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Russia v Ukraine - How This Is Going To End


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48 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

Yeah because you can believe assurances given by Czar Putin 😂

No-one needs to trust anyone. All it requires is either military alliance to take action when a country breaks the agreement. Ukraine is protected on both sides from both sides and also from anyone else. 

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38 minutes ago, dbrenn said:

That's a good analogy. All NATO has done this far is say "go on, hit him, we've got your back" to Ukraine, only to cower on on the sidelines when the fight starts.

NATO is an anachronism anyway - it should have been disbanded along with the Warsaw Pact when the USSR broke up. NATO is a solution looking for a problem. Once a highly conservative organisation focussed on maintaining the status quo, it's morphed into a liberal globo-cop, projecting the US into places it doesn't understand and where it has no business, picking fights with all and sundry.  

Every Word …. False. Textbook Russian Propaganda.  NATO role unchanged since formation. Guard Free Europe against Russian Menace. Nato is Defensive. It does not “ cower” , “ project US” or (directly) “pick fights”. 😉it WILL react with Force to any threat on Free Europe. Serbia, Libya, Afghan.

It does also prior Attack Enemies asymmetrically though …. count on it. Using Intelligence Strategy Politics Economics. Ukraine a Prime Example of that…..Lured in Putin but good ….😎

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3 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

Every Word …. False. Textbook Russian Propaganda.  NATO role unchanged since formation. Guard Free Europe against Russian Menace. Nato is Defensive. It does not “ cower” , “ project US” or (directly) “pick fights”. 😉it WILL react with Force to any threat on Free Europe. Serbia, Libya, Afghan.

It does also prior Attack Enemies asymmetrically though …. count on it. Using Intelligence Strategy Politics Economics. Ukraine a Prime Example of that…..Lured in Putin but good ….😎

I'd love to sit and have a beer with you one day buddy. Enjoy the rest of your day.

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9 hours ago, Marble-eye said:

But out of interest why do you indulge in mocking Zelensky and not Putin?

Putin is a sinister tyrant, but he's clever, plays the long game, and runs rings around our idiot politicians. See? I can criticise all of them. 

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15 minutes ago, dbrenn said:

Putin is a sinister tyrant, but he's clever, plays the long game, and runs rings around our idiot politicians. See? I can criticise all of them. 

You needed prompting! 

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4 hours ago, Fanta said:

NATO & CSTO agree to provide security guarantees to protect Ukraine from all countries and each other. That is neutrality with security guarantees. Ukraine remains as an independent neutral buffer state between Europe and Russia. Ukraine can still join the EU as it is an economic alliance not a military alliance. 

That’s a security guarantee that’s not secure. It’s another Budapest memorandum at best. NATO has proven you need two things to have a true security agreement, troops on the ground and an article 5 trigger. Ukraine would never agree to what you propose as they have already done it with the current results. 
 

Can’t see Russia agreeing to this either. One of the underlying issues with a western aligned Ukraine is the very good chance they are successful. For lack of a better term, Ukraine is a mini me of Russia. One with slightly better demographics, farmland, natural resources, education and population health. If they can be successful, people in Russia are going to wonder what is holding back them. 
 

What about southern Ukraine? Russia isn’t going to want to give it back, and Ukraine needs it to succeed. Rock meet hard place. 

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6 hours ago, Fanta said:

Really? $USD100 millions is virtual peanuts.

“Russia has the money to make a $100m (£81.4m) payment and is willing to pay, but sanctions made it impossible to get the sum to international creditors. 

The $100m interest payment was due on 27 May. Russia says the money was sent to Euroclear, a bank which would then distribute the payment to investors.

But that payment has been stuck there, according to Bloomberg News, and creditors have not received it.”

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61929926

Russia makes that amount every three hours from EU payments🤣

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1 hour ago, oldschooler said:

Russia makes that amount every three hours from EU payments🤣

Yeah but if the transactions can only go one way because of sanctions how long do you think that will last?

The EU has already stepped up imports from other sources. It will take a while but it will work. 

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13 hours ago, Marble-eye said:

Putin is scraping the barrel now, after losing many of his high ranking Generals he has now called up Major General Pavel, now he must have one hell of a military brain because I wouldn't have thought that he could advance or retreat very fast for that matter, unless loaded into a 2 ton dumper.

"Pavel is a veteran of Russia's calamitous war in Afghanistan.

A senior intelligence source last night told the newspaper's Sunday edition: “Putin is now scraping the barrel.

“Most of his best and battle-hardened senior commanders have been killed or injured fighting in Ukraine so he is resorting to sending second rate officers to the front who don’t last very long."

j1kbzgyviz391.thumb.jpg.652253bc923cdb43dca0a0dcc0907eb2.jpg

this would be funny if it was a humorous article, but this is Mirror, not Punch.

The verbal turnover "general Pavel" is not possible in relation to the Russian subject. Just like in English-speaking culture, as I understand it.

