Russia v Ukraine - How This Is Going To End

[snapdragon]

On 4/23/2022 at 4:45 PM, Fanta said:

2 months later. I am almost sticking to my original post on this. Russia will take and occupy the 2 disputed regions, declare all the captured territory independent or annexed, stop there and offer to get serious about the peace talks. Zelenskky will then have a choice of either accepting a negotiated peace or face a long war. Either way Zelenskyy might even win an election again ;-) 

Generally agree with you on this.

IMO the aim now is to deny Ukraine access to the Black Sea. This will make them land-locked and not nearly so appetising to NATO. If Turkey sticks to its guns on not allowing ships or subs to pass by their territory, the west will be shut out.

I think the big test is when Zelenski announces that the war cannot be won without NATO getting actively involved.  That could be very soon and the penny will suddenly drop - on the real state of things - around the western world. I don't think for one minute that Zelenski is in charge; so that rules out negotiations; until/unless the US gives the thumbs up for him to participate.

IMO, the war will be over either next month (May) or shortly after.

[Rookiescot]

12 minutes ago, snapdragon said:

Generally agree with you on this.

IMO the aim now is to deny Ukraine access to the Black Sea. This will make them land-locked and not nearly so appetising to NATO. If Turkey sticks to its guns on not allowing ships or subs to pass by their territory, the west will be shut out.

I think the big test is when Zelenski announces that the war cannot be won without NATO getting actively involved.  That could be very soon and the penny will suddenly drop - on the real state of things - around the western world. I don't think for one minute that Zelenski is in charge; so that rules out negotiations; until/unless the US gives the thumbs up for him to participate.

IMO, the war will be over either next month (May) or shortly after.

The war will be over when Czar Putins thugs totally collapse. The Ukraine is now being supplied with heavy weapons. You need those to go on the offensive. It is not short of motivation or manpower. It has also, somewhat mysteriously, been supplied with a lot of "new" aircraft.

So expect that as these build up and the Russian army blunts itself against the Ukraine's defensive lines taking huge damage from all those anti tank missiles and drones the west has supplied the lines are going to move. Slowly at first granted. It will then turn into a grind before becoming a rout. 

The question is where will the Ukrainians stop? I suspect the Crimea may not be Russian for much longer. 

[snapdragon]

11 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

The war will be over when Czar Putins thugs totally collapse. The Ukraine is now being supplied with heavy weapons. You need those to go on the offensive. It is not short of motivation or manpower. It has also, somewhat mysteriously, been supplied with a lot of "new" aircraft.

So expect that as these build up and the Russian army blunts itself against the Ukraine's defensive lines taking huge damage from all those anti tank missiles and drones the west has supplied the lines are going to move. Slowly at first granted. It will then turn into a grind before becoming a rout. 

The question is where will the Ukrainians stop? I suspect the Crimea may not be Russian for much longer. 

Don't agree with your assessment on this Mr R.

If I were to watch the BBC or CNN, and I didn't have an inquiring mind, I could be fooled into thinking the same as you.

Th Ukraine army is splintered. As we type, some 40,000 Ukraine troops are trapped, with nowhere to run to, in eastern Ukraine. Kiev is not a Russian target, but the Russian speaking regions are. That's where the support for Russia is in Ukraine; in the Russian speaking areas.

[Rookiescot]

4 minutes ago, snapdragon said:

Don't agree with your assessment on this Mr R.

If I were to watch the BBC or CNN, and I didn't have an inquiring mind, I could be fooled into thinking the same as you.

Th Ukraine army is splintered. As we type, some 40,000 Ukraine troops are trapped, with nowhere to run to, in eastern Ukraine. Kiev is not a Russian target, but the Russian speaking regions are. That's where the support for Russia is in Ukraine; in the Russian speaking areas.

I have not heard that 40000 Ukrainian troops are trapped. 

Got a link for that?

[snapdragon]

Just now, Rookiescot said:

I have not heard that 40000 Ukrainian troops are trapped. 

Got a link for that?

These are the troops that were amassed, ready to invade the Donbas; but Mr P got first strike in.

They are pincered, cut off and short on supplies.

Scott Ritter - ex-CIA military anaylist - www.thisweek.org.uk

[Mudshark]

40 minutes ago, snapdragon said:

www.thisweek.org.uk

Not that I trust MSM, but why would I trust non MSM media like this?! 

[Rookiescot]

56 minutes ago, snapdragon said:

These are the troops that were amassed, ready to invade the Donbas; but Mr P got first strike in.

They are pincered, cut off and short on supplies.

Scott Ritter - ex-CIA military anaylist - www.thisweek.org.uk

Not sure he is aware of all the facts and seems to have had what you could call a "colourful" history.

[snapdragon]

2 minutes ago, Mudshark said:

Not that I trust MSM, but why would I trust non MSM media like this?! 

Good question. I'll answer as accurately as I can.

Over the years Tony Gosling has done sterling work delving into stuff that we take for granted. His guests include some people very much in the know. And of course, if you know sensitive things, and promote a view that differs from the MSM; not only can't it be broadcast and then one is quickly rubbished and deplatformed.

Martin Summers (also a weekly guest on Tony's show) liver and worked in Eastern Europe, and has retained invaluable sources; especially in this Ukraine - Russia conflict.

[snapdragon]

12 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

Not sure he is aware of all the facts and seems to have had what you could call a "colourful" history.

