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40,000 cases a day could happen by September, says projection


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Earlier this month, research by a professor from Mahidol University said worst-case scenario, Thailand could see 32,000 cases a day in a couple of months’ time. Now, according to a projection from the Ministry of Public Health, Thailand could see over 40,000 cases and 500 deaths per day if restrictions are not stringently followed/enforced and all inhabitants give their full cooperation. The projection says the 40,000 cases could be seen by September. The prodigious figure comes from a “Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovery compartmental mathematical model”. Dr Rungruang Kitpati, who is the advisor and spokesperson for the Ministry, referenced the model […]

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This is the 'price' of the 'go-to family for Songkran' and wanting to keep 'Krungthep open'.
I understand that Bangkokians don't like to be isolated, but putting your selfish need for parties in front of the health of others... well f*ck me. I haven't seen a bar since this Songkran lockdown - Do I miss it, sure... but I'm one of those Foreigners whom actually follows the rules am I scared to die of COVID.... not really but wouldn't want that somebody else dies from my actions.

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Posted (edited)

 Protection against the CCP’s gift that keeps on giving ,Double masks ,face shield and a bottle of 70% ! 

Never leave home without it!

Edited by riclag
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Posted (edited)

Bugger my birthday is in September, I was rather hoping to treat the Mrs to a deluxe meal out, with wine of course, bugger, bugger, bugger, come on Covid Csar sort the freaking thing out.

 

Stupid me, just all he can do is offer pathetic platitudes and do SFA. Now I am peed off.

Edited by Golden-Triangle
Word missing
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1 minute ago, Golden-Triangle said:

Bugger my birthday is in September, I was rather hoping to treat the Mrs to a deluxe meal out, with wine of course, bugger, bugger, bugger, come on Covid Csar sort the freaking thing out.

Stupid me, just all he can do is offer pathetic platitudes and do SFA. Now I am peed off.

No problem he stated the other day the worst would be over in 4 weeks

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Do I hear 30,000, 30,000, 30,000, done. Can I hear 40,000, 40,000, 40,000, done, 50,000, 50,000, 50,000, 50,000, done, 100,000, 100,000, 150,000, 150,000 done. We have a winner at 150,000 and 32,000 dead. Sold to the winner Sinovac.

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17 minutes ago, riclag said:

 Protection against the CCP’s gift that keeps on giving ,Double masks ,face shield and a bottle of 70% ! 

Never leave home without it!

Don't forget to jab  your Sinovac!

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7 minutes ago, Golden-Triangle said:

Bugger my birthday is in September, I was rather hoping to treat the Mrs to a deluxe meal out, with wine of course, bugger, bugger, bugger, come on Covid Csar sort the freaking thing out.

Stupid me, just all he can do is offer pathetic platitudes and do SFA. Now I am peed off.

Looks like a home candle light dinner for two brought to you by - we all know who and Panda.

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33 minutes ago, Shark said:

This is the 'price' of the 'go-to family for Songkran' and wanting to keep 'Krungthep open'.
I understand that Bangkokians don't like to be isolated, but putting your selfish need for parties in front of the health of others... well f*ck me. I haven't seen a bar since this Songkran lockdown - Do I miss it, sure... but I'm one of those Foreigners whom actually follows the rules am I scared to die of COVID.... not really but wouldn't want that somebody else dies from my actions.

First let me say the authorities acted irresponsible ,I agree !

Im sitting up here in Sakon Nakhon ,we ,like many of the NORTH EAST,didn’t get spikes or many positive cases until the middle of June when they decided to announce on a Friday that they were locking down construction sites the following Monday!Only than the $hit hit the fan! 
I think many countries leading class have acted irresponsible in some capacity but this country is …

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9 minutes ago, gummy said:

No problem he stated the other day the worst would be over in 4 weeks

I don’t see that over qualified security guard being around much longer ,at least he shouldn’t! But than again ,the next sod won’t be much better dealing with this crisis he inherited.

The CCP gift will be around for quite a while!

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19 minutes ago, gummy said:

No problem he stated the other day the worst would be over in 4 weeks

Yes I forgot that. That’s great news. I’ll book my flights straightaway ?

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Europe and the USA are in the midst of a resurgence of Corvid and we are seeing “breakthrough” infections of the vaccinated sky rocket. Even the mRNA vaccines are seeing breakthrough infections.  I know that can happen first hand. Fully vaccinated individuals are catching corvid and some are even dying from the disease. Thailand got a tragic late start to vaccinating the public. But seeing what’s happening in the west I don’t see how any nation can be expected to fully escape this plague. Perhaps enough vaccinated people will help bring down the death count and the hospitalizations here. I think the tourism rebound is a pipe dream for the immediate future.

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9 minutes ago, Stef said:

Europe and the USA are in the midst of a resurgence of Corvid and we are seeing “breakthrough” infections of the vaccinated sky rocket. Even the mRNA vaccines are seeing breakthrough infections.  I know that can happen first hand. Fully vaccinated individuals are catching corvid and some are even dying from the disease. 

