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Russia v Ukraine - How This Is Going To End


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13 minutes ago, Fanta said:

Oh, you mean the CCTV room got blown to bits? Quite possible. I suppose videoing an incoming missile at 1 million mph might be a bit of an ask. Satellite images should be able to identify the impact areas.

It is very difficult to respond to sarcastic remarks. To the best of my knowledge the X22 does not travel at one million MPH. 500 to 1000 would be a more accurate speed imo.

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Where did you get that image from, could you provide a link please.

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7 minutes ago, Marble-eye said:

It is very difficult to respond to sarcastic remarks. To the best of my knowledge the X22 does not travel at one million MPH. 500 to 1000 would be a more accurate speed imo.

Yet you managed to reply. Kudos to you. 1,000,000mph or 500mph is a lot of mph for low fps security cameras to capture. 

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3 minutes ago, Fanta said:

Nice try but no cigar.

"SouthFront (sometimes written South Front) is a multilingual fake news website registered in Russia that "combines Kremlin talking points with detailed knowledge of military systems and ongoing conflicts and attempts to appeal to military enthusiasts, veterans, and conspiracy theorists." According to the European ..."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/SouthFront#:~:text=SouthFront (sometimes written South Front,theorists." According to the European

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11 minutes ago, Marble-eye said:

Nice try but no cigar.

"SouthFront (sometimes written South Front) is a multilingual fake news website registered in Russia that "combines Kremlin talking points with detailed knowledge of military systems and ongoing conflicts and attempts to appeal to military enthusiasts, veterans, and conspiracy theorists." According to the European ..."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/SouthFront#:~:text=SouthFront (sometimes written South Front,theorists." According to the European

So does the BBC reporting “an attack on  a shopping center” as opposed to AlJazeera “A missile struck a shopping center” mean the BBC is also a fake news website?  You asked for the image source. I gave it. Attack the message, not the messenger. 

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57 minutes ago, Fanta said:

So does the BBC reporting “an attack on  a shopping center” as opposed to AlJazeera “A missile struck a shopping center” mean the BBC is also a fake news website?  You asked for the image source. I gave it. Attack the message, not the messenger. 

As far as I know the BBC is accepted on this forum even if they are telling us news that you don't want to hear. Stop using fake websites as your news source just because they are telling you things you do want to hear, in my book that is called desperation. 

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15 hours ago, KRLMRX said:

I didn't say anything, I just asked questions.

In the video from the park, in the moment with a couple of vacationers, it is clearly visible that the blow fell next to the camera to the left of it, that is, on the territory of the plant

if it had been an impact in a shopping center (it is much farther from the camera) we would not have immediately seen the smoke and the cloud rising so high. it seems to me.

I said from the very beginning that it was possible that a rocket hit the shopping center.  

the main thing is that there are no 1000 dead in the shopping center.  Otherwise, we would have already seen their bodies, Zelensky would have personally dealt with the mass mailing.

If you look at the alleged video of the blast at the shopping mall, you will see just how fast the smoke rises. I say "alleged" simply as it was released via Ukrainian sources, although yet to be proved as being manipulated in anyway.

The smoke cloud I refer to in the park video is at the 1:02 minute mark that is clearly at a distance. The size and spreading of the cloud indicates it is well away from the site from where it was filmed. All these considerations are taken into account as were a lot more by people far more qualified to examine these than we are. For example, look at the extent Bellingcat went to in examining it.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2022/06/29/russias-kremenchuk-claims-versus-the-evidence/

Bellingcat use a lot of "open source" material to examine these things at length. Personally, I can't always detect what they do in the satellite photos they source as my eyesight isn't that strong! But they are certainly far more investigative then we are before we offer opinions!

 

 

 

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32 minutes ago, Fanta said:

Yet you managed to reply. Kudos to you. 1,000,000mph or 500mph is a lot of mph for low fps security cameras to capture. 

I'm also left wondering why there is no footage from inside the shopping centre, showing one of two possible scenarios: a fire slowly spreading preceded perhaps by thickening smoke, or an abrupt end to filming. The latter of which would indicate an explosion or direct hit.

Many CCTV cameras upload footage live to the cloud these days, and shopping centres are bristling with CCTV cameras, so you'd expect just one or two clips to emerge that would give more solid evidence of the kind that the Ukranian side is looking for. All we've seen so far is missiles exploding behind bushes, or out of the field of view.

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I do believe part of the problem in getting to a peaceful resolution of this war is simply the level of distrust around. The Russians don't believe anything the Ukrainians say and keep calling them names. (Nazis etc). But the Russians themselves don't endear themselves to a level of trust when they stumble with mixed messages, too often found to be false, over an obvious event like the missile and the mall.

