Russia v Ukraine - How This Is Going To End

[oldschooler]

9 hours ago, Thaidup said:

There are a few points oldschooler that need to be put into perspective, And i have recieved the criticism already for pointing these out, Back in 2014 the US instigated an orange revolution in Ukraine via the like of George Sorros and Victoria Nulan.

Unproven Conspiracy Theory actually.

Spouted by pro-Russian mouthpieces.

But so what if they did ?

Only Mirroring Russian regime- change tactics. Removal of the false Putin Puppet President who was elected based on lies that he was pro- western. Orange Revolution had massive popular support of vast majority, since validated by two subsequent presidential elections returning pro- western Presidents. 

[KaptainRob]

Off-topic posts removed.  Please note the subject is russia-v-ukraine-how-this-is-going-to-end

 

[snapdragon]

3 hours ago, oldschooler said:

”What is NATO for?” ; seriously ? 
To Defend Civilization against existential threat of barbaric Russia.

It was 'barbaric Ukraine' bombing civilians, egged on by the US, that started this conflict IMO.

The US has over 500 military bases around the world. Why?

Russia poses no threat to peaceful countries.

[Transam]

32 minutes ago, snapdragon said:

It was 'barbaric Ukraine' bombing civilians, egged on by the US, that started this conflict IMO.

The US has over 500 military bases around the world. Why?

Russia poses no threat to peaceful countries.

"Why", could it be that they were asked.......

[BigHewer]

How is this going to end? Who knows? But it’s all a stinking pile of Russian crap. Why did the war start? NATO provocation? No. Nazis in Ukraine? No. Liberation of Russian-speaking people? No.

The post-Covid recovery and the roaring twenties MK II is the reason. Russia cannot keep up and now (then) is the time for action. Russia’s role in geo-politics is that of spoiler. Spoil, spoil, spoil. Stop economic advancement in adversarial nations. Because they can’t compete. Massive infrastructure challenges, terminal demographics, alcoholism, neighborhood envy. Post-Covid recovery, Russia would sell natural resources and watch the astronomical growth economically of liberal democracies and the increasing westernization of neighbors. 

When I was in Moscow in 2003, Estonia was a cool place to travel to because it was modern and hip; by 2019 every western border was the same.

So nice one Vladimir Putin. Stocks are down and there is much uncertainty in the global economy. But whether you win or lose this war, there is nothing more certain in geo-economics than the US stock market and we will win. I’ll have to work one more year than planned because of your war but okay.

So how will it end? A massive spike in the Dow when it’s all over and economic oblivion for Russia.

[Fanta]

49 minutes ago, BigHewer said:

The post-Covid recovery and the roaring twenties MK II is the reason. Russia cannot keep up and now (then) is the time for action. Russia’s role in geo-politics is that of spoiler. Spoil, spoil, spoil. Stop economic advancement in adversarial nations

So Russia is just jealous and lashing out at the world - are you serious? Did you ever consider that this 96 day old war is a convenient scapegoat for the economic troubles caused by matters totally unrelated to this war? Russia’s actions in Ukraine suck but trying to blame that for this economic mess that has been brewing for years is short sighted at best. 

[oldschooler]

2 hours ago, snapdragon said:

It was 'barbaric Ukraine' bombing civilians, egged on by the US, that started this conflict IMO.

The US has over 500 military bases around the world. Why?

Russia poses no threat to peaceful countries.

….  Unless one day they feel “ threatened” or need to “ liberate” Russians outside their borders or decide again that “hostile” words constitute “ aggression” justifying invasion, etc. 

so yes let me complete that last sentence for you: “ Russia pose no threat to peaceful countries ….. belonging to NATO or who openly ally with Russia or are of no interest to a belligerent expansionist Russia”. 

There we are much better & realistic now.

[BigHewer]

15 minutes ago, Fanta said:

So Russia is just jealous and lashing out at the world - are you serious?

Yep.

[NorskTiger]

How is it going to end? This is my impression from what I hear.  One can already see a taste of how the "end" will be with a Russian win. Mauriopol port is already starting to be operational. Thousands of technicians and specialists are involved in reconstruction and rejuvenation of areas behind the frontline as it is pushed westwards. 

    It is likely Russia will be able to keep low-key military presence in these areas and rather "risk" indiscriminate attacks upon civillian structures, which would hamper the ability of Ukraine to create a rightous resolve. 

      

11 hours ago, BigHewer said:

How is this going to end? Who knows? But it’s all a stinking pile of Russian crap. Why did the war start? NATO provocation? No. Nazis in Ukraine? No. Liberation of Russian-speaking people? No.