True but it’s still mostly effecting those who are unvaccinated. Over 95% of all cases and hospitalization is unvaccinated people. The resurgence is still heavily in areas with low vaccination rates. Not disagreeing with you, just pointing out vaccinations do help quite a bit and it is Thailand’s only way out in the long run. 

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17 minutes ago, Stef said:

Europe and the USA are in the midst of a resurgence of Corvid and we are seeing “breakthrough” infections of the vaccinated sky rocket. Even the mRNA vaccines are seeing breakthrough infections.  I know that can happen first hand. Fully vaccinated individuals are catching corvid and some are even dying from the disease.

Sky rocket???    The mRNA vaccines work.

 

 

As of July 26, 2021, more than 163 million people in the United States had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19.

During the same time, CDC received reports from 49 U.S. states and territories of 6,587 patients with COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infection who were hospitalized or died.

 

Total number of vaccine breakthrough infections reported to CDC
Hospitalized or fatal vaccine breakthrough cases reported to CDC 6,587
Female 3,193 (48%)
People aged ≥65 years 4,868 (74%)
Asymptomatic infections 1,219 (19%)
Hospitalizations* 6,239 (95%)
Deaths† 1,263 (19%)

 

 

COVID-19 vaccines are effective

  • Vaccine breakthrough cases occur in only a small percentage of vaccinated people. To date, no unexpected patterns have been identified in the case demographics or vaccine characteristics among people with reported vaccine breakthrough infections.

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html

 

 

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1 hour ago, Thaiger said:

The projection says the 40,000 cases could be seen by September. The prodigious figure comes from a “Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovery compartmental mathematical model”.

“Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovery compartmental mathematical model”, from the Ministry man, Dr Rungruang, or however else these learned medics like to caption their scary findings, since 17 July, when the Mahidol Uni professor gave his 32K prediction, my trusty Excel chart has shown a steady increase of 5% per day, as is verified by today's 18,900 new case number. That's a pretty consistent growth of 5% per day for a full two weeks.

Reasonable to assume, I feel, that this 5% growth is a feasible measure of the rate of Covid-19 spread, across the country and, to my mathematically logical mind, should this 5% continue, the good prof's latest 40K prediction will be reality on or around 15th August.

Enjoy your beers, tonight, as you mull whichever you ought to be believing . . .

  1. Prayut's pandemic 3rd wave conclusion by 21 August
  2. Dr Rungruang's 40K by September or
  3. An Excel believer's 40K by 15 August . . . ?

I'm sticking with #3 and helping it sink in with an extra beer, tonight.

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Quote

The projection says the 40,000 cases could be seen by September.

well they like always very positive, let's see, i predict in the next 2 weeks, do the math of multiplying and opening up places...today 31 July, by 15 August we reach the 40,000 or we way over it (what i think will happen), with all predictions i made in public so far all happened... do not doubt a second about this one to happen too

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Of course the cases will go up as they are going up in many countries due the Delta version, the UK for instance had 50,000 cases a day a few weeks ago.

The difference is 75% of us have had two injections in the UK, the country has been completely open for a few weeks now but the death rate is very low compared to the infections due to the vaccinations.

The problem in Thailand is as we all know, very few people have had a vaccine shot and so the death rate will be higher.

I should have been in Phuket for my six months trip but I am keeping away as I don't want to go there and things change into a total lockdown as happened to me last year for seven months.

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2 minutes ago, JamesR said:

Of course the cases will go up as they are going up in many countries due the Delta version, the UK for instance had 50,000 cases a day a few weeks ago.

The difference is 75% of us have had two injections in the UK, the country has been completely open for a few weeks now but the death rate is very low compared to the infections due to the vaccinations.

The problem in Thailand is as we all know, very few people have had a vaccine shot and so the death rate will be higher.

I should have been in Phuket for my six months trip but I am keeping away as I don't want to go there and things change into a total lockdown as happened to me last year for seven months.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/cdc-study-shows-74percent-of-people-infected-in-massachusetts-covid-outbreak-were-fully-vaccinated.html

 

 

JUST IN - SAGE, the UK's health "expert panel," warns next Covid "super mutant variant" could kill up to one in three people, and the "vaccine roll-out may even speed up mutant strain's emergence."

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9844701/SAGE-Covid-variant-kill-one-three-people.html

SAGE report published today:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/long-term-evolution-of-sars-cov-2-26-july-2021

 

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8 minutes ago, Xaos said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/cdc-study-shows-74percent-of-people-infected-in-massachusetts-covid-outbreak-were-fully-vaccinated.html

JUST IN - SAGE, the UK's health "expert panel," warns next Covid "super mutant variant" could kill up to one in three people, and the "vaccine roll-out may even speed up mutant strain's emergence."

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9844701/SAGE-Covid-variant-kill-one-three-people.html

SAGE report published today:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/long-term-evolution-of-sars-cov-2-26-july-2021

For the benefit of the blind and/or deaf, here and for the 3rd time of showing is @Xaos's mind-blowing post.

Meanwhile, in 'Other News' . . .

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