They have given so many different messages over the few days, with many contradicting another. It makes them looks disjointed and simply trying to spin or cover up the truth. Not a good base to build trust from!

The challenge is that the Russian distrustful perception appears a bit self-sustaining , almost as if it is ingrained. Until Leaders can emerge and overcome such a perception, no matter what side they are on, I find it hard to see what the end will be.

To me, the logical one to a ceasefire is a division of the country. (i.e. east and west Ukraine self governing in their own right). But to even get to a point to discuss seems such a challenge at the moment. Let's hope something silly like the type of table doesn't delay negotiations, like the Paris peace talks on Vietnam were so delayed!

"A similar debate concerned the shape of the table to be used at the conference. The North favored a circular table, in which all parties, including NLF representatives, would appear to be "equal"' in importance. The South Vietnamese argued that only a rectangular table was acceptable, for only a rectangle could show two distinct sides to the conflict. "

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Peace_Accords#Early_deadlocks

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Trans has left the thread, can't read any more from the click, good luck....😉

I'm going up the pub wiv Vlad.....😋

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58 minutes ago, Smithydog said:

I do believe part of the problem in getting to a peaceful resolution of this war is simply the level of distrust around. The Russians don't believe anything the Ukrainians say and keep calling them names. (Nazis etc). But the Russians themselves don't endear themselves to a level of trust when they stumble with mixed messages, too often found to be false, over an obvious event like the missile and the mall.

They have given so many different messages over the few days, with many contradicting another. It makes them looks disjointed and simply trying to spin or cover up the truth. Not a good base to build trust from!

The challenge is that the Russian distrustful perception appears a bit self-sustaining , almost as if it is ingrained. Until Leaders can emerge and overcome such a perception, no matter what side they are on, I find it hard to see what the end will be.

To me, the logical one to a ceasefire is a division of the country. (i.e. east and west Ukraine self governing in their own right). But to even get to a point to discuss seems such a challenge at the moment. Let's hope something silly like the type of table doesn't delay negotiations, like the Paris peace talks on Vietnam were so delayed!

"A similar debate concerned the shape of the table to be used at the conference. The North favored a circular table, in which all parties, including NLF representatives, would appear to be "equal"' in importance. The South Vietnamese argued that only a rectangular table was acceptable, for only a rectangle could show two distinct sides to the conflict. "

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Peace_Accords#Early_deadlocks

Distrust is very much a self-sustaining condition that we see examples of everywhere - a cycle that's extremely hard to break out of once communication has broken down. As you say, all we can hope for is that a mutually trusted third party (no America, that's not you) can broker a truce that endures - leading to a peace agreement that would require both parties to eat some humble pie and step back a little. What obviously won't work is expecting that either party will concede total defeat in exchange for peace - there's simply too much to lose.

What I don't see is the West encouraging a truce - all we seem to do is add fuel to the fire by insisting that Ukraine doesn't stop until it achieves an unconditional victory, which isn't going to happen. I really don't understand the Western position at all, and feel sorry for all the innocent Ukrainians caught in the crossfire in what resembles more and more a war between the US and Russia, in which Ukraine is being used as a battering ram by NATO.

Calling each other names is part of warfare. We all do it. Some of the names might have a degree of validity that's been exaggerated. Others less so. Neither side is blameless here.

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19 minutes ago, Transam said:

Trans has left the thread, can't read any more from the click, good luck....😉

I'm going up the pub wiv Vlad.....😋

Your Round I believe Trans I'm out of here too. Provide Evidence from most MSM sites the Putin fans on here will never believe it and take the proverbial tell them it's raining they will tell you it isn't.  Little point trying to convince any of them well done comrades you win.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Smithydog said:

Bellingcat use a lot of "open source" material to examine these things at length.

Bellingcat is funded by (inter alia) the National Endowment for Democracy, which is a largely state-sponsored arm of the United States government. Its  continued funding is dependent on the continued support of the White House and Congress. 

It's hard to find impartial sources of news these days. There's always a money trail. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bellingcat#:~:text=Bellingcat%20has%20received%20grants%20from,CV%20and%20Sigrid%20Rausing%20Trust.

https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2001/06/20010613-8.html

Edited by dbrenn
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38 minutes ago, vlad said:

Your Round I believe Trans I'm out of here too. Provide Evidence from most MSM sites the Putin fans on here will never believe it and take the proverbial tell them it's raining they will tell you it isn't.  Little point trying to convince any of them well done comrades you win.