The post-Covid recovery and the roaring twenties MK II is the reason. Russia cannot keep up and now (then) is the time for action. Russia’s role in geo-politics is that of spoiler. Spoil, spoil, spoil. Stop economic advancement in adversarial nations. Because they can’t compete. Massive infrastructure challenges, terminal demographics, alcoholism, neighborhood envy. Post-Covid recovery, Russia would sell natural resources and watch the astronomical growth economically of liberal democracies and the increasing westernization of neighbors. 

When I was in Moscow in 2003, Estonia was a cool place to travel to because it was modern and hip; by 2019 every western border was the same.

So nice one Vladimir Putin. Stocks are down and there is much uncertainty in the global economy. But whether you win or lose this war, there is nothing more certain in geo-economics than the US stock market and we will win. I’ll have to work one more year than planned because of your war but okay.

So how will it end? A massive spike in the Dow when it’s all over and economic oblivion for Russia.

Oh my.....

  Someone seems very invested in the FIAT world, indeed. The fed pumping of WS is on the ropes. Maybe you are wealthy and can skim off the rest, but I think Pitch forks and ropes may be more on the long investment portfolio over there than blue chips these days. 

     Can you sustain the US stock market with a continued drop in the dollar share? After all, this is what this conflict ultimately is most about, IMHO. 

[Smithydog]

Personally, a partition of Ukraine would seem the most likely result. If that is a "win" for Russia and Putin, let us consider what would then happen.

Ukraine with international help, will rebuild the damaged parts of their partition. Their defence forces will be battle hardened for any future conflict and likely have more modern equipment to support them. 

Russia has to then contend with an area that has suffered incredible infrastructure damage, the most of any part of Ukraine,  and act as an occupying force. They will have to then likely extensively support the costs of rebuilding infrastructure themselves.

They have said they will be paying compensation to the families of Russian soldiers who lost their lives (something they seem to already trying to negate the effect of by listing them as missing and not dead).

Then they have to fund and replace all of their military hardware lost. Obviously, if they didn't feel secure with far more hardware than they have now, it is unlikely they would feel secure with less.

On top of that,

• A likely increased and stronger NATO (wasn't it a goal to stop NATO expansion), including, if Norway is accepted, an extra 1,340 kms of shared border.
• Likely less European reliance on their exported fuel and gas exports as countries speed up plans to move way from it.
• Increased shipping costs to export gas and oil as their existing pipelines to Europe won't be needed anything like they were if Europe cuts their need of supply, or at least added costs to ship to replacement areas they have no pipelines to.
• Restrictions on their sportspeople, something which I understand is a major source of national pride.
• Possibly continuing further sanctions from countries as penalties for their invasion.
• Ridicule and lack of trust in anything they say in international forums.

And for what. The greed of one man, his ego and the "threats" he makes up along with a desire to return to a Russian Empire or sorts. He is living in the past and trying to drag Russia back with him, just to satisfy his ego, whilst accumulating vast wealth amingst himself and his corrupt friends.

https://thefederal.com/international/vladimir-putins-wealth-1-4bn-mansion-700-cars-58-aircraft-mega-yacht-and-more/

https://cepa.org/putin-is-determined-to-rebuild-the-russian-empire/

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_22_1511

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3479187-russian-army-files-most-of-its-kias-as-missing-not-to-pay-families-compensation.html

https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/wireStory/russia-excluded-skating-sporting-sanctions-increase-83174351

https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/05/putins-war-backfires-finland-sweden-seek-join-nato

I wonder why other countries aren't trying to get the same sort of "win".

[Fanta]

19 minutes ago, Smithydog said:

Restrictions on their sportspeople, something which I understand is a major source of national pride. 

Possibly continuing further sanctions from countries as penalties for their invasion

I agree with everything except the 2 above.  

Targeting sports people (who have a limited career life) because of their government’s actions is just spiteful and isolating. Even Wimbledon got slapped on the wrist for their stance on sanctioning Russian tennis players and, imo, rightly so.

Here is an opinion piece that argues that the sanctions are just political grandstanding to minimal effect. 
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/30/eu-forget-sanctions-russia-ukraine-food-energy-prices

btw: I wonder if you will be labelled an appeaser, apologist or rewarder of Putin’s aggression… 

[Transam]

46 minutes ago, Fanta said:

I agree with everything except the 2 above.  

Targeting sports people (who have a limited career life) because of their government’s actions is just spiteful and isolating. Even Wimbledon got slapped on the wrist for their stance on sanctioning Russian tennis players and, imo, rightly so.

