News Forum - Thai aviation industry says international flights at only 20% of pre-pandemic level
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Thaiger,
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News Forum - Armed robber escapes with gold worth 800,000 baht in Thailand
... where the plonker will try to sell the stolen gold chains. -
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News Forum - Jungceylon undergoes renovation to become a one-stop shopping paradise
'shopping' and 'paradise' never go together in my book -
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News Forum - Thailand News Today | Thailand no longer considers Covid “dangerous infectious disease”
I think I replied to or was replied to by Palooka on some occasions, but don't recall if we agreed or disagreed in general. I am however very sure they "got" what you wrote. They're probably wiser than me because they didn't reply and I am. At the base, your observation that those who died with covid would have died anyway is perfectly valid (after all, we all die and the older we are the sooner it happens) but your argument (to abuse that term for what's merely a suggestive statement) that therefore most people can only die "with" and not "because of" covid is just bollocks. Just looking at excess death rates all around the world, covid clearly has had a major impact. Looking at Thailand's trajectory, it's a late comer: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-average-baseline?country=~THA I'm not one of those who think deaths should be prevented at all costs, but I am one of those who think that if you express an opinion based on some statistics you should also provide them -- and certainly not ask for them like you did. You may want to counter my statistics, perhaps by claiming that there're inaccurate, or perhaps by claiming that "most are indirect results" (suicides', postponed treatments etc.). That would be fine (even great). Just substantiate it. -
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Why take the Vaccine now?
Actually, this goes back to case definition. COVID-19 is the disease, not the name of the virus. After over 30 years, we generally know the difference between HIV, HIV-status and AIDS. COVID-19 is diagnosed through various means. Most commonly it is diagnosed through an in vitro diagnostic test, with confirmation through PCR. In microbiological terms, the absolute gold standard for any viral or bacterial infection is a cell assay. You either culture the bacterium on agar, perform various identifying tests. For viruses, you need to measure whether a suspected virus attacks a particular cell type. No approved test for SAR-Cov2 exists. I know pretty quickly they were able to isolate the virus in monkey cells, and probably now someone has a working assay in human or humanised cells, but that is a long way from being a realistic test to be carried out on a routine basis. Vaccines, until now, would be described as a sterilizing vaccine or a non-sterilizing vaccine. Sterilizing vaccines, by most lay people, would be assumed to be vaccines that eliminate infection. How do we know they eliminate infection? No dead, dying, sick people is the measure. But until recently, the way to measure the effectiveness of a vaccine in a population would be the disappearance of cases, the lack of sick people. The Measles vaccine is generally touted as being one of the most effective vaccines out there. How do we know? A population of vaccinated kids doesn't get measles. How do we know they don't get measles? The lack of a visible rash. The "problem" is that when you start looking at that population in detail; taking blood samples, carrying out molecular tests such as PCR to look for evidence of infection, you do find evidence that vaccinated children can be infected by the measles virus. What you are not finding is evidence of children becoming ill expressing the most profound symptom, a rash. So, the vaccine does a very good job of preventing Measles the illness, which is probably the most important achievement. COVID-19 is a complex disease, affecting people in different was. For many, its a mild respiratory illness, for others, a life threatening vascular disease. Because the Sars-Cov-2 virus infects cells via the ACE2 receptor, it can find its way to pretty much any part of the body. ACE2 is a very important receptor, tied into our vascular system. And its not well understood. It might have a different role at different times in life; maybe why children are less affected. It has a different role in young men compared to young women. In a very short space of time, we have recognised "COVID-19" through a wide spectrum of symptom. At the same time, this is the first pandemic in history to have been identified through molecular biology. PCR is great as a presumptive test. But it can't really distinguish between an active and inactive infection. Hence the problems some people experience getting a negative result following a positive. But, its the best science has got right now, in terms of something that can be readily deployed as a routine test. I know there are technologies out there which are better, and closer to being used as a genuine confirmatory test. I suspect in 5 years, we will see these tests being used both in hospitals and in the home. Are the current first generation SAR2-Cov-2 vaccine effective at reducing COVID-19. I believe they are, if I measure COVID-9 as being something that puts you in hospital. Hospitalisations are reduced, even among those who are at increased risk, and who, until now, been shielding (nullifying the argument that reductions are entirely driven by community acquired immunity). These vaccines are doing the job we wanted them to do in the first place; reduce death rates, reduce pressures on healthcare systems. The next round of vaccines might start to tackle the presence of SARS-Cov-2. Smallpox vaccination was introduced by Jenner, who improved the Turkish approach of "innoculation", which entailed stuffing a scab from a smallpox victim into the wound of someone who didn't, with the outcome of being either you are dead, or you will never get smallpox. But British Smallpox vaccination didn't really start in earnest until the 1850s, with the Vaccine Act, making it compulsory for children to be vaccinated. This lead to riots, most notably in Leicester, where doctors then developed the Leicester Method, what we now call Track and Trace, as an alternative. By the 1900s, the Act was watered down, allowing opt outs by parents. By 1947, it was abolished by the Labour Party, following one of its founding principles. Vaccine rates across Europe declined. The re-emergence of the disease in Europe in the 1950s scared the bejesus out of governments, who thought this scourge had been confined to faraway places. So started in the 1960s, the WHO plan to eliminate Smallpox. By the late 70s, Smallpox was declared effectively extinct. Polio, following a 40 year campaign, was well on its way to being also wiped out. Conflict in Afghanistan and problems in the Congo put paid to that. But there are hundreds of vaccines in use, over the last 40-50 years, with one achieving complete success after 200 of development, and 20 years of coordinated roll out. But success can be measured in different ways. Elimination of the causative agent, reduction in illness, seroconversion rates, uptake rates. If COVID-19 had happened 20 years ago, with the same vaccines, lay people would have been pretty unified in thinking the vaccine was a complete success. Because there would not have been a PCR test. Diagnosis would probably have been achieved mostly by CT Imaging, and some bloods. If you are genuinely interested in the achievements of different vaccine campaigns, this is a good primer: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6777997/ If President Biden had not been vaccinated, would he have survived infection? Probably not. In fact, from all descriptions, Biden's recent infection was on the mildest of spectrums. By comparison, President Trump, who's doctor described him as the healthiest President in history (and the doctor had credentials beyond reproach, and wouldn't lie, would he), needed advanced experimental medical treatment. Boris Johnson, who while actively enjoying cycling, tennis, rugby, nearly died, but for a pair of very diligent nurses who ensure that the First Among Equals survived for another day, along with some brilliant collaboration between the NHS and F1 Mercedes (a largely forgotten story of medical success). March 2020 marks a remarkable time in Medical history. For the first time ever, an effective vaccine was developed in the middle of a global pandemic. That AZ vaccine, which is a good vaccine, was designed in 48 hours by a team of dedicated researchers at Oxford. Nothing was needed to be changed by the time it made it to production and EUA. It took Salk 10 years and a President to get the Polio vaccine developed. It took the Australians 15 years and a World War to come up with the first flu vaccine. -
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News Forum - Bangkok gets 20 new electric buses next week
May one enquire from where were these buses are being sourced and what credentials the manufacturer has. There is a history of acquiring things through dubious specially created companies from cheap and unproven Chinese sources. Will this be the case this time?- 1
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