News Forum - UKRAINE UPDATES: Putin ‘misled’; Russia ‘misjudged’ war, Zelensky warns of Donbass regrouping

[EdwardV]

1 hour ago, Noble_Design said:

Can't the Russians just use other currencies to buy dollars? India is buying a lot of cheap oil from Russia so with that Russia can use rupees to convert to dollars or yuan to dollars

Ahh the wonders of capital controls on a currency exchange rate.

Actually India isn't buying that much oil, not in comparison to their total imports or what Russia was selling world wide prior to invading Ukraine. It will be similar to China, who's imports of Russian oil might actually go down in the near future. They will try to buy it, but there are certain distribution and production pitfalls unique to Russia working against large and long term purchases. That is of course as long as they don't get slapped with secondary sanctions somewhere down the line.  

[butterfly]

will Russia shutdown the supply of oil and gas?

that would start to make things interesting for Germany, it would be like reverse sanctions

I guess perfectly acceptable, in this hostile environment

[EdwardV]

1 hour ago, butterfly said:

will Russia shutdown the supply of oil and gas?

that would start to make things interesting for Germany, it would be like reverse sanctions

Maybe but not for the reasons you think. Russia has already demanded all future payments be in rubles. Only to back down when their bluff was called by Germany, UK and others stating they would only pay in Euros or Dollars. Now the ruble demand will apply to the shipment for the following month (maybe hahaha).

However that might not matter as demand for Russian oil has dropped off so much, they are quickly running out of space to store it all (probably another month or two). Once Russia runs out of storage space, they will have to start shutting down the well fields. The kicker is last time they shut off the wells (after the fall of the Soviet Union), it took until just this last December (yes 2021) to get production capacity back to the prior level. Every single connection needs to be check and most of the wells will have to be re-drilled. 

This wouldn't effect the eastern fields that supply China, but then they have different issues.   

[Noble_Design]

7 hours ago, butterfly said:

will Russia shutdown the supply of oil and gas?

that would start to make things interesting for Germany, it would be like reverse sanctions

I guess perfectly acceptable, in this hostile environment

No, so far Putin has indicated that Russia will continue to honor their contract to supply the gas. 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/germany-says-putin-backing-off-202540466.html

Besides if Russia decides to turn off the tap there is no way the EU will be able to source for alternative supplies that quickly, even if they did there won't be enough LNG tankers to ship them there. Additional tankers or pipes take time to build.

Also it will be a disaster for the EU if Russia decides to just abruptly turn off the gas. Germany's inflation is already at a 40 year high:

https://www.ft.com/content/2f2fb7cc-3039-416b-ad22-f42315d0b1d0

Quote

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https://www.ft.com/content/2f2fb7cc-3039-416b-ad22-f42315d0b1d0

German inflation rose to its highest rate for 40 years as European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde warned that Russia’s war in Ukraine was delivering a “supply shock” to the eurozone economy.

[Fester]

5 hours ago, Noble_Design said:

No, so far Putin has indicated that Russia will continue to honor their contract to supply the gas. 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/germany-says-putin-backing-off-202540466.html

Besides if Russia decides to turn off the tap there is no way the EU will be able to source for alternative supplies that quickly, even if they did there won't be enough LNG tankers to ship them there. Additional tankers or pipes take time to build.

Also it will be a disaster for the EU if Russia decides to just abruptly turn off the gas. Germany's inflation is already at a 40 year high:

https://www.ft.com/content/2f2fb7cc-3039-416b-ad22-f42315d0b1d0

 

Similar problem in most countries.

Russia from bad to worse, for example. And this is pre war!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-12/russian-inflation-accelerates-in-january-despite-rate-hikes

https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iSYAtrstxhAg/v0/-1x-1.png

[Cg66]

21 hours ago, tonymoney said:

Strange, you're saying that what is easily verifiable to be a Russian propaganda written product (you can find this exact text and arguments on every state controlled and government funded Russian media) are facts. I don't have preconceptions, and I'm on the media business for 35 years already, but I don't have any purpose on convincing anybody. A quick fact-checking (as you suggest) can help, at least, to disregard those assumptions as serious arguments:

Lie 1 - large-scale attack was being prepared (by Ukraine) on the Russian speaking Donbass region (at the very moment when Russia was gathering 200k troops on the border, wouldn't think on a best time to do this)

Lie 2 - The West had continuously promised not to expand NATO eastward (they don't even care about)

Lie 3 - discovery of 30 US funded bioweapons laboratories on Russia’s border (just a stupid lie)

Lie 4 - A news channel (RT) that gets continuous scrutiny due to being Russian and I have always found to go to great pains to prove its impartiality (Absolute crap, this channel lies all the time and its objective is not to give news but to translate the Kremlin's propaganda)

And so on..., this same text is just repeated over an over in several languages in hundreds media sites around the world from troll accounts funded by the Russian government and picked up by some pro Putin people. This can be easily checked if people just bother to make a few more clicks

All lies are they? 60,000 Ukrainian troops being amassed near the Dombass border? Given that they have been bombarding the area with shells for eight years, I don’t think they were preparing to kiss and make up! .The American undersecretary of state is on camera admitting that the BioLabs were funded by them. The USA funds 300 BioLabs all round the world, $15 million was given to Wuhan, and many of these labs are bordering Russian territory. The aspiration of joining of NATO was written into the Ukrainian constitution in 2019 by Poroshenko. They have also applied to join the European Union four times. All this information is easily sourced. Maybe you should stop watching the BBC?