Here is an opinion piece that argues that the sanctions are just political grandstanding to minimal effect. 
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/30/eu-forget-sanctions-russia-ukraine-food-energy-prices

btw: I wonder if you will be labelled an appeaser, apologist or rewarder of Putin’s aggression… 

Then those Russian sports folk should sit back and look at the piles of Ukraine dead whom themselves may have had sporting aspirations, eh...

Your Russia has now forced itself back many decades, I hope the world does not forget it, and the Russian leadership pay dearly, but sadly, it's the ordinary Russian Joe that will pay for it, whilst those in control, polish their laid up boats....

[EdwardV]

1 hour ago, Smithydog said:

Personally, a partition of Ukraine would seem the most likely result. If that is a "win" for Russia and Putin, let us consider what would then happen.

You have to ask if that doable for Ukraine? Any partition would be political suicide for the Ukrainian government. Keeping in mind the major NATO members have already committed to not forcing a peace deal upon Ukraine. It’s appeasement at best, it’s betrayal at worse. Personally I don’t think this war ends before the winter, more like next year. There is still a lot of fight left in one of the parties. Just saying. 

[Smithydog]

 

 

 

3 hours ago, Fanta said:

I agree with everything except the 2 above.  

Targeting sports people (who have a limited career life) because of their government’s actions is just spiteful and isolating. Even Wimbledon got slapped on the wrist for their stance on sanctioning Russian tennis players and, imo, rightly so.

Here is an opinion piece that argues that the sanctions are just political grandstanding to minimal effect. 
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/30/eu-forget-sanctions-russia-ukraine-food-energy-prices

btw: I wonder if you will be labelled an appeaser, apologist or rewarder of Putin’s aggression… 

None of the above. Just practical as only other option I see is NATO troop involvement and Putin will take it to the next level then. Let Putin and Russia then fail themselves under what they have created and supported.

The Russians have had the chance to find out the truth, understand it and not be swayed by a madman's ravings. So yes, sportspeople should be banned from competing in International Competition. Why should they be allowed to live privileged lives when so many have suffered, including the families of the dead Russian soldiers.

Similarly, if the Russian people wish to live in a community of nations and benefit from trade etc free from sanctions, then it is simple. Stop their Leaders and Government invading sovereign countries. I have a personal opinion on what should be done with Putin.

I am also sure there are plenty of good people in Russia hurting from this. However, they are best placed to stop Putin. If they choose not to, then they are the apologists, appeasers and rewarders. They are no better than him.

 

 

[NorskTiger]

4 hours ago, Smithydog said:

Personally, a partition of Ukraine would seem the most likely result. If that is a "win" for Russia and Putin, let us consider what would then happen.

Ukraine with international help, will rebuild the damaged parts of their partition. Their defence forces will be battle hardened for any future conflict and likely have more modern equipment to support them. 

Russia has to then contend with an area that has suffered incredible infrastructure damage, the most of any part of Ukraine,  and act as an occupying force. They will have to then likely extensively support the costs of rebuilding infrastructure themselves.

They have said they will be paying compensation to the families of Russian soldiers who lost their lives (something they seem to already trying to negate the effect of by listing them as missing and not dead).

Then they have to fund and replace all of their military hardware lost. Obviously, if they didn't feel secure with far more hardware than they have now, it is unlikely they would feel secure with less.

On top of that,

• A likely increased and stronger NATO (wasn't it a goal to stop NATO expansion), including, if Norway is accepted, an extra 1,340 kms of shared border.
• Likely less European reliance on their exported fuel and gas exports as countries speed up plans to move way from it.
• Increased shipping costs to export gas and oil as their existing pipelines to Europe won't be needed anything like they were if Europe cuts their need of supply, or at least added costs to ship to replacement areas they have no pipelines to.
• Restrictions on their sportspeople, something which I understand is a major source of national pride.
• Possibly continuing further sanctions from countries as penalties for their invasion.
• Ridicule and lack of trust in anything they say in international forums.

And for what. The greed of one man, his ego and the "threats" he makes up along with a desire to return to a Russian Empire or sorts. He is living in the past and trying to drag Russia back with him, just to satisfy his ego, whilst accumulating vast wealth amingst himself and his corrupt friends.

https://thefederal.com/international/vladimir-putins-wealth-1-4bn-mansion-700-cars-58-aircraft-mega-yacht-and-more/

https://cepa.org/putin-is-determined-to-rebuild-the-russian-empire/

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_22_1511

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3479187-russian-army-files-most-of-its-kias-as-missing-not-to-pay-families-compensation.html

https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/wireStory/russia-excluded-skating-sporting-sanctions-increase-83174351

https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/05/putins-war-backfires-finland-sweden-seek-join-nato

I wonder why other countries aren't trying to get the same sort of "win".

