News Forum - Ukraine’s Zelensky defies Russia’s ultimatum to lay down weapons

[EdwardV]

Reports that marines from Crimea refused to attack Odesa. - That was my favorite part. I think it got taken down because it was from twitter ??? 

 

 

Ukraine has claimed two Russian sea mines have washed onto one of its beaches in stormy weather. The Ukrainian military said the explosives were found in the Odessa region on Saturday.

Russian sea mines wash up onto Ukraine beach (yahoo.com)

I don't know about you, but those sure look like Russian mines hahaha 

 

[Fanta]

7 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

Reports that marines from Crimea refused to attack Odesa. - That was my favorite part. I think it got taken down because it was from twitter ??? 

Ukraine has claimed two Russian sea mines have washed onto one of its beaches in stormy weather. The Ukrainian military said the explosives were found in the Odessa region on Saturday.

Russian sea mines wash up onto Ukraine beach (yahoo.com)

I don't know about you, but those sure look like Russian mines hahaha 

I posted the Twitter link (it auto embedded) and I didn’t type any text as it was already wordy and pretty self explanatory. Forum rules is you have to type text when making a post. It came from this page

https://gcaptain.com/russia-may-have-mined-ukrainian-waters-says-nato/

The Marines refused to approach the beach because they didn’t want to get shot or they saw some mines there? Seems odd to send your guys to attack through a minefield.

 

[EdwardV]

28 minutes ago, Fanta said:

The Marines refused to approach the beach because they didn’t want to get shot or they saw some mines there? Seems odd to send your guys to attack through a minefield.

Well it seems the Russian navy knows where the mines are so that shouldn't have been an issue. Not sure it's the Marines call either way. 

How do you see an underwater mine from the surface? Isn't  that the entire point, to get the ships to go in because they don't know mines are there? 

I'm guessing the Russian Navy doesn't live by the motto: "Damn the torpedo's, full speed ahead" - Admiral Farragut US Navy American Civil War (torpedo's at the time are what we call mines nowadays). 

[Fanta]

43 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

Well it seems the Russian navy knows where the mines are so that shouldn't have been an issue. Not sure it's the Marines call either way. 

Seems to know? You claim the Russian navy knows where the mines are. The Marines must have been left out of the loop….. and you haven’t explained away the image of the Ukraine tugs repeatedly leaving ports and going nowhere. Patrols for what? Sure looks like a mine laying operation. I guess until we see the sea mines painted in Ukraine colors, stamped Slava Ukrani! and signed by Zelenskyy then the mines must be Russian and even then it is probably a disinformation campaign, right? 
btw: no-me can explain how the Russians got near the ports to lay the mines but that’s irrelevant?

[Fanta]

Interesting theory - was the  Moskva really sunk by Harpoons… Maybe it was really hit by mines? No images of the impact areas on the frigate, the missiles launched, drone footage to prove Ukraine’s claim. Plus the claim that the frigate was hit because it was distracted by a drone seems unlikely. Missiles would be coming in simultaneously from many directions during an attempt to sink a ship. Every other Russian ship we have seen hit has been accompanied by footage with a funky soundtrack. Either an own goal for Russia or Ukraine mines did the damage but that must be denied because it doesn’t match the Kyiv narrative that the Russians have mined the waters.

 

[birdman]

6 hours ago, vlad said:

This thread is about Zelenski ignoring an ultimatum to lay down arms, not Flipper laying mines.

I Know but if someone says i am spreading disinformation don't you think i should

respond to that?

If you look at it closely my response to you is also off topic and so is your response to mine.

If this is going to go this way then you guys are very welcome to go on without me.

[EdwardV]

2 hours ago, Fanta said:

Seems to know? You claim the Russian navy knows where the mines are. The Marines must have been left out of the loop….. and you haven’t explained away the image of the Ukraine tugs repeatedly leaving ports and going nowhere. Patrols for what? Sure looks like a mine laying operation. I guess until we see the sea mines painted in Ukraine colors, stamped Slava Ukrani! and signed by Zelenskyy then the mines must be Russian and even then it is probably a disinformation campaign, right? 
btw: no-me can explain how the Russians got near the ports to lay the mines but that’s irrelevant?

