Russia v Ukraine - How This Is Going To End

[EdwardV]

5 hours ago, Fanta said:

Here’s a plan! Roll back some of Russia & Belarus’ sanctions and Russia’s 18% of the world’s global wheat exports will be shipped (over twice as much as Ukraine exports at 7%). And Russian and Belarusian exports of fertilizer will again flow.

You do realize none of those things are sanctioned right? Never mind you are changing the subject. Russia mining, destroying and blocking Ukraine wheat exports. 

[Rookiescot]

4 hours ago, Fanta said:

A Participation Award and a reduction in your daily dose of hopium is more like it. You are showing signs of reality intolerance. 

Thats it? Thats what you have got? The Ukraine is losing territory but Russia is losing the war. Anyone with half a brain can see that.

Tomorrow no doubt you will be creaming all over these boards about how Russia has finally taken its objectives. Objectives which have changed at least three times since the invasion began and got smaller with every failed one.

The Ukrainians are NOT going to stop just because your hero Czar Putin finally achieved something he can disguise as a victory. And lets face it. All he has got is cities and towns his own thugs destroyed. 

It does not stop here. There will be no appeasement. There is no peace deal while Czar Putins thugs remain on Ukrainian soil. 

Sweden and Finland joining NATO. The Ukraine joining the EU. The Baltic sea now a NATO pond.

But of course its all about Czar Putin and his thugs finally, after weeks of trying, capturing a single town in the Ukraine. Get with the script. That town does not matter.

[Fanta]

5 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

You do realize none of those things are sanctioned right? Never mind you are changing the subject. Russia mining, destroying and blocking Ukraine wheat exports. 

You do realize that sanctions interfere with the sale and transport of Russian grain & fertilizer, right? But that’s not the part of the subject/bigger picture that you want to discuss.  Fine. We discussed who mined the sea weeks ago. Ukrainian infrastructure getting blown up. deliberate or not, is no surprise. So we are back to who is blocking the exports. Boris Johnson has all the answers. 
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/exclusive-boris-johnson-signals-uks-willingness-demine-help-export-grain-ukraine-2022-06-23/

[Rookiescot]

6 minutes ago, Fanta said:

You do realize that sanctions interfere with the sale and transport of Russian grain & fertilizer, right? But that’s not the part of the subject/bigger picture that you want to discuss.  Fine. We discussed who mined the sea weeks ago. Ukrainian infrastructure getting blown up. deliberate or not, is no surprise. So we are back to who is blocking the exports. Boris Johnson has all the answers. 
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/exclusive-boris-johnson-signals-uks-willingness-demine-help-export-grain-ukraine-2022-06-23/

So you were wrong about who placed the mines and now you are apoplectic about the west offering to remove them.

Its all going wrong aint it Fanta.

 

[EdwardV]

5 minutes ago, Fanta said:

You do realize that sanctions interfere with the sale and transport of Russian grain & fertilizer, right? But that’s not the part of the subject/bigger picture that you want to discuss.  Fine. We discussed who mined the sea weeks ago. Ukrainian infrastructure getting blown up. deliberate or not, is no surprise. So we are back to who is blocking the exports.

I don’t see how, doesn’t seem to stop Russia from transporting oil does it? Ships are sailing out of Russian Black Sea and Baltic ports. No one is stopping the shipments of Russian grain and fertilizer. Just Ukrainian. 
 

Yes we did and you were (still are?) convinced Russia didn’t sow mines. Seems that might not be correct. Regardless it now seems they are doing just that. As I said makes sense. If one of your main objectives is the eradication of the Ukraine as a functioning nation (along with all other things Ukrainian), one of the first things you do is stop grain exports. Russia will never allow Ukrainian grain exports. It might happen, but not because Russia allows it. 

[Fanta]

7 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

Thats it? Thats what you have got? The Ukraine is losing territory but Russia is losing the war. Anyone with half a brain can see that.

Tomorrow no doubt you will be creaming all over these boards about how Russia has finally taken its objectives. Objectives which have changed at least three times since the invasion began and got smaller with every failed one.

The Ukrainians are NOT going to stop just because your hero Czar Putin finally achieved something he can disguise as a victory. And lets face it. All he has got is cities and towns his own thugs destroyed. 

