. Less and less need for people to report their mild flu at the hospital.

I doubt that to be the case. This dip is statistically expected as it is Monday , hence as most Mondays there appear to be a lessening of testing for the previous Sunday, which after all these figures represent .

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7 minutes ago, gummy said:

I doubt that to be the case. This dip is statistically expected as it is Monday , hence as most Mondays there appear to be a lessening of testing for the previous Sunday, which after all these figures represent .

Eh, obviously I wasn't talking about a daily dip. Daily numbers have no statistical meaning. I am talking about weekly trends. The numbers have been more stable (than in the past) for over a week now. Although on the plotted chart the "dip" looks somewhat sudden and therefore suspicious.

Edited by THETRUTH
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The daily and weekly trends are manipulated by the number of tests carried out.

With a low capacity testing at 100,000 per day then only using around half of that capacity the underlying number of positive covid cases are much higher than they want you to believe.

 

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59 minutes ago, Griff1315 said:

The daily and weekly trends are manipulated by the number of tests carried out.

With a low capacity testing at 100,000 per day then only using around half of that capacity the underlying number of positive covid cases are much higher than they want you to believe.

Unless they change the number of daily executed tests sporadically, the trends in numbers are still based on reality. At the very least it suggests that in some regions, where the testing capacity was previously running at 100 %, there are now less people signing in to get tested, from which we can conclude less infections spreading around in that area.

People have been crying about falsified stats since day 1, but somehow we've gone up from 50... 100... 500 daily cases to over 20,000 now.

Edited by THETRUTH
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This drop in numbers has nothing to do with the level of vaccination which is far too low to have any meaningful impact. If genuine (IF), then a far more likely reason is the impact of restriction imposed several weeks ago. The question is how long do you now leave the restrictions in place? Once they are lifted and if you lift them all, then numbers will increase again . My view is restrictions will be eased in the next couple of weeks as it was foresaw by the boss. This won’t include high risk transmission venues such as bars and nightclubs and indoor dining. Thailand, despite its claim to be unique from the rest of the world, is following the same well worn path as every other country. One of the articles in the Bangkok Post today made me smile. It read - “The Covid-19 pandemic has put the Thai government in a bind, having to choose between protecting lives and protecting their livelihoods.” Wow! You mean like every other government on the planet! Totally asinine comment. God forbid the government will look to other nations and learn from their mistakes. Things that work in other countries don’t work in Thailand it seems. The laws of nature and physics have their own special Thainess. 

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9 minutes ago, Soidog said:

This drop in numbers has nothing to do with the level of vaccination which is far too low to have any meaningful impact. If genuine (IF), then a far more likely reason is the impact of restriction imposed several weeks ago. The question is how long do you now leave the restrictions in place? Once they are lifted and if you lift them all, then numbers will increase again . My view is restrictions will be eased in the next couple of weeks as it was foresaw by the boss.

The useful restrictions have been applied since April and haven't got shit to do with anything. I don't think so. LIfting the restrictions at the same point on the curve where they were initially introduced at seems illogical. It would completely undermine the validity and basis of said restrictions.

Right now it's too early to say what the direction for the curve is. I guess it seems to be starting the downslope. So statistically it would take two months to go back to "only" 5000 daily infections nationally. That's still a crisis if we look back at the talking points from two months ago.

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1 hour ago, THETRUTH said:

About one third of people have received their first dose

First dose doesn’t offer much protection. You need the second dose. Therefore the only percentage that truly matters is the second dose

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17 minutes ago, THETRUTH said:

The useful restrictions have been applied since April and haven't got shit to do with anything. I don't think so. LIfting the restrictions at the same point on the curve where they were initially introduced at seems illogical. It would completely undermine the validity and basis of said restrictions.

Sorry to be thick, but are you saying you support restrictions as they have brought infections down. Or do you think they don’t help in bringing infections down? It’s just that you say they haven’t got shit to do with anything and then you say that lifting them would be illogical? 

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30 minutes ago, 9S_ said:

First dose doesn’t offer much protection. You need the second dose. Therefore the only percentage that truly matters is the second dose

Well good luck on getting the second without having had the first.

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13 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Sorry to be thick, but are you saying you support restrictions as they have brought infections down. Or do you think they don’t help in bringing infections down? It’s just that you say they haven’t got shit to do with anything and then you say that lifting them would be illogical? 

Maybe I should have added a paragraph break in between the two sentences. My personal view is that many of the restrictions are panic-induced reactions and not based on sound expert advise. Shutting down bars etc., however, was probably a justified move but it is not the reason why the rate of infections seems to be decreasing four months after the fact.

We have to assume that the government is mandating requirements based on expert advise after carefully studying the evidense. So if the expert advise at 5000 infections mark was to "close down everything", then these experts obviously should have absolutely no reason to suggest cancelling that mandate at a later-yet-identical point in time. And even less so if we're at, say, 15,000 per day 14 days from now.