I was giving the Russians the benefit of the doubt. No surprise in the least the Marines were left out of the loop. Maybe the tugs were tugging? Besides the fact tugs are not designed to lay mines, you really think the Russian navy would let them do that trip after trip after trip? After all, as you pointed out before Russia owns the Black Sea. How did they get near? See prior sentence. That’s not even considering the fact subs are very good at laying mines. And Russia has lots of subs in the Black Sea. 

[EdwardV]

2 hours ago, Fanta said:

Interesting theory - was the  Moskva really sunk by Harpoons… Maybe it was really hit by mines? No images of the impact areas on the frigate,

It was hit by Neptune missiles. That said there are pictures of the Moskva post strike which shows the impact area on the hill. Here is an article with such picture, just scroll down: 

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2022/5/6/us-pentagon-denies-helping-ukraine-sink-russian-ship-moskva

Keeping in mind at this point the ship is listing so the impact area is lower to the water than at the time of impact. Pretty much a classic hull shot for a sea skimmer missile. A mine would have blown up below or at the waterline. A listing ship wouldn’t show that in the picture. 
 

I don’t think the Neptune missiles have the ability to independently attack from different directions. To do so requires mid course correction and a source for the data. Ukraine doesn’t have that ability to my knowledge. Yet. I agree it’s unlikely the Moskva was distracted but not for the reason you think. It appears in that same picture, the Moskva’s radars are in the stored position. Also you can see none of its anti aircraft missiles are positioned to fire. Had they seen the drone that wouldn’t be the case. Of course why the ships radars are storied is a whole different question. 

[Fanta]

Looks like the blockade will be cleared via military means. Isn’t that a surprise! Of course, no US Intelligence will be involved with this either effort.  lol

https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive-us-aims-arm-ukraine-with-advanced-anti-ship-missiles-fight-russian-2022-05-19/

[Fester]

10 hours ago, Fanta said:

I thought I posted this yesterday but it disappeared. Maybe because I didn’t write anything.

Well done Haw Haw. Your Daily Fail was published too early this morning for me. Hoping I'd miss it? This map has nothing to do with Odessa, it's all of the Romanian coast around Constanta. This tweet is about as accurate as you normally are - I hope he's not a captain! H I Sutton - defence analysis?  OMG.

Most of the larger targets are commercial ships in and out of Constanta and the wee ones are fishermen further north. All setting mines of course!  

[Fester]

8 hours ago, Fanta said:

Seems to know? You claim the Russian navy knows where the mines are. The Marines must have been left out of the loop….. and you haven’t explained away the image of the Ukraine tugs repeatedly leaving ports and going nowhere. Patrols for what? Sure looks like a mine laying operation. I guess until we see the sea mines painted in Ukraine colors, stamped Slava Ukrani! and signed by Zelenskyy then the mines must be Russian and even then it is probably a disinformation campaign, right? 
btw: no-me can explain how the Russians got near the ports to lay the mines but that’s irrelevant?

Already explained - probably submarines. What else have they had to do?

[Fanta]

Someone should send these guys a copy of Downfall. 

“The deputy commander of the Azov Regiment, which led the defence of the Azovstal steel mill in Mariupol, has said that he and other fighters are still inside the plant: 

An operation is under way, the details of which I will not announce,” Svyatoslav Palamar said in a brief video message.

 

[Alavan]

6 hours ago, EdwardV said:

It was hit by Neptune missiles. That said there are pictures of the Moskva post strike which shows the impact area on the hill. Here is an article with such picture, just scroll down: 

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2022/5/6/us-pentagon-denies-helping-ukraine-sink-russian-ship-moskva

Keeping in mind at this point the ship is listing so the impact area is lower to the water than at the time of impact. Pretty much a classic hull shot for a sea skimmer missile. A mine would have blown up below or at the waterline. A listing ship wouldn’t show that in the picture. 
 

I don’t think the Neptune missiles have the ability to independently attack from different directions. To do so requires mid course correction and a source for the data. Ukraine doesn’t have that ability to my knowledge. Yet. I agree it’s unlikely the Moskva was distracted but not for the reason you think. It appears in that same picture, the Moskva’s radars are in the stored position. Also you can see none of its anti aircraft missiles are positioned to fire. Had they seen the drone that wouldn’t be the case. Of course why the ships radars are storied is a whole different question. 