It does not stop here. There will be no appeasement. There is no peace deal while Czar Putins thugs remain on Ukrainian soil. 

Sweden and Finland joining NATO. The Ukraine joining the EU. The Baltic sea now a NATO pond.

But of course its all about Czar Putin and his thugs finally, after weeks of trying, capturing a single town in the Ukraine. Get with the script. That town does not matter.

That’s your longest post yet and you sound upset. Severdonetsk is not the first city in Ukraine with a pre war population of 100,000+ to fall. Settle petal. Chin up. Stiff upper lip. Lysychansk hasn’t fallen, The Donbass region hasn’t fallen. Hopefully the war stops if that happens. Ukraine hasn’t lost the war. Long way to go. Calm down. 

[Rookiescot]

3 minutes ago, Fanta said:

That’s your longest post yet and you sound upset. Severdonetsk is not the first city in Ukraine with a pre war population of 100,000+ to fall. Settle petal. Chin up. Stiff upper lip. Lysychansk hasn’t fallen, The Donbass region hasn’t fallen. Hopefully the war stops if that happens. Ukraine hasn’t lost the war. Long way to go. Calm down. 

If you think thats my longest post then you have not been paying attention.

You know it. I know it. This pathetic Russian invasion has done nothing but embarrass Czar Putin. A world power? More like a third world country still fighting the first world war. Because thats all its got.

There will be no end to the war if the Donbas is taken. I have been telling you this for weeks. Somehow you cling to this as if its a turning point. It is not and never will be.

[astro]

18 hours ago, Transam said:

For me, yes, for the Comrades here, no................

...and, the point for you would be?

What debate is inspired by "Boom." for you?

Edited June 24 by astro

[EdwardV]

22 hours ago, Fanta said:

They will be Russia’s priority #1 target before they even reach the battlefield

The official said there is no evidence Russia has been successful in intercepting any of what has been a steady flow of military aid into Ukraine from the U.S. and other nations. Russia has repeatedly threatened to strike, or actually claimed to have hit, such shipments.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-politics-donetsk-0537bf3613c45dc9aec283752ccf9ca6

Got to be very hard to hit weapon shipments in transit. Russia isn’t flying missions past the front lines, and have no presence in the interior of Ukraine for accurate targeting information. I guess you could hit a stockpile but I doubt you would get much for no other reason Ukraine doesn’t get enough to stockpile. 

[EdwardV]

Russia's air force is struggling to support Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine because of combat losses, the U.K. Ministry of Defence said Friday. In its daily intelligence update, the ministry said Russia is being forced to deploy retired pilots to operate warplanes because of high casualty numbers. Russia has moved to using retired personnel who are now working as contractors for Wagner, a Russian private military company, to conduct close air support missions, the ministry said.

Russia's failure to consistently deliver air power is likely one of the most important factors behind the Kremlin's "very limited campaign success" in the conflict, which began 120 days ago, the ministry's Monday update said. Putin's air force has so far operated in a "risk [averse] style," meaning it has rarely penetrated deep behind Ukrainian lines and has not been able so far to "gain full air superiority," the ministry said.

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-air-campaign-struggling-ukraine-war-combat-losses-uk-1718828?amp=1
 

Helps explain why Russia has failed to achieve air superiority and refuse to fly missions into the interior of Ukraine. 

[Fanta]

1 hour ago, EdwardV said:

Got to be very hard to hit weapon shipments in transit

In transit. - definitely. In equipment depots, training areas, deployment areas - not that difficult if you know or suspect where they are. Compared to expenditure the supplied weapons are a trickle and insufficient to replace Ukraine’s losses or needs according to Denys Sharapov, Ukraine’s deputy minister of the defense in charge of procurement, support for weapons and equipment, and Brig. Gen. Volodymyr Karpenko, land forces command logistics commander,

“As of today, we have approximately 30 to 40, sometimes up to 50 percent of losses of equipment as a result of active combat. So, we have lost approximately 50 percent. … Approximately 1,300 infantry fighting vehicles have been lost, 400 tanks, 700 artillery systems.”

https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2022/6/15/ukraine-to-us-defense-industry-we-need-long-range-precision-weapons 

[Fanta]

45 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

In its daily intelligence update, the ministry said Russia is being forced to deploy retired pilots to operate warplanes because of high casualty numbers

So Russia didn’t have enough trained pilots to fly the planes they had already made before the war began? Or they lost the pilots  in combat but not the planes? And Russia has no pilots in training or reserve? Interesting. Russia is flying 300 sorties a day compared to Ukraine’s 5 sorties a day and never entering Ukrainian air spaces while also running low on PGMs? How?  War is a mystery cake with so many questions about the enemy lying unanswered beneath a heavy frosting of wishful thinking.