It will be interesting to see if the West will help to repair the main areas that are hit by the conflict. If this ends with Dniepr as the new boundary, will we see Western resources being used to rebuild area east of River? History of recent suggests this may not happen. How much Western aid was given to rebuild Aleppo afterwards? Have you seen it today?

 Indeed, both Ukraine and Russia will have plenty of battle-hardened units. The question will be who will be a totally broken military, needing a complete rebuild? Ukraine will end up needing lots of aid from Russia after Zelensky is gone. 

   So far, Europe and the West are suffering immensely by the sanctions. Nopt the elite and the rich of course, but for the common man, gas prices, energy prices, food prices and general inflation is making it harder and harder for the West to say the "sanctions are working". Russia, OTOH, are shifting much of it's markets Eastwards and the BRICS nations are pretty much not on board with any sanctions. 

    Boycott of sports people and "ridicule" is already something the West has been doing for more or less the last decade. These measures will only make the EU and the anglos look even more petty. 

   It looks like NATO&EU will have to pay a steep price for Sweden and Finland to join, if it will happen at all. Maybe Erdogan will allow them to join if he can get EU membership.  Otherwise, looks like Norway has been a NATO member since the ineption of NATO. 

 

[NorskTiger]

2 hours ago, Transam said:

Then those Russian sports folk should sit back and look at the piles of Ukraine dead whom themselves may have had sporting aspirations, eh...

Your Russia has now forced itself back many decades, I hope the world does not forget it, and the Russian leadership pay dearly, but sadly, it's the ordinary Russian Joe that will pay for it, whilst those in control, polish their laid up boats....

It is rhetoric like this which leaves Russia with little options. Despite their winning now (and it appears they are winning), the Western anger and bitterness over this ordeal will be costing IT'S people more than the Russian ones. 

     "The World" is a bit larger than EU and the anglos. Outside those, there is little general hunger for shooting off one' own feet to tap Russia in the butt. 

 

[Smithydog]

16 minutes ago, NorskTiger said:

It is rhetoric like this which leaves Russia with little options. Despite their winning now (and it appears they are winning), the Western anger and bitterness over this ordeal will be costing IT'S people more than the Russian ones. 

     "The World" is a bit larger than EU and the anglos. Outside those, there is little general hunger for shooting off one' own feet to tap Russia in the butt. 

The only thing winning in war is ego.

You are misguided if you think the devastation of a country is a win. No one really wins.

Countries are devastated for years afterward, trillions are spent in rebuilding infrastructure and feeding refugees, money that could have been spent in better areas. The sheer upheaval and relocation of people and the subsequent trauma lasts for decades affecting all.

And all for what? The ego of one man, desiring an expanded empire, casting non-existent fears of Neo-Nazism and NATO expansion threatening his country. A country with nuclear weapons and the means to destroy the rest of the world feels threatened?

 

 

[Fanta]

33 minutes ago, NorskTiger said:

It will be interesting to see if the West will help to repair the main areas that are hit by the conflict

NATO would like little more than a powerful anti Russian buffer zone between them and   the Russian Federation. Europe will foot the bill for the civil works and I presume the US will happily fulfill the military needs for a price, be that $ or loyalty.

“The European Commission has approved a plan for the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine.”

https://frontnews.eu/en/news/details/30835 

[Transam]

40 minutes ago, NorskTiger said:

It is rhetoric like this which leaves Russia with little options. Despite their winning now (and it appears they are winning), the Western anger and bitterness over this ordeal will be costing IT'S people more than the Russian ones. 

     "The World" is a bit larger than EU and the anglos. Outside those, there is little general hunger for shooting off one' own feet to tap Russia in the butt. 

There were folk who talked like you in 1939/45 from Norway, even wore the Nazi uniform, so I am not surprised to read your stuff.

You also forget, the West came to your countries aid and saved it from what now is happening in Ukraine.

But hey comrade, your input here does make me smile, just a little.....

[NorskTiger]

My own thoughts about how it is about to end, based on last days. 

The reconstruction of Donbass is ongoing and there is little to no sabotage in this area. The recent car bombing in Mauriopol only affected civillian targets and is nothing but an act of terrorism. The more such actions; the less credibility the Western side will have, when allegations about Russian misconduct happens. 

