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Russia v Ukraine - How This Is Going To End


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1 hour ago, Thaidup said:

Off topic but just a quicky.

Could you imagine the pain if 4th in line is minority leader, and they voted ":HIM" as that.

4th would be the highest Cabinet Member like Sec. of State😌

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10 minutes ago, snapdragon said:

In a war there are things that are not fair. One of these is the unnecessary hurting of civilians.

There has been huge propaganda in the western MSM. Plenty of these 'stories' of atrocities are short on truth.

The lady responsible for much of these 'falsehoods' has recently been dismissed from her post in the Ukraine; Ludymila  (something or other).

To think that only one side can commit crimes against civilians is simply naive. But I stand by my position that the nazi battalions were shelling civilian areas between 2014 and 2022. Causing death, misery and evacuations to Russia.

Boom class A deflection.

 

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1 hour ago, snapdragon said:

You may well be right on NATO's manoeuvring skills. There are many analysts that feel Russia fell into a trap by invading Afghanistan.

IMO, this conflict is essentially about ideals. Systems; if you will. There is the US way, and there is the non-west way. In the west we are fed the diet of 'freedom good' - 'suppression bad'.

The MSM's focus - and it has been that way for many years - is to demonize anything, or any country, that is deemed to be non-US. Challenges to the hegemonic way of the US is simply not tolerated.

So what is the outcome likely to be? In the short term, I think a partition of Ukraine is inevitable. In the long term Ukraine will be continually propped up by the west; not unlike Kosavo. With no access to the Black Sea (landlocked) except with Russian permission, they will become even more under the influence of the US.

World-wide it is looking serious. And the real reason - IMO - is that countries are no longer willing to bend their knee to the US. So! In saying that, I automatically lead towards a world where there are two distinct trading and economic systems.

What about the possibility of a nuclear WW3? Well obviously I hope not; but what are nuclear weapons for? To intimidate, threaten, defend; or something else?

We live in interesting - but worrisome -  times

Best to focus though on clear Geopolitical Reality Now driven by Economics and Alliances  rather than deep dark unevidenced conspiracy theories and guessing unknown future outcomes. 😉😌

Lets avoid trite emotive terms like “ demonize”. Forget the irrelevant  “MSM” here. Dictators, Govts & Institutions decide National Policy & Actions. 

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Remind us who the Wagner group is? and why have they earned a reputation for committing atrocities wherever they have been deployed by the Kremlin. This is a far right group of butchers that sweep in the front or behind the Russian foot soldiers akin to the Nazi Death squads in WW2. The feared Einsatzgruppen. still alive and well, butchering and raping Ukrainian civilians.

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18 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

Best to focus though on clear Geopolitical Reality Now driven by Economics and Alliances  rather than deep dark unevidenced conspiracy theories and guessing unknown future outcomes. 😉😌

Lets avoid trite emotive terms like “ demonize”. Forget the irrelevant  “MSM” here. Dictators, Govts & Institutions decide National Policy & Actions. 

Today as yet, I haven't checked on what is happening on the ground in Ukraine. I reckon things are much the same as yesterday. A day-to-day check on troop movements is somewhat limiting in debating terms.

TBH, I like to hear opinions of posters. Their opinions are well worth listening to, even though I might not agree with them.

Right at the moment I'm listening to Martin Summers on the radio. He has lived in eastern Europe and has a formidable store of knowledge on Ukraine and Russia. BUT! I don't agree with what all he has to say. Don't stop me enjoying his output though.

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1 hour ago, Thaidup said:

Does anyone else think that the attack on Kiev was diversionary? Just looking at the gains Russia made in that South Eastern quarter. And where have all those attacks from the North gone?

Yes, that was one of my first thoughts; not exactly diversionary though.  More of a soft, initial objective, and had it been successful, would have established a more aggressive Line of Demarcation for this overall effort - Dnipro River system being the KISS LoD, on down to the prime coastal/port real estate on Crimea, or thereabouts.  If I was a rich dude with a kick-butt military and armories full of cool things that go Boom, against an inferior pack of grab-a**ing westernized wanna-be snowflakes who'd probably fold like a lawn chair when punched in the face, that's what I would of thought.    

When that didn't work out, considered Putin's (fairly) timely re-deployment of troops out of the North was an indication of that initial objective and mind-set.  Essentially if you can get it, so close to rear area Belarus, awesome.  If not, roger that, don't waste a bunch of time and assets on it, rather, re-deploy and get on with the sensible, primary objectives. 