See you on another thread then, and I enjoyed talking to you. 

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1 hour ago, dbrenn said:

I really don't understand the Western position at all, and feel sorry for all the innocent Ukrainians caught in the crossfire in what resembles more and more a war between the US and Russia, in which Ukraine is being used as a battering ram by NATO.

I would call Ukraine a punching bag as the US’ stated desire is that Russia will exhaust itself militarily and be unable to wage another war. imo, that is as realistic as expecting a Ukrainian victory. Zelenskyy has stated he hopes the war will be over by winter. It may well be but not with the outcome he is hoping for.

 

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Putin puts it to rest, Russian missiles don’t miss and they never fire at civilian sites:

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, speaking to media on Wednesday, denied that Russia was behind a strike on a shopping center in Kremenchuk, in central Ukraine, that left at least 18 dead and dozens missing and wounded.  "The Russian army does not attack any civilian site. We don’t have the need for this. We have every capability to detect specific locations; and thanks to our high-precious long-range weapons we are achieving our goals,” Putin said, at a news conference following a meeting of the "Caspian five" leaders —Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan — in Ashgabat. 

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-29-22/index.html

It’s quotes like this that make Ukraine’s job so much easier. Like I keep saying, makes you wonder if Putin isn’t working for the west. 

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58 minutes ago, Fanta said:

I would call Ukraine a punching bag as the US’ stated desire is that Russia will exhaust itself militarily and be unable to wage another war. imo, that is as realistic as expecting a Ukrainian victory. Zelenskyy has stated he hopes the war will be over by winter. It may well be but not with the outcome he is hoping for.

The US isn’t running this war, Ukraine is.
 

The fact Russia has been forced to limit their front of a single main axis of attack and can only move at a snail’s pace doesn’t scream exhausted to you? How about needing to up the age limit for combat volunteers? Or up the age limit to join the army period? How about needing to use T-62 tanks or ancient missiles designed to strike carriers in a land war? 62 year old pilots anyone? I could go on but you get the picture. That looks like an army sucking wind if you ask me. Of course I’m not impartial so take it for what it’s worth. 

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Russian politician Leonid Slutsky issued an apparent warning on Wednesday, saying there will be consequences for Turkey agreeing to the admission of Sweden and Finland into NATO.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-warns-consequences-turkey-backing-nato-expansion-finland-sweden-1720449?amp=1

Blowhard. Russia has threaten Poland, each of the Baltic States individually, UK, Finland, Sweden, amazingly Ukraine, America and now Turkey (I’m probably leaving out a few more). Russia can't even handle Ukraine and yet it doesn’t stop them from threatening everyone  else. It’s to the point of being a joke. 

 

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5 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

The US isn’t running this war, Ukraine is.

Uh huh… and I wear the pants in my family. My wife told me so and she’s right. She’s always right. She advises me of what I need to do, when I have to do it, warns me continuously not make the same mistakes again and even gives me some spending money to buy stuff she approves of. Sound familiar?

9 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

The fact Russia has been forced to limit their front of a single main axis of attack and can only move at a snail’s pace doesn’t scream exhausted to you?

You yourself said you doubted the intensity of the conflict can continue for much longer.  That goes both ways. And perhaps you are confusing snail’s pace with methodical grinding? Russia incurred a lot of casualties in the first few months of the war, apparently at an unsustainable rate. We have seen Russia’s commanders and tactics change. Don’t go toe to toe. Just flatten it and then pick through the rubble. I hope Russia is close to punching itself out but does the UAF have the troops and equipment required to counter attack and deliver a decisive blow? Russia is a defensive army and the trickle of weapons into Ukraine means the UAF supply officers probably have the cushiest job in the army at the moment (provided they can ignore the occasional incoming missile and the air raid sirens). The T-62 claims ignore the fact that T-80’s were also seen on the same train. I don’t think Russia is out of T-72’s. Plus any LPR/DPR grunt can drive a T-62 as mobile artillery/a supporting fire platform.

Tanks! that raises the question as to where are the big tank battles? The ground is hard. The sun is shining. It is a glorious time to be trapped in a big metal box.  Will we see Russian tanks attacking the fortified Donbas from the north? 

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8 minutes ago, Fanta said:

The T-62 claims ignore the fact that T-80’s were also seen on the same train.

Video or it didn’t happen! 

 

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3 hours ago, dbrenn said:

Bellingcat is funded by (inter alia) the National Endowment for Democracy, which is a largely state-sponsored arm of the United States government. Its  continued funding is dependent on the continued support of the White House and Congress. 