Scott Ritter has his finger very much on the pulse in all this. He is, after all, a military strategist and should be taken very seriously. For me; Mr R's work is only a part of the jig-saw.

However, I have my own views, formulated from the vast amount of information, and history out there.

[Rookiescot]

7 minutes ago, snapdragon said:

Has his finger very much on the pulse in all this.

But! I have my own views that I have formulated from the vast amount of information, and history out there.

So perhaps with all that knowledge you could answer a simple question.

Who started the war?

[butterfly]

On 4/22/2022 at 3:04 PM, Guphz said:

As the meme goes:

and what is the point of that silly meme, I mean really? this is quite ridiculous as a response to a serious topics.

[snapdragon]

7 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

So perhaps with all that knowledge you could answer a simple question.

Who started the war?

This thread is about how the war will end. Not how and why it started.

But I'll answer the question. It is obvious why the war started; turn off the TV, and do some historical research.

 

 

[Rookiescot]

2 minutes ago, snapdragon said:

This thread is about how the war will end. Not how and why it started.

It is obvious why the war started; turn off the TV, and do some historical research.

Not sure I am as clever as you Snapdragon so I hoped you could simply give me an answer.

[Rookiescot]

6 minutes ago, butterfly said:

and what is the point of that silly meme, I mean really? this is quite ridiculous as a response to a serious topics.

You? Of all people want to debate with seriousness? 

[birdman]

i just think the Ukraine is waiting for enough weapons so they can attack

and damage the Crimean bridge,that will really either help stop

the war or intensify it.

 

[butterfly]

10 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

You? Of all people want to debate with seriousness? 

I suggest you take a break from reacting on every posts about Ukraine, it has obviously altered your perception of reality 

[butterfly]

7 minutes ago, birdman said:

i just think the Ukraine is waiting for enough weapons so they can attack

and damage the Crimean bridge,that will really either help stop

the war or intensify it.

do they have the right people to operate those new weapons?

or are they all stuck under that factory in Mariupol?

[Rookiescot]

11 minutes ago, butterfly said:

I suggest you take a break from reacting on every posts about Ukraine, it has obviously altered your perception of reality 

I love the smell of insults in the evening.

It smells like victory.

[snapdragon]

1 hour ago, Rookiescot said:

Not sure I am as clever as you Snapdragon so I hoped you could simply give me an answer.

No simple answer. There are a number of contributing factors.

The Ukraine vote in 2014, that didn't suit the US. The US instigated the overthrow of that government later that year.

Germany, and other countries wanting Russian gas. Which would result in the hugely expensive US fracked gas unable to find a market.

Gas finds in the eastern Mediterranean.

The elephant in the room; NATO's expansion. 

The constant shelling of the Donbas by Ukraine battalions; killing over 10,000 Ukrainians. The Ukrainian Government - greatly influenced by the US and the Azov regiments -  wanted the land but not the Russian speakers. The build up of up to 60,000 troops on the borders of the Donbas.

The legislation eliminating the Russian Language.

Then there is the slow death of the Petro Dollar, and the selling of commodities in a currency other than the Dollar US, by naughty countries not willing to toe the line. (See Iraq and Libya for starters).

The closeness - and coziness -  of China, Russia, Pakistan and India particularly is not to US's liking, and not within their long-term strategy.

Gold; the US has none to speak of. What's the importance of that? The Dollar US cannot be backed by any kind of gold or precious metal; unlike prior to 1971. Unlike the Rouble and Yuan.

Ukraine and eastern Russia are extremely wealthy in minerals and naturals. Eastern Ukraine has fantastic soil, and is relied upon for it's annual grain production to feed much of Europe. 

Then the crunch. Pres P got wind of the impending invasion plans and struck first.

Note: The mods have stressed this thread is about the end of the war; not why it started. i suggest starting another topic to stop this one being derailed.

[birdman]

10 hours ago, snapdragon said:

The legislation eliminating the Russian Language.

No such thing,this is wrong information.

The rest of your post i also take with a few grains of salt,i hope this war will end soon so

your President p can get what he has coming.

[snapdragon]

43 minutes ago, birdman said:

your President p can get what he has coming.

He is not my president Mr Birdman. I just like the truth; unlike what is shown on most western MSM.

If the US continue to poke the Bear;  it will eventually respond. As it did.

Make no mistake; this is a US - Russia conflict. Ukraine is being jerked about by the US (disguised as NATO). Why? To hurt Russia and pick Ukraine's pockets? But there are a multitude of reasons why the US would want Russia brought to heel. Not least is that they will not play the game according to US's Petro-dollar rules.

Anyone seen Hunter Biden's laptop?

[Noble_Design]

Is this even real? If it is then shame on the EU:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10745115/France-Germany-sold-230million-military-hardware-including-bombs-missiles-Moscow.html

[Poolie]

21 minutes ago, Noble_Design said:

Is this even real? If it is then shame on the EU:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10745115/France-Germany-sold-230million-military-hardware-including-bombs-missiles-Moscow.html

It's the Daily Nazi, your guess is as good as mine.

[Transam]

13 minutes ago, Poolie said:

It's the Daily Nazi, your guess is as good as mine.

What a stupid comment......

[Fanta]

That must be a pro Putin newspaper because it criticize some NATO countries and has an extremely rare photo of Russian tanks moments before their inevitable destruction. Behold the power of a fair and balanced MSM untainted by propaganda by googling “Ukraine tank losses” or any variant.