As I posted just after the sinking, I think we have a loss of stability due to free surface (term known by all officers, frequently asked on examinations). It often happens when firefighting on board. You get a negative stability and capsizing as all the firefighting water moves to one side. Check the sinking of Normandie in the port of New York during fire fighting on board in WW2.
Also the Herald of Free Enterprise capsizing was by the free watersurface in the garage.

[Faraday]

An off topic & irrelevant video removed.

Moderator 

[Fester]

10 hours ago, Fanta said:

Interesting theory - was the  Moskva really sunk by Harpoons… Maybe it was really hit by mines? No images of the impact areas on the frigate, the missiles launched, drone footage to prove Ukraine’s claim. Plus the claim that the frigate was hit because it was distracted by a drone seems unlikely. Missiles would be coming in simultaneously from many directions during an attempt to sink a ship. Every other Russian ship we have seen hit has been accompanied by footage with a funky soundtrack. Either an own goal for Russia or Ukraine mines did the damage but that must be denied because it doesn’t match the Kyiv narrative that the Russians have mined the waters.

Maybe it was hit by mines but that is very unlikely so far offshore . No vdo's from drones because no drones around there for same reason. Missiles would not be incoming from "many directions" because there were only two of them! 

[EdwardV]

6 hours ago, Fanta said:

Looks like the blockade will be cleared via military means. Isn’t that a surprise! Of course, no US Intelligence will be involved with this either effort.  lol

It's an option, personally I don't think it's a great one but it might work. You could easily drive the Russian naval ships back, but I don't think that really opens up the blockade. It still comes down to are the Russians willing to snatch up ships in international waters or shoot at them if needed. I think both answers to that are yes. Now if you could pick off a few of those Russian frigates, it makes going though the exercise worth it. 

Unsurprisingly Ukraine is asking for more long distance weapons than just the anti-ship missiles: 

 

Pelosi and Crow relayed Zelenskyy’s weapon requests to Biden and Defense Department officials during a meeting at the White House last week. Crow said multiple launch rocket systems would help defend major Ukrainian metropolitan centers from Russian advances while bolstering offensive operations in Donbas and Luhansk. He also noted Zelenskyy has asked for “more sophisticated intelligence and surveillance drones as well as attack drones that can be reused multiple times instead of the Kamikaze drones we’ve given them.”

Here are the high-end weapons Zelenskyy hopes the new Ukraine aid bill will provide (yahoo.com)

They specifically want US made MLRS rocket systems. Either the US tracked M270 or wheeled M142, pretty sure they are not too picky on either one. The US has been hesitant of late because they are afraid Ukraine will use them to hit targets inside Russia and widen the war. However I have a feeling they will get them (had thought they already did, but I guess not) as they are excellent long range weapon systems. Exactly what Ukraine needs. They also want Reaper and Predator drones. Of course the problem is the same as above. It will be interesting to see if Ukraine gets Harpoon or Navel Strike Missile. The reason being, with the NSM it actually has the ability to hit ships docked in Sevastopol (read subs!). 

 

 

[vlad]

I worked all my life building Naval ships both surface and Nuke subs my apprenticeship was served on HMS Invincible I finished on Astute-class Nukes. I can assure you once water enters a vessel in a hull breach like a Combat ship unless they can pump out enough the ship will capsize or simply sink. Watertight doors or bulkheads will not prevent the inevitable once a ship is struck by a missile even if it is hit above the waterline. The firefighting water will cause a list that will cause the vessel to list over once the water goes into the hole that the missile made its over. The Moskva suffered this fate they had enough time to abandon it but some will have been killed in the missile strike.

[EdwardV]

In a sign of Russian desperation: 

In a sign of Russia's urgent need to bolster its war effort in Ukraine, parliament said on Friday it would consider a bill to allow Russians over 40 and foreigners over 30 to sign up for the military.

Russia has suffered huge setbacks and heavy losses of men and equipment in the 86-day-old war, in which Ukraine has mobilised practically its entire adult male population. Despite taking full control of the ruins of Mariupol, Moscow remains far from its objective of seizing all of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. "Clearly, the Russians are in trouble. This is the latest attempt to address manpower shortages without alarming their own population. But it is growing increasingly difficult for the Kremlin to disguise their failures in Ukraine," said retired U.S. General Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe. Jack Watling, a land warfare specialist at the British security and defence think tank RUSI, said the Russian military was running short of infantry.