All of which has nothing to do with "How I think this will end".   Ukrainians, and the rainbow coalition, are, and will be, a major PITA for a long time to come.  Afghanistan x 10 in every way.   Going to take more time for the various gears to start grinding down on Russia, but they will, and the rest will be history, Part Deux.

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8 minutes ago, TWS60 said:

Yes, that was one of my first thoughts; not exactly diversionary though.  More of a soft, initial objective, and had it been successful, would have established a more aggressive Line of Demarcation for this overall effort - Dnipro River system being the KISS LoD, on down to the prime coastal/port real estate on Crimea, or thereabouts.  If I was a rich dude with a kick-butt military and armories full of cool things that go Boom, against an inferior pack of grab-a**ing westernized wanna-be snowflakes who'd probably fold like a lawn chair when punched in the face, that's what I would of thought.    

When that didn't work out, considered Putin's (fairly) timely re-deployment of troops out of the North was an indication of that initial objective and mind-set.  Essentially if you can get it, so close to rear area Belarus, awesome.  If not, roger that, don't waste a bunch of time and assets on it, rather, re-deploy and get on with the sensible, primary objectives. 

All of which has nothing to do with "How I think this will end".   Ukrainians, and the rainbow coalition, are, and will be, a major PITA for a long time to come.  Afghanistan x 10 in every way.   Going to take more time for the various gears to start grinding down on Russia, but they will, and the rest will be history, Part Deux.

Could you explain this post to most of us who don't understand what your saying like LoD or PITA, a**ing, is this Russian ?

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14 minutes ago, vlad said:

Could you explain this post to most of us who don't understand what your saying like LoD or PITA, a**ing, is this Russian ?

LoD, indicated previously in long form.  Line of Demarcation.  In my example, a new, organic, gluten-free, proverbial Berlin Wall. 

Pain in the arse, which provides a hint for the last one with the asterisks** - mid-to-late 20th Century blue collar military jargon in Murica.  Nancy Boys might be a rough equivalent.

 

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1 hour ago, snapdragon said:

Today as yet, I haven't checked on what is happening on the ground in Ukraine. I reckon things are much the same as yesterday. A day-to-day check on troop movements is somewhat limiting in debating terms.

TBH, I like to hear opinions of posters. Their opinions are well worth listening to, even though I might not agree with them.

Right at the moment I'm listening to Martin Summers on the radio. He has lived in eastern Europe and has a formidable store of knowledge on Ukraine and Russia. BUT! I don't agree with what all he has to say. Don't stop me enjoying his output though.

I listen ONLY to expert military institute analysts on Sky & CNN explaining by battle maps. Re. Background Geopolitics I view ONLY expert history professors You Tube presentations. 

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2 hours ago, snapdragon said:

TBH, I like to hear opinions of posters. Their opinions are well worth listening to, even though I might not agree with them.

Right at the moment I'm listening to Martin Summers on the radio. He has lived in eastern Europe and has a formidable store of knowledge on Ukraine and Russia. BUT! I don't agree with what all he has to say. Don't stop me enjoying his output though.

Kudos Snaps and I agree. I enjoy reading the contributions made by members (and news outlets) I don’t agree with. An echo chamber of the same recycled opinions is very boring indeed. 

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3 hours ago, oldschooler said:

And Clearly exclusively Russia stealing & blockading Wheat in Ukraine starting to cause Hunger in Africa & Price Increases elsewhere.

I think we are beginning to see who is now  “weaponising” the grain shortages. 
Ukraine previously claimed not to have mined the sea. Now they are refusing to remove the same sea mines for fear of Russian ships attacking. Really? Turkey has offered to provide naval escorts for transport ships. Russia has opened a shipping corridor. All Ukraine has to do it clear the mines but refuses to.  

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/8/turkey-russia-discuss-efforts-to-restart-ukrainian-grain-exports

 

 

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2 hours ago, vlad said:

Boom class A deflection.

any Ukrainian shelling then was of occupied seized lands presumably full only of pro- Russian traitor collaborators regarded as enemy combatants if still there rather than evacuated out to Ukraine & Russia.
 

What was Ukraine supposed to do ? Leave on the free water & electricity and bombard them with cakes? To encourage more Russians to move into the stolen free real estate ? I Think Not.😩😉😌

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9 minutes ago, Fanta said:

I think we are beginning to see who is now  “weaponising” the grain shortages. 
Ukraine previously claimed not to have mined the sea. Now they are refusing to remove the same sea mines for fear of Russian ships attacking. Really? Turkey has offered to provide naval escorts for transport ships. Russia has opened a shipping corridor. All Ukraine has to do it clear the mines but refuses to.  