[vlad]

2 hours ago, astro said:

...and, the point for you would be?

What debate is inspired by "Boom." for you?

" Boom " Russian thugs being sent to Hell can't debate that unless they survived a bomb on there head how would you debate it Astro? knock their helmet off ?

[vlad]

Proof Russia has Air superiority with Video evidence, are they flying over cities and bombing them or are they being shot down?  show us a video of their Air superiority. Don't tell us  show us.

[Fanta]

9 hours ago, EdwardV said:

don’t see how, doesn’t seem to stop Russia from transporting oil does it? Ships are sailing out of Russian Black Sea and Baltic ports. No one is stopping the shipments of Russian grain and fertilizer. Just Ukrainian

Sanctions affect insurability, insurance rates, equipment supplies to maintain facilities needed to export goods etc etc plus a general fear of breaking sanctions by non Russian companies involved with the sale and transportation of Russian goods and grain.  All these sanctions seem to be currently doing to Russia in inconveniencing them until they find alternate arrangements. Can’t use SWIFT or credit cards? Use China CBPS & Union Pay. Can’t get paid in US dollars? Get paid in rubles. Can’t get paid? Don’t ship it.  Sales of energy to Europe impacted? Sell it to another country. And the list goes on before we talk about the impact sanctions are having on the countries that proposed and enforce  them. 

Russia’s monthly income from Jan to May exceeded their expenditure and they still have $USD300 billion or so on hand after half their bank balance was “frozen”. At this stage the Western sanctions seem like an own goal. By the time they start to mature so as to effect Russia their impact will largely be mitigated by alternate arrangements. Russia has the best central bank manager in the world according to yourself. She will think of something. Can the West? 

https://www.csis.org/analysis/strangling-bear-sanctions-russia-after-four-months

[Fanta]

8 hours ago, Rookiescot said:

If you think thats my longest post then you have not been paying attention.

You know it. I know it. This pathetic Russian invasion has done nothing but embarrass Czar Putin. A world power? More like a third world country still fighting the first world war. Because thats all its got.

There will be no end to the war if the Donbas is taken. I have been telling you this for weeks. Somehow you cling to this as if its a turning point. It is not and never will be.

I suggest you read this opinion piece on the obstacles and risk involved for Ukraine of winning this war. 
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/06/russia-may-win-the-war-in-ukraine/

Here’s an alternate opinion that summarizes the conflict to date with an opinion of Ukraine’s chances of victory. Different author. 
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/06/russian-tactics-artillery-ukraine/

and here is an Al Jazeera piece extolling Ukraine’s past glories while quoting former Ukrainian defence ministers downtalking the loss of Sieverdonetsk. On the bright side the civilians can now be evacuated to safety. 
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/24/what-does-russias-capture-of-severodonetsk-mean-for-ukraine

Just a reminder that a few weeks ago Zelenskky said the fate of Severdonetsk will decide the fate of the whole Donbass region. Guess that must have changed since the UAF retreated from Severdonetsk. 

[EdwardV]

40 minutes ago, Fanta said:

In equipment depots, training areas, deployment areas - not that difficult if you know or suspect where they are.

I would think there are few depots of size since most everything goes right to the front (as its needed right?). Training areas are in Poland. Deployment areas, absolutely. Of course the entire point was the claim Russia is hitting units in transit. 

 

46 minutes ago, Fanta said:

insufficient to replace Ukraine’s losses or needs according to Denys Sharapov, Ukraine’s deputy minister of the defense in charge of procurement,

Do you really expect him to say anything different? His job is to get more … period. Not saying they don’t have need, just you have to adjust according to the source. 