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37 minutes ago, 9S_ said:

First dose doesn’t offer much protection. You need the second dose. Therefore the only percentage that truly matters is the second dose

AstraZeneca should offer a fair protection even after a single dose. I don't remember the efficacy of Sinovac, but it's probably very low for this delta variant with regards to symptomatic infections, while again fairly high for serious infections.

Edited by THETRUTH
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26 minutes ago, THETRUTH said:

Maybe I should have added a paragraph break in between the two sentences. My personal view is that many of the restrictions are panic-induced reactions and not based on sound expert advise. Shutting down bars etc., however, was probably a justified move but it is not the reason why the rate of infections seems to be decreasing four months after the fact.

We have to assume that the government is mandating requirements based on expert advise after carefully studying the evidense. So if the expert advise at 5000 infections mark was to "close down everything", then these experts obviously should have absolutely no reason to suggest cancelling that mandate at a later-yet-identical point in time. And even less so if we're at, say, 15,000 per day 14 days from now.

Ok thanks for that, I understand what you are saying. I agree that you should wait until infections are much lower than the point where restrictions were imposed. However, I think the political pressure to ease some restrictions are growing. Easing a few small things may be seen as a way to buy some political time and continue to push on with vaccine rollout. 
 

Like all governments around the world, the Thais are trying to find that impossible balance between lives and livelihoods, while trying to maintain a level of control and acceptance or popularity for their actions. 
 

Thanks again for taking the time to explain 👍🏻

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3 hours ago, Soidog said:
3 hours ago, THETRUTH said:

LIfting the restrictions at the same point on the curve where they were initially introduced at seems illogical. It would completely undermine the validity and basis of said restrictions.

Sorry to be thick, but are you saying you support restrictions as they have brought infections down. Or do you think they don’t help in bringing infections down? It’s just that you say they haven’t got shit to do with anything and then you say that lifting them would be illogical? 

Thick feeling understandable and IMO the unforeseen slight contradiction in @THETRUTH's 'shit to do with' comment. Basically you're on similar, if not same, wavelengths, I suspect . . . I hope so, anyway, after sticking my nose in (:-)

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Just now, King Cotton said:

Thick feeling understandable and IMO the unforeseen slight contradiction in @THETRUTH's 'shit to do with' comment. Basically you're on similar, if not same, wavelengths, I suspect . . . I hope so, anyway, after sticking my nose in (:-)

Yes I think @THETRUTH cleared up my misunderstanding. 

9D660F71-C2E6-4B18-99E7-16B80262F076.gif

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Just received this SMS from the red cross. Not boasting, but I donate blood here.

Feeling like I should ask for a good vaccine as I registered but haven't heard anything. Apparently they can find me when the 3 months are up for the next blood donation though.

IMG_20210823_151824.jpg

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Just received this SMS from the red cross. Not boasting, but I donate blood here.

Feeling like I should ask for a good vaccine as I registered but haven't heard anything. Apparently they can find me when the 3 months are up for the next blood donation though.

IMG_20210823_151824.jpg

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5 hours ago, THETRUTH said:

Is this dip in infection rate caused by increased vaccination coverage?  About one third of people have received their first dose and almost 10 % both doses. So it should start to show by now. Less and less need for people to report their mild flu at the hospital.

Maybe, maybe not. The figures over the weekend and Monday globally tend to be skewed and consequentially lower. Let's see how the next few days pan out. Hopefully it is as a result of vaccs being adiminstered.

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16 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Just received this SMS from the red cross. Not boasting, but I donate blood here.

Feeling like I should ask for a good vaccine as I registered but haven't heard anything. Apparently they can find me when the 3 months are up for the next blood donation though.

IMG_20210823_151824.jpg

That’s becasue you Give blood but you Take vaccines 😉

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1 minute ago, Soidog said:

That’s becasue you Give blood but you Take vaccines 😉

That depends on the POV. 

The Thais take my blood. Can give a vaccine 🤭😉

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3 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

That depends on the POV. 

The Thais take my blood. Can give a vaccine 🤭😉

😂😂. Ok let me put it this way. They gain value from your blood but it costs them to vaccinate you. (Assuming you didn’t pay 😉)

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2 minutes ago, Soidog said:

😂😂. Ok let me put it this way. They gain value from your blood but it costs them to vaccinate you. (Assuming you didn’t pay 😉)

I know what you mean and a donation should have no strings attached. But it does feel a bit lopsided. Give and take seems fairer than take, take, take...

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8 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

I know what you mean and a donation should have no strings attached. But it does feel a bit lopsided. Give and take seems fairer than take, take, take...

This Is Thailand 

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1 hour ago, King Cotton said:

Thick feeling understandable and IMO the unforeseen slight contradiction in @THETRUTH's 'shit to do with' comment. Basically you're on similar, if not same, wavelengths, I suspect . . . I hope so, anyway, after sticking my nose in (:-)

King Cotton, Do you have the latest on which Province is which colour? I'm particularly interested in Chiang Mai. Thanks

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