Struggling in Ukraine, Russia paves way to sign up over-40s for army | Reuters

Actually I think it's a good plan. Just that it's not a quick fix and it's to be seen how successful they will be in convincing people to join when it's already not going well. Regardless, they are at best playing at the margins over a much bigger problem. 

[Fanta]

4 hours ago, EdwardV said:

In a sign of Russia's urgent need to bolster its war effort in Ukraine, parliament said on Friday it would consider a bill to allow Russians over 40 and foreigners over 30 to sign up for the military

Apparently Russia are forming new divisions in the west.

 

“In a speech, Mr Shoigu also said the United States had stepped up strategic bomber flights in recent years, sent warships to the Baltic Sea and intensified training exercises in the region with its NATO partners.

He said Russia would respond by forming new military units and divisions along its western border, and it was working to improve the combat strength of its troops.

“By the end of the year, 12 military units and divisions will be established in the western military district," he said.”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-21/russia-says-troops-close-to-controlling-luhansk-ukraine/101086918

If Russia needs more soldiers at the Ukrainian front (I like that term) why not just call up the reserves?

 

[EdwardV]

17 minutes ago, Fanta said:

If Russia needs more soldiers at the Ukrainian front (I like that term) why not just call up the reserves?

That gets back to the article I posted last week about the difficulty Russia has in calling up reserves. They don't run a system like the West which has a ready reserve of semi-trained troops. It's more of just a list of names with people who has served in the last 10 years. However I completely agree, why not just call some of them up? So what if it's hard, just do it and start the process. There has to be some type of domestic reason???  

[Fanta]

Mariupol has been completely “liberated”

The full abandonment of the bunkers and tunnels of the bombed-out plant by the Azov Regiment means an end to the most destructive siege of a war that began when Russia invaded Ukraine nearly three months ago

Russia’s state news agency RIA Novosti has quoted the country’s defence ministry as saying a total of 2,439 Ukrainian fighters who had been holed up at Mariupol’s steel plant had surrendered since Monday, including more than 500 on Friday.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-remaining-531-azovstal-defenders-surrender-steelworks-siege-over-2022-05-20/

[EdwardV]

The United Kingdom has completely lifted all of the restrictions on the export of defence products to Turkey that were brought in following Ankara's 2019 offensive on northeast Syria, Turkey’s chief defence industry officer Ismail Demir said on Friday. 

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/uk-turkey-defence-exports-restrictions-lifted
 

Sounds like Finland to me 

[Fanta]

51 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

The United Kingdom has completely lifted all of the restrictions on the export of defence products to Turkey that were brought in following Ankara's 2019 offensive on northeast Syria, Turkey’s chief defence industry officer Ismail Demir said on Friday. 

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/uk-turkey-defence-exports-restrictions-lifted
 

Sounds like Finland to me 

Look like the US will have to “contribute” for Turkey’s approval for Sweden’s bid  ;-)

“In response, the U.S. kicked Ankara out of the F-35 program and slapped sanctions on the Turkish defense industry.

After that spat, Turkey began toying with the idea of buying Russian fighter jets and even developing its own program. However, it is also seeking to both upgrade its F-16 fleet and purchase new F-16 planes. The request has been pending for months with the Biden administration and U.S. Congress. “
https://www.politico.eu/article/turkey-nato-sweden-and-finland-membership-tayyip-erdogan/

 

[Vigo]

On 5/6/2022 at 2:31 PM, NorskTiger said:

Nobody can make "unbiased" polls quicker than Western media and the ango internet trolls who know nothing. 

      The Anglo-Americans are simply very stupid people and have (for the most) always been. 

And yet proportionally more of the most important scientific advances in the past 2 centuries  have come from "Anglo- American" nations. For such stupid people, much of the world is willing to go to elaborate  process to make entry, whether it is Arabs and Africans crossing channel, or the millions who try to enter USA  every year.  Why don't these people go to your beloved Russia or China or Egypt?   Making generalizations like you do serves no purpose. 

[Transam]

On 5/19/2022 at 9:28 PM, Rookiescot said:

Because the Russian navy does not want to be patrolling close to the coast because they have mysterious fires occasionally. 

BTW have you now accepted the Moscow was sunk or are you still claiming it was simply a case of poor source of ignition control?

Hang on a mo, he was probably onboard the ship taking notes........