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/8/turkey-russia-discuss-efforts-to-restart-ukrainian-grain-exports

The Russians appear to be able to move the grain they stole via ships.

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17 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

ny Ukrainian shelling then was of occupied seized lands presumably full only of pro- Russian traitor collaborators regarded as enemy combatants if still there rather than evacuated out to Ukraine & Russia.

So they went from being oppressed Ukrainian civilians to pro-Russian traitor collaborators regarded as enemy combatants because of where they live? And if they refused to uproot their families, abandon their livelihood and leave with next to nothing to move into an uncertain future  then they clearly deserve to live in the dark, parched with thirst and all the artillery shells they can eat. You cannot be serious. 

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2 minutes ago, Fanta said:

I think we are beginning to see who is now  “weaponising” the grain shortages. 
Ukraine previously claimed not to have mined the sea. Now they are refusing to remove the same sea mines for fear of Russian ships attacking. Really? Turkey has offered to provide naval escorts for transport ships. Russia has opened a shipping corridor. All Ukraine has to do it clear the mines but refuses to.  

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/8/turkey-russia-discuss-efforts-to-restart-ukrainian-grain-exports

Hmmm …. I Think Not. Most Interesting Read though….

IWHY didn’t the Russian UN Ambassador come prepared to explain that to the UN Council instead of just storming out wordlessly when this very subject was discussed with UN Food Chief blaming only Russia. 

Nothing either from other Russian sources, except Lavbrush blaming Ukraine lack of port de- mining. 

Will be bankrupting the entire Ukraine  Private Wheat business too …. and would simply deliver wheat right into the waiting hands of Russian Pirates ( as stated by Ukraine). 

Turks would need to escort & guarantee those shipments from port to port. They are Not. 😩😌

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

The Russians appear to be able to move the grain they stole via ships.

Because the Russians de-mined the ports under their control. It now appears to be only the mines in and near the Odesa ports stopping the grain shipments, not the Russian Navy. The mines that Ukraine refuses to remove for fear of incursion by Russian ships. The mines Ukraine claims to not have laid. 

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4 minutes ago, Fanta said:

So they went from being oppressed Ukrainian civilians to pro-Russian traitor collaborators regarded as enemy combatants because of where they live? And if they refused to uproot their families, abandon their livelihood and leave with next to nothing to move into an uncertain future  then they are clearly deserve to live in the dark, parched with thirst and all the artillery shells they can eat. You cannot be serious. 

They failed to speak out as a region to challenge & reject the coming Russian invasion and did not join Ukrainian Army in prior armed resistance cells.

Allowing a few Russian Agitators to shout them down no doubt. They then failed to give up their “things” and save LIVES by evacuating their families from post- invasion counter- strike danger.  

Well then yes those silent collaborator remainers putting their families at risk can “eat” the inevitable consequences of Russian Occupation. Misery & Death & Disease unfortunately. 😩😞
 

Many DID evacuate to welcoming Mother Russia; why not ALL ? Perhaps they were not considered Loyal enough so made to stay put as hostage cannon fodder?
 

That was never going to stop the counter- shelling was it ? which would have been under Direct Zelensky Order not Azov initiative. 

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It would appear the Czar Putin apologists have become desperate and are now regurgitating the same nonsense which was debunked months ago.

The attack on Kyiv was in no way a faint or diversion but an organized attempt to seize the capitol and install a puppet regime. It failed big time. Utter humiliation for Czar Putin and his forces. Farmers dragging off Russian equipment because it had been abandoned as the thugs ran away.

OK onto Kharkiv. Again yet another fiasco by Czar Putins thugs. Now being driven back at great expense of Russian manpower and equipment.

Fantastic claims by the Czar Putin fanboys that Russia would take the entire Black sea coast. Yeah what happened there? Now being driven back from Kherson and a large force of Czar Putins thugs face encirclement. The Ukrainians are not going to stop there either. They will keep heading towards the Crimea.

So Czar Putin has a last throw of the dice. Gather together whatever scraps of his ragtag band of thugs and make a huge drive west to Severodonetsk. Again stopped cold in its tracks. 