 

 

 

 

[Rookiescot]

Russia cannot turn off the supply of oil and gas because that is one of the very few sources of hard currencies it has.

[butterfly]

will see, payments in local currency will be due next month, let's hope they turn it off to send a strong message to the EU and Germany in particular for being so naive and not thankful of Russia resources 

Edited April 1, 2022 by butterfly

[Cg66]

On 3/31/2022 at 1:37 PM, Rookiescot said:

No it was not ignored. But the west was not actively involved in it. It was a small incursion of its territory and lets face it the border had not changed after years. Probably the biggest thing regarding the interest of the west was when Russian forces shot down an airliner. Something Czar Putin still denies but the rest of the world knows the truth.

Oh so its now up to Czar Putin do decide where the "red lines" are? The same man who claimed for weeks he was not going to invade the Ukraine?

Please give links as to where NATO had given any such promises.

Please look up the meaning of the word coup. What happened was a corrupt pro Russian President was overthrown by a democratically elected opponent. Now I know democracy is a bad thing for you but hey. Such is life.

And because Russia was sitting in the Crimea that was never going to happen.

Evidence for that? Oh yeah none.

Evidence for that prior to the invasion? Oh yeah none.

Really? You have evidence of US funded bioweapon labs on the Russian borders? Please provide it.

Well yeah of course you do. He could drown a kitten in a bucket of water live on RT and you would totally understand  his actions.

No. The west will adapt. Prices may go up but its something the west can absorb because it has strong economies. Do tell me. How is the Russian economy doing? Ah yeah its on its arse. With no hope of recovery while the sanctions remain in place. 

Who do you think will run out of dollars first? The west or Russian?

Basically your post is simply a long list of Czar Putin propaganda spreading pure lies. 

The upsidedown way that your brain seems to work is astonishing. With regards to the dollar, maybe you should look at today’s financial times and what the International monetary fund are saying about the weakening of the dollar.

 

 

[Rookiescot]

6 minutes ago, Cg66 said:

The upsidedown way that your brain seems to work is astonishing. With regards to the dollar, maybe you should look at today’s financial times and what the International monetary fund are saying about the weakening of the dollar.

Whats the interest rate in the US compared to Russia?

I will wager the USA has a lot more maneuverability in its fiscal policy than the USSR does. 

[EdwardV]

11 minutes ago, Cg66 said:

With regards to the dollar, maybe you should look at today’s financial times and what the International monetary fund are saying about the weakening of the dollar.

Besides the fact I just looked at the Financial Times and didn't see anything about a weakening of the dollar. Regardless the dollar is actually up slightly today against most currencies. 

Dollar edges higher after robust U.S. jobs data | Reuters

That said, doesn't matter. Half the people in the US want a stronger dollar, the other half want a weaker dollar. There are advantages and disadvantages to each side. The daily fluctuations of the dollar don't really matter when you are the reserve currency.

[Cg66]

Financial Times:- "Russia sanctions threaten to erode dominance of American dollar, says IMF"

[EdwardV]

5 minutes ago, Cg66 said:

Financial Times:- "Russia sanctions threaten to erode dominance of American dollar, says IMF"

Ahhh, thanks. I wouldn't pay much attention to what the IMF says, they are an American creation after all. hahaha

Regardless, the US will remain the reserve currency for the foreseeable future.  Mostly because there isn't a currency out there that can replace it. 

[Stardust]

19 hours ago, EdwardV said:

Maybe but not for the reasons you think. Russia has already demanded all future payments be in rubles. Only to back down when their bluff was called by Germany, UK and others stating they would only pay in Euros or Dollars. Now the ruble demand will apply to the shipment for the following month (maybe hahaha).

However that might not matter as demand for Russian oil has dropped off so much, they are quickly running out of space to store it all (probably another month or two). Once Russia runs out of storage space, they will have to start shutting down the well fields. The kicker is last time they shut off the wells (after the fall of the Soviet Union), it took until just this last December (yes 2021) to get production capacity back to the prior level. Every single connection needs to be check and most of the wells will have to be re-drilled. 

This wouldn't effect the eastern fields that supply China, but then they have different issues.   

Then they have to burn all the gas directly because you cannot just close it and open. It is technical not possible. Anyway Europe is already preparing for that 

https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20220401-france-germany-prepare-for-potential-halt-of-russian-gas-imports

[Stardust]

5 minutes ago, Stardust said:

Then they have to burn all the gas directly because you cannot just close it and open. It is technical not possible. Anyway Europe is already preparing for that 

https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20220401-france-germany-prepare-for-potential-halt-of-russian-gas-imports

Or and I forgot to mention they cannot sell it some other countries because therefore you need a pipeline first. So they have to burn it ir close it forever. Therfore people have to understand the technic of boreholes that you cannot just shut them and then open again and also understand the differences to liquid gas that is used for shipping.

[Fester]

2 hours ago, Cg66 said:

The upsidedown way that your brain seems to work is astonishing. With regards to the dollar, maybe you should look at today’s financial times and what the International monetary fund are saying about the weakening of the dollar.

What are they saying? The DXY is at a 10 month high and still rising.