Russia v Ukraine - How This Is Going To End

[oldschooler]

16 hours ago, Fanta said:

In a kangaroo court perhaps but in the real world it can take years of back and forth court cases to achieve an outcome. Proving the alleged financial crimes and enforcing the punishments is the problem, same as war crimes. America & crew might be the self appointed world’s policemen but their jurisdiction stops at certain borders. Confiscating the assets of oligarchs might be good for global brownie points but keeping them is a very different story. Hence the suggestion that oligarchs can buy their way out of it. Settlements without admitting guilt are common in court cases simply because it resolves a matter that would otherwise drag on for years which is in no-one’s best interests. This is all politics anyway as any financial settlement paid by the oligarchs would be a drop in the buckets of money needed for Ukraine. 

Fearing your take might turn out correctly, having today read BBC Online about the (limited) activities of UK Police Klepto K Cell Unit creating “ friction” (legal harassment) re. UK Oligarch Assets. Like, THATS all you got here ( + Sanctions) ?

Civilized Laws should be Waived for those who don’t have or follow them.

Treat Russia now like ISIS. Start taking out these butchers with black ops.  (after somehow removing the nuclear threat). 

[Fanta]

56 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

Putin will annexe Donbass into Russia ensuring his “ victory” & political survival. 

War then drags on indefinitely as Western aid & sanctions continue and new trained troops & heavy western guns enter the conflict.

Russia & Ukraine Generationally Broken Militarily, Socially & Economically. Ukraine shattered Physically. Reparations from Russia ? 

Russia is already “russifying” Kherson in the South by replacing the currency with rubles, issuing Russian passports etc prior to asking to be annexed by Russia.  Other cities will follow the same pattern if you look at the BBC map of Russian controlled territory in Ukraine. I think annexed from Kherson to the Donbas region and Russia will call that a win.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-61338617

War will only drag on until Ukraine agree to peace because history says Russia doesn’t stop because they are taking a licking. Afghanistan excepted.
Reparations? That’s the right thing to do so that’s a nyet. 

[oldschooler]

7 minutes ago, Fanta said:

Russia is already “russifying” Kherson in the South by replacing the currency with rubles, issuing Russian passports etc prior to asking to be annexed by Russia.  Other cities will follow the same pattern if you look at the BBC map of Russian controlled territory in Ukraine. I think annexed from Kherson to the Donbas region and Russia will call that a win.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-61338617

War will only drag on until Ukraine agree to peace because history says Russia doesn’t stop because they are taking a licking. Afghanistan excepted.
Reparations? That’s the right thing to do so that’s a nyet. 

800,000 Russian passports given to “ pro- Russian “ Ukrainians already ( BBC Article). Suppose you have to be Ethnic Russian / Russian Speaking/ swear Loyaly Oath to Russia AND Hand Over your Ukrainian Passport. (Can always say it’s Lost later and get another ?).

Education & Society also being Russified ) including yes Currency / Banking). Clear signs of impending “ referendum” and illegal “ annexation”.

 

[EdwardV]

2 hours ago, Fanta said:

Russia is already “russifying” Kherson in the South

Russia will be lucky to hold on to Kherson and are preparing for the inevitable. The problem is it’s on the wrong side of the river. 

 

2 hours ago, Fanta said:

War will only drag on until Ukraine agree to peace because history says Russia doesn’t stop because they are taking a licking.

That’s not correct. History has shown Russia doesn’t stop unless beaten. Afghanistan excepted. The Russia Japanese war, the Crimea war, there are more examples those are just a few. As long as Russia remains at or near it’s current peacetime force structure, they sooner or later will lose. At some point, Ukraine will have enough western heavy weapons to inflict enough loses on the existing Russian army they can no longer fight. 

[Rookiescot]

2 hours ago, oldschooler said:

800,000 Russian passports given to “ pro- Russian “ Ukrainians already ( BBC Article). Suppose you have to be Ethnic Russian / Russian Speaking/ swear Loyaly Oath to Russia AND Hand Over your Ukrainian Passport. (Can always say it’s Lost later and get another ?).

Education & Society also being Russified ) including yes Currency / Banking). Clear signs of impending “ referendum” and illegal “ annexation”.

Wait. One of the reasons to justify the war given by the Putinbots on here was a perceived removal of Russian language and culture from the Ukraine.

So now Czar Putin and his thugs are forcing Russian culture onto the Ukrainians.