This is what is really going on.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 10 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

I should also add Czar Putin apologists constantly trying to deflect this thread onto the validity of the MSM and talk about Nazis in the Ukraine have also been debunked at some length in other threads. Take your Russian propaganda nonsense somewhere else.

 

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12 minutes ago, Fanta said:

Because the Russians de-mined the ports under their control. It now appears to be only the mines in and near the Odesa ports stopping the grain shipments, not the Russian Navy. The mines that Ukraine refuses to remove for fear of incursion by Russian ships. The mines Ukraine claims to not have laid. 

I notice you slid right over the fact the grain is stolen 😄

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1 hour ago, TWS60 said:

LoD, indicated previously in long form.  Line of Demarcation.  In my example, a new, organic, gluten-free, proverbial Berlin Wall. 

Pain in the arse, which provides a hint for the last one with the asterisks** - mid-to-late 20th Century blue collar military jargon in Murica.  Nancy Boys might be a rough equivalent.

Nope still don't understand you.

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58 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

IWHY didn’t the Russian UN Ambassador come prepared to explain that to the UN Council instead of just storming out wordlessly when this very subject was discussed with UN Food Chief blaming only Russia. 

He was having a bad hair day? Or he didn’t want to listen to yet another condemnation that offered no focus on providing a solution. He was in a hostile environment so you get what you get. I can understand but not justify the actions of either party. 

Michel accused Russian forces of stealing grain from areas in Ukraine that it has occupied “while shifting the blame of others,” calling this “cowardly” and “propaganda, pure and simple”

58 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

Will be bankrupting the entire Ukraine

An exaggeration. Ukraine is transporting grain via rail albeit at 20-30% of original capacity at an undoubtedly higher cost.

58 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

Private Wheat business too …. and would simply deliver wheat right into the waiting hands of Russian Pirates ( as stated by Ukraine). 

International transport ships loaded with grain already purchased by other countries would not be molested. Turkey only needs to escort out of the Black Sea not baby sit port to port. 

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29 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

It would appear the Czar Putin apologists have become desperate and are now regurgitating the same nonsense which was debunked months ago.

The attack on Kyiv was in no way a faint or diversion but an organized attempt to seize the capitol and install a puppet regime. It failed big time. Utter humiliation for Czar Putin and his forces. Farmers dragging off Russian equipment because it had been abandoned as the thugs ran away.

OK onto Kharkiv. Again yet another fiasco by Czar Putins thugs. Now being driven back at great expense of Russian manpower and equipment.

Fantastic claims by the Czar Putin fanboys that Russia would take the entire Black sea coast. Yeah what happened there? Now being driven back from Kherson and a large force of Czar Putins thugs face encirclement. The Ukrainians are not going to stop there either. They will keep heading towards the Crimea.

So Czar Putin has a last throw of the dice. Gather together whatever scraps of his ragtag band of thugs and make a huge drive west to Severodonetsk. Again stopped cold in its tracks. 

This is what is really going on.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 10 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

I should also add Czar Putin apologists constantly trying to deflect this thread onto the validity of the MSM and talk about Nazis in the Ukraine have also been debunked at some length in other threads. Take your Russian propaganda nonsense somewhere else.

Mention Wagner group and watch the whataboutism from the appeasement gang on here, they will not accept video or links so why bother providing links.

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28 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

Many DID evacuate to welcoming Mother Russia; why not ALL

Be serious, man. Not everyone is pro Russian in the disputed regions and some people regardless of affiliation just won’t move. Look at all the civilians that refuse to move from cities that are directly in the path of an upcoming artillery barrage. Dismissing civilians with a “They deserve it because of their own inaction”  is being as compassionate as a Russian artillery gunner.

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34 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

I notice you slid right over the fact the grain is stolen 😄

In one Rookie you want Evidence of thieving, lets see them explain this one away.

 

 

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6 hours ago, Thaidup said:

Does anyone else think that the attack on Kiev was diversionary? Just looking at the gains Russia made in that South Eastern quarter. And where have all those attacks from the North gone?

The difference has a lot to do with geography. The north has more towns, and forests good for ambushes. It’s also muddy that time of year restricting movement to roads also good for ambushing. The south is more open and dryer. That said the idea the Russians would commit the majority of their troops and best units to a diversion is absurd. To then use those troops in a manner which got thousands of them killed and hundreds of vehicles destroyed for no permanent territorial gains should get someone a 9mm headache. The point being either it wasn’t a diversion or the Russian leadership is as dumb as a bag of rocks. You pick. 

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