In Russia, there cannot be General Pavel, since Pavel is the first name, and the general (like any other profession and position) is always called by the last name or the first name and last name together. For example, General Grachev (last name) or General Pavel (first name) Grachev.

due to such a total disregard for, at least somewhat, a superficial study of the topic on which you are trying to write articles, leads to a total distrust of everything that the Western media publishes on the part of Russian readers.

It's not difficult to google and understand that "General Pavel" may be a Czech, but not a Russian general.

here it looks like the truth. strange, but there is no general Pavel

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-shoigu-visits-troops-ukraine-ministry-2022-06-26/

And by the way, the war in Afghanistan was catastrophic for NATO, I have not seen a more shameful flight of the military before.

And the USSR left behind a secular Afghan state, with women's rights and a developing economy.

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14 hours ago, Fanta said:

This is a discussion sharing opinions not a Wikipedia page reading recital. Maybe you should refrain from commenting instead of going off on a tangent from air defense to Western supplied weapons? 

 To summarize your post - some of  the supplied weapons are reaching their overhaul date, their ammo is almost gone, new weapons that match the capabilities of the deployed Russian weapons are slowly arriving and still will not be appearing in sufficient quantities to replace the UAF’s  losses to date while capitalism is restricting the supply of replacement ammunition. Otherwise known as SNAFU <—— Was that the point of your post?

The point is that you are suggesting the  arms and munitions are being destroyed before they reach the Ukrainians in the field. I used Howitzer to illustrate that the equipment is used  as soon as available and is used heavily to such an extent that it is being worn out and that more  munitions are needed.  Canada would not be sending emergency supply of new barrels if minimum 2500 firings per barrel not reached.  None of the information was from wikipedia. The  delivery of Norway and Canada additional items is from only a few days ago.

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3 hours ago, Fanta said:

No-one needs to trust anyone. All it requires is either military alliance to take action when a country breaks the agreement. Ukraine is protected on both sides from both sides and also from anyone else. 

The Ukraine had those assurances years ago from Czar Putin. How did that end up?

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13 hours ago, Fanta said:

This is one of the things I do not understand about these weapon supplies. Why does Ukraine and crew feel the need to announce every weapon request, donation and the estimated delivery date? I’d keep it a secret if I needed/wanted another zillion suicide drones and let the Russians figure it out for themselves when they are under attack by swarms of drones.

The budget is approved so just get on with it, buy all the stuff asap, deploy it and go back for more money.

because this is the first media war. and since it is something new, some have no experience in using its tools.

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The Putin Butcher launched a missile into a shopping mall in Kremenchuk central Ukraine where a thousand people were inside.  Boris Johnson has said it's a barbaric attack on defenceless civilians going about their business of shopping. How the hell are the Putin fans on here going to defend this ???

 

 

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3 hours ago, Fanta said:

No-one needs to trust anyone. All it requires is either military alliance to take action when a country breaks the agreement. Ukraine is protected on both sides from both sides and also from anyone else. 

Wouldn’t at a minimum you need to trust the alliance will take action if attacked? 
 

You aren’t going to get a one way guaranteed of military action, that’s why the Budapest memorandum failed so spectacularly. You need a binding military self defense treaty. Unfortunately that is exactly what Russia doesn’t want, it would mean Ukraine isn’t neutral. The real problem with trying to create a neutral Ukraine is there are Russian troops in the country. To head down this rabbit hole, Russian troops first have to leave otherwise there is no incentive for Ukraine to play along. 

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1 hour ago, KRLMRX said:

fortunately for everyone, most likely this is another attempt by propagandists to launch a war crime media projectile.  as with Bucha, there were not 1,000 civilians there.  It is reported that 100 meters from the mall there is a road machinery repair plant that repairs military equipment.

In what way is that fortunate for anyone? What if it’s not an “attempt” at whatever you seem to be implying? 
 

Open-source Twitter account GeoConfirmed stated that the strikes targeted the general vicinity of the Artem State Joint-Stock Holding Company, a manufacturer of air-to-air missiles, automated air-guided missile training and maintenance systems, anti-tank guided missiles, and aircraft equipment.[4] GeoConfirmed noted that Russian forces likely fired the missiles from the maximum possible range, which would have interfered with GPS and radar correlation and resulted in the strike hitting civilian infrastructure

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-26

That appears in the very least to be a country that doesn’t care about civilian casualties. Of course it’s been that way for the entire war so why change now right?

 

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3 hours ago, EdwardV said:

Wouldn’t at a minimum you need to trust the alliance will take action if attacked? 
 

You aren’t going to get a one way guaranteed of military action, that’s why the Budapest memorandum failed so spectacularly. You need a binding military self defense treaty. Unfortunately that is exactly what Russia doesn’t want, it would mean Ukraine isn’t neutral. The real problem with trying to create a neutral Ukraine is there are Russian troops in the country. To head down this rabbit hole, Russian troops first have to leave otherwise there is no incentive for Ukraine to play along. 