 

37 minutes ago, Fanta said:

So Russia didn’t have enough trained pilots to fly the planes they had already made before the war began?

That’s not so hard to imagine, even the US has issues with lack of pilots. As for the 300 sorties. Not saying that’s incorrect but it might be old? I haven’t seen that number mentioned but with such short flights it’s not unreasonable to think a single pilot might do two or three in a day. US pilots would sometimes do multiple sorties in Afghanistan and Iraq. 

[EdwardV]

10 minutes ago, Fanta said:

She will think of something.

She did, she wanted to quit. She’s also quite clear the hurt will start to bite in the 3rd and 4th quarter. Not quite there yet. 

[Fanta]

This is not how you handle or treat POWs. Clips such as these make me confident that no captured volunteers will ever be executed. These guys are more useful to Russia & crew as living propaganda rather than dead victims 

I like the last guys final sentence which I choose to believe defiantly means “We are doing something right”. 

[EdwardV]

The Kremlin said Friday it hopes that Ukraine and Moldova’s already strained ties with Moscow will not be worsened by the countries' new status as candidates for European Union membership.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/24/kremlin-warns-against-problems-with-ukraine-moldova-eu-candidacy-a78097

It would almost be funny if it wasn’t so tone deaf. Exactly how does he think relations between Russian and Ukraine could get worse? 

[Fanta]

39 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

would think there are few depots of size since most everything goes right to the front (as its needed right?). Training areas are in Poland. Deployment areas, absolutely. Of course the entire point was the claim Russia is hitting units in transit

Deployed piecemeal? I guess so. Wouldn’t units shooting and scooting always be in transit? 

41 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

Do you really expect him to say anything different? His job is to get more … period. Not saying they don’t have need, just you have to adjust according to the source. 

I said the same thing a few weeks back. Exaggerate losses to increase shipments. If lack of weapons is all that is stopping Ukraine from winning this war than the weapons suppliers are doing a good job of losing this war. Maybe they are not being totally upfront about quantities and deliveries and are actually building a big stockpile of weapons outside Ukraine for deployment? 

46 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

That’s not so hard to imagine, even the US has issues with lack of pilots.

I think the US issue was so many targets to hit and not enough planes and pilots to do it fast enough for their liking.

[Fanta]

9 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

It would almost be funny if it wasn’t so tone deaf. Exactly how does he think relations between Russian and Ukraine could get worse? 

I think the Kremlin still follows the “Beatings will continue until morale improves!” philosophy. 

[EdwardV]

6 minutes ago, Fanta said:

Deployed piecemeal? I guess so. Wouldn’t units shooting and scooting always be in transit? 

Hahaha I guess you could look at it that way. We were talking about equipment being interdicted on the way to the front. Still they have to stop somewhere sometime. 
 

 

10 minutes ago, Fanta said:

I said the same thing a few weeks back. Exaggerate losses to increase shipments.

The US armed services routinely lose most of their war games for the same reason. If you can’t claim need, you won’t get as much. 
 

[Transam]

5 hours ago, astro said:

...and, the point for you would be?

What debate is inspired by "Boom." for you?

None of your business, you crack on chap.....

[Rookiescot]

2 hours ago, Fanta said:

I suggest you read this opinion piece on the obstacles and risk involved for Ukraine of winning this war. 
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/06/russia-may-win-the-war-in-ukraine/

Here’s an alternate opinion that summarizes the conflict to date with an opinion of Ukraine’s chances of victory. Different author. 
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/06/russian-tactics-artillery-ukraine/

and here is an Al Jazeera piece extolling Ukraine’s past glories while quoting former Ukrainian defence ministers downtalking the loss of Sieverdonetsk. On the bright side the civilians can now be evacuated to safety. 
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/24/what-does-russias-capture-of-severodonetsk-mean-for-ukraine

Just a reminder that a few weeks ago Zelenskky said the fate of Severdonetsk will decide the fate of the whole Donbass region. Guess that must have changed since the UAF retreated from Severdonetsk. 

Why would the fall of Severdonetsk change ANYTHING? Strategically its insignificant. The only person it matters to is Czar Putin. People talked about the devastating results if Mariupol fell. Guess what. It didnt matter. You put way too much store in crackpot sites. Start thinking for yourself.