It's hard to find impartial sources of news these days. There's always a money trail. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bellingcat#:~:text=Bellingcat%20has%20received%20grants%20from,CV%20and%20Sigrid%20Rausing%20Trust.

https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2001/06/20010613-8.html

So are you arguing their analysis is false? After all, every analysis is funded by someone including the Russian ones. 

I prefer to look at what is produced and see if the remarks follow the facts and don't overstate anything they don't offer evidence for. This seems to present facts, supports it and not overstate it.

I also note your wikipedia link states:

"According to the i newspaper, Bellingcat is notable for its transparency, as Bellingcat investigative reports describe "how they found out the story and which techniques they used"

and

"Bellingcat publishes the findings of both professional and citizen journalist investigations into war zones, human rights abuses, and the criminal underworld. The site's contributors also publish guides to their techniques, as well as case studies."

The Russians have been trying to smear Bellingcat ever since MH17 was shot down. So what you are saying is not new. But their articles have a remarkable amount of supported sources available for all to see. Where are the others doing this be they Russian or Western?

But then they are also sponsored by the "Dutch Postcode Lottery". Obviously a noted hotbed of anti-Russian propaganda! 

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4 hours ago, dbrenn said:

Distrust is very much a self-sustaining condition that we see examples of everywhere - a cycle that's extremely hard to break out of once communication has broken down. As you say, all we can hope for is that a mutually trusted third party (no America, that's not you) can broker a truce that endures - leading to a peace agreement that would require both parties to eat some humble pie and step back a little. What obviously won't work is expecting that either party will concede total defeat in exchange for peace - there's simply too much to lose.

What I don't see is the West encouraging a truce - all we seem to do is add fuel to the fire by insisting that Ukraine doesn't stop until it achieves an unconditional victory, which isn't going to happen. I really don't understand the Western position at all, and feel sorry for all the innocent Ukrainians caught in the crossfire in what resembles more and more a war between the US and Russia, in which Ukraine is being used as a battering ram by NATO.

Calling each other names is part of warfare. We all do it. Some of the names might have a degree of validity that's been exaggerated. Others less so. Neither side is blameless here.

"What I don't see is the West encouraging a truce"

What and Russia is encouraging one by their missiles hitting civilian targets. The west don't have troops on the ground. The western nations could support and pressure Ukraine to call a truce. But Ukraine would have to decide that.

Russia on the other hand could call a truce right now if they wanted to! They keep claiming how powerful they are, yet cannot stop a war that is not even on their territory. They could hold in place and state they will advance no further, hit no other external targets outside of the territory they occupy, and only respond when attacked. They could call on the Ukrainian forces to do the same and match them.

All this they could do right now without any western involvement whatsoever.

But no. Blaming the western nations seems to be the only thing they can do as Putin is not interested in any truce. He wants the territory to satisfy his ego and countless more will die because of his ego.

By the way, calling each other names is a choice people make. There is no, absolutely zero requirement for people to have to do it. You stop it by making a choice not to.

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Smithydog said:

So are you arguing their analysis is false? After all, every analysis is funded by someone including the Russian ones. 

I prefer to look at what is produced and see if the remarks follow the facts and don't overstate anything they don't offer evidence for. This seems to present facts, supports it and not overstate it.

I also note your wikipedia link states:

"According to the i newspaper, Bellingcat is notable for its transparency, as Bellingcat investigative reports describe "how they found out the story and which techniques they used"

and

"Bellingcat publishes the findings of both professional and citizen journalist investigations into war zones, human rights abuses, and the criminal underworld. The site's contributors also publish guides to their techniques, as well as case studies."

The Russians have been trying to smear Bellingcat ever since MH17 was shot down. So what you are saying is not new. But their articles have a remarkable amount of supported sources available for all to see. Where are the others doing this be they Russian or Western?

But then they are also sponsored by the "Dutch Postcode Lottery". Obviously a noted hotbed of anti-Russian propaganda! 

All I'm saying is that Bellingcat is funded by the US government, and is therefore not the home enthusiast investigative outfit that it's presented as being, regardless of what Wikipedia might say. Such an organisation is unlikely to be impartial, as is the case with Russian goverment funded organisations like RT and Sputnik that are vilified by the West as unreliable.

Did you look at my second link? He who pays the piper, calls the tune.

Edited by dbrenn
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1 hour ago, Fanta said:

Video or it didn’t happen! 

10 T 80's and 21 T 62's.

Czar Putin and his thugs are through the barrel and scraping concrete. 

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