My reply that you didn’t need to trust anyone was in response that Putin cannot be trusted. I, perhaps naively, assumed NATO could be trusted to fulfill it’s promises. Oops….  
Partition the country, sign the papers and start living again. Or Ukraine can keep fighting a war that it seems it cannot win. 

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1 hour ago, EdwardV said:

In what way is that fortunate for anyone? What if it’s not an “attempt” at whatever you seem to be implying? 
 

Open-source Twitter account GeoConfirmed stated that the strikes targeted the general vicinity of the Artem State Joint-Stock Holding Company, a manufacturer of air-to-air missiles, automated air-guided missile training and maintenance systems, anti-tank guided missiles, and aircraft equipment.[4] GeoConfirmed noted that Russian forces likely fired the missiles from the maximum possible range, which would have interfered with GPS and radar correlation and resulted in the strike hitting civilian infrastructure

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-26

That appears in the very least to be a country that doesn’t care about civilian casualties. Of course it’s been that way for the entire war so why change now right?

He is saying that the West are claiming this was a deliberate targeting of civilians when it was not. Even AlJazeera, who are reasonably neutral, are running with that angle. Perhaps they are unaware of the equipment repair facility down the road. Ukraine are understandably milking it for all it is worth. “Missile strike targeting repair facility hits shopping center” is more accurate but not as outrageous as “Eleven killed in Russian missile strike on Ukraine shopping mall” 
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/27/10-killed-from-russian-missile-strike-on-ukrainian-shopping-mall

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1 hour ago, Fanta said:

I, perhaps naively, assumed NATO could be trusted to fulfill it’s promises. Oops….

You mean like Russia could be thrusted to fulfill its promises in the Budapest memorandum? Let’s put it this way, there is a reason article 5 exists for NATO. 
 

 

1 hour ago, Fanta said:

Partition the country, sign the papers and start living again. Or Ukraine can keep fighting a war that it seems it cannot win. 

Yes right up to the point Russia attacks again. Putin and Russia can’t be trusted remember? Never mind Russia isn’t stopping ….

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7 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

Yes right up to the point Russia attacks again. Putin and Russia can’t be trusted remember? Never mind Russia isn’t stopping ….

So your solution is perpetual war or crushing Russia? 

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9 minutes ago, Fanta said:

So your solution is perpetual war or crushing Russia? 

No, my solution is for Russia to realize they can’t conquer Ukraine and leave. Baring that the next best is to render the Russian army combat ineffective. Perpetual war? Can’t happen. Neither side has enough weapons or the replacements capacity to do that (especially Russia). Since you asked. 

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We now have proof that Russia is singling out civilians, the Mall attack.

I would like to hear from the 3/4 Russian supporters HERE, their thoughts on their leader committing such an atrocity....?

Go for it......🥴

 

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4 hours ago, Fanta said:

He is saying that the West are claiming this was a deliberate targeting of civilians when it was not. Even AlJazeera, who are reasonably neutral, are running with that angle. Perhaps they are unaware of the equipment repair facility down the road. Ukraine are understandably milking it for all it is worth. “Missile strike targeting repair facility hits shopping center” is more accurate but not as outrageous as “Eleven killed in Russian missile strike on Ukraine shopping mall” 
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/27/10-killed-from-russian-missile-strike-on-ukrainian-shopping-mall

Factual outcome of civilian missile strike is rightly reported. rather than unknown intent speculation then interpreted as pro- russia apologist propaganda😉

western media utterly uninterested in making excuses for aggressor Russia civilian strikes nor do their readers want to hear about possible similar victim ukraine strikes. 😎

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9 hours ago, vlad said:

The Putin Butcher launched a missile into a shopping mall in Kremenchuk central Ukraine where a thousand people were inside.  Boris Johnson has said it's a barbaric attack on defenceless civilians going about their business of shopping. How the hell are the Putin fans on here going to defend this ???

They will say the Russian  “intent” was to strike the machinery repair facility 100 meters away. 😒
 

Probably true, even though the odds on hitting that with a single inaccurate missile at extreme range etc around 5-10% perhaps. 😞and media naturally interested  only with outcome not intent speculation, nor Russian aplogism.
 

Probably uneconomic to launch the ten missiles necessary for 100% strike guarantee. 😠
 

Wouldn’t care much about negative publicity of resultant extra civilian casualties.

Dual strike purpose of course is civilian terror / movement. 😩

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9 hours ago, KRLMRX said:

because this is the first media war. and since it is something new, some have no experience in using its tools.

First Media war/victory was Vietnam.😎😉

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12 hours ago, Marble-eye said:

You needed prompting! 

Well at least I find fault with both sides, rather than cheering on one although it were a football team.

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