   It remains unclear HOW big a support Russia has in the areas they claim as liberated, but as a general rule, it is less the more West one goes. 

    Russian military appears to be even mightier than even the Russian high command would have expected. One sign of this is the open all-out battle in the city of Severodonetsk now. A calculation appears to have been made by high command that the broad front advances in East Ukraine are now so effective that there is no longer a strategic need to envelop Severodonetsk. Instead, one can envision Kharkov being under threat of the same if areas south of there are falling under Russian control. 

 

    As the warring ends, I think there will be increased demands upon the West to take part in reconstruction, both in the West and East of Ukraine. One vital thing in this reconstruction is the status of the railway network. Russia will not allow the tracks to be converted into the standard Western gauge and it is likely this will be a major point of contention when peace ensues.  The difference in rail trakcs have been one of the best strategic defense charactieristics of Russia both in WW1 and WW2 and was a major reason for the German failure to take Caucasus in 1942. It is a prime defense charactieristic of Russia since the 1850's.  

   

[NorskTiger]

4 minutes ago, Transam said:

There were folk who talked like you in 1939/45 from Norway, even wore the Nazi uniform, so I am not surprised to read your stuff.

You also forget, the West came to your countries aid and saved it from what now is happening in Ukraine.

But hey comrade, your input here does make me smile, just a little.....

Your ignorance of historical facts is even bigger than your ability to throw petty insults, so I will let you smile and be happy.

   The big picture of yourself is that you have shown to be incredibly ignorantof history and realities and lack the ability to argue based upon facts. Nothng but a cyber bully, IMHO. 

     You implying I am a nazi is of course a big personal insult, but I would only ask you to refrain from such toxic talk and rather follow the TOS on this site. 

    You probably do not know that the ONLY country who militarily liberated parts of Norway during WW2 was.......

    Russia. 

 

[Transam]

2 minutes ago, NorskTiger said:

My own thoughts about how it is about to end, based on last days. 

The reconstruction of Donbass is ongoing and there is little to no sabotage in this area. The recent car bombing in Mauriopol only affected civillian targets and is nothing but an act of terrorism. The more such actions; the less credibility the Western side will have, when allegations about Russian misconduct happens. 

   It remains unclear HOW big a support Russia has in the areas they claim as liberated, but as a general rule, it is less the more West one goes. 

    Russian military appears to be even mightier than even the Russian high command would have expected. One sign of this is the open all-out battle in the city of Severodonetsk now. A calculation appears to have been made by high command that the broad front advances in East Ukraine are now so effective that there is no longer a strategic need to envelop Severodonetsk. Instead, one can envision Kharkov being under threat of the same if areas south of there are falling under Russian control. 

    As the warring ends, I think there will be increased demands upon the West to take part in reconstruction, both in the West and East of Ukraine. One vital thing in this reconstruction is the status of the railway network. Russia will not allow the tracks to be converted into the standard Western gauge and it is likely this will be a major point of contention when peace ensues.  The difference in rail trakcs have been one of the best strategic defense charactieristics of Russia both in WW1 and WW2 and was a major reason for the German failure to take Caucasus in 1942. It is a prime defense charactieristic of Russia since the 1850's.  

Yes, being odd and alone, but hey, now Russia has nooooo problem with Big Mac's and Coca Cola, eh........

[Transam]

2 minutes ago, NorskTiger said:

Your ignorance of historical facts is even bigger than your ability to throw petty insults, so I will let you smile and be happy.

   The big picture of yourself is that you have shown to be incredibly ignorantof history and realities and lack the ability to argue based upon facts. Nothng but a cyber bully, IMHO. 

     You implying I am a nazi is of course a big personal insult, but I would only ask you to refrain from such toxic talk and rather follow the TOS on this site. 

    You probably do not know that the ONLY country who militarily liberated parts of Norway during WW2 was.......

    Russia. 

Were you leading the charge.....?      

Insults, you daily insult the Ukrainian people with your rhetoric here.........

[Smithydog]

Why should Western Nations contribute to any reconstruction in Russian controlled areas, as you seem to suggest. 

Russia wanted the territory and they can fix it on their own including their destruction of the city of Mariupol. What next? Do you want them next to supply ships and offer free transport for the grain the Russians are stealing?

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russian-forces-stealing-grain/31828643.html

 

[Transam]

I must ask NorskTiger if he has made a complaint to his government regarding Norway (a member of NATO) closing its borders with Russia, if not, why not....?