 

[oldschooler]

9 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

Russia will be lucky to hold on to Kherson and are preparing for the inevitable. The problem is it’s on the wrong side of the river. 

That’s not correct. History has shown Russia doesn’t stop unless beaten. Afghanistan excepted. The Russia Japanese war, the Crimea war, there are more examples those are just a few. As long as Russia remains at or near it’s current peacetime force structure, they sooner or later will lose. At some point, Ukraine will have enough western heavy weapons to inflict enough loses on the existing Russian army they can no longer fight. 

They were also effectively beaten and broken militarily in WW1 (before Communists pulled them out) but the Germans left them alone (as no threat) to focus on the Western Front.

Only UK/ US Materiel saved them in WW2.

Finns beat them before Russians aerial bombed Helsinki and similarly “ won” in Chechnya & Syria.

They otherwise only win with Human Waves (and millions of their own dead) which could not be deployed in Afghanistan or Ukraine. 

[Fanta]

57 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

Russia will be lucky to hold on to Kherson and are preparing for the inevitable. The problem is it’s on the wrong side of the river. 

How is Russifying an area preparing for the inevitable loss of the area? That’s like customizing a stolen car - you don’t do it unless you think you can keep it. 

58 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

As long as Russia remains at or near it’s current peacetime force structure, they sooner or later will lose. At some point, Ukraine will have enough western heavy weapons to inflict enough loses on the existing Russian army they can no longer fight. 

That is true based on the idea that Russia intends to conquer Ukraine in it’s entirety. Not a stated objective, would remove their desired buffer zone and leave them with insurgents to handle amongst many other problems. Russia is already moving towards increasing their available ground forces. A bill was recently passed to raise the maximum age to volunteer. Ukraine has a lot of conscripts being trained, not trained reserves to be mobilized. The heavy weapons will help even out the artillery playing field but beyond that there is still has a big air power and missile imbalance. If we believe MSM we would think the Russians are using WWII tanks that are poorly driven by acne covered teenaged conscripts. What ever happened to “Russia is running out of PGMs”? They must be down to the last dozen or so by now. I wonder how Putin’s cancer surgery went…. 

[EdwardV]

2 hours ago, Fanta said:

How is Russifying an area preparing for the inevitable loss of the area? That’s like customizing a stolen car - you don’t do it unless you think you can keep it. 

Sorry I wasn’t more clear. Russia is building defensive lines on the east side of the river. Problem is Kherson is on the west side of the river. No doubt Russia would like to hold on to the city, but they know geography is not their friend in this case. 

 

2 hours ago, Fanta said:

Russia is already moving towards increasing their available ground forces. A bill was recently passed to raise the maximum age to volunteer. Ukraine has a lot of conscripts being trained, not trained reserves to be mobilized. The heavy weapons will help even out the artillery playing field but beyond that there is still has a big air power and missile imbalance. If we believe MSM we would think the Russians are using WWII tanks that are poorly driven by acne covered teenaged conscripts. What ever happened to “Russia is running out of PGMs”?

That’s called playing at the margins. Russia needs to vastly increase its force structure, the overall number of battalion tactical groups. Increasing the age of volunteers when you aren’t getting volunteers to begin with is a perfect example of playing at the margins. The thing with artillery is it spends some of its time shooting at each other’s artillery. When that happens, it’s better to have the longer range artillery if you know what I mean. I get laughing at the PGM thing, but I don’t see reports of Russian fighters dropping many. Didn’t Russia just loose a 60 year old general flying a mission where he wasn’t using PGMs? Low and slow is not what you want to be doing at 60. 

[Fanta]

26 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

That’s called playing at the margins. Russia needs to vastly increase its force structure, the overall number of battalion tactical groups

I agree only if their goals is to conquer Ukraine in it’s entirety. Donbas. Donbas, Donbas. After that dig in and defend but maybe that won’t work. I googled Russian artillery range 37.5-47.5 km. The Russians are going to get hammered from artillery which is out of their range when the US send the MLRS with it’s 45-500km range (ammo dependent)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2S7_Pion

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BM-21_Grad

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M270_Multiple_Launch_Rocket_System

[Rookiescot]

22 minutes ago, Fanta said:

I agree only if their goals is to conquer Ukraine in it’s entirety. Donbas. Donbas, Donbas. After that dig in and defend but maybe that won’t work. I googled Russian artillery range 37.5-47.5 km. The Russians are going to get hammered from artillery which is out of their range when the US send the MLRS with it’s 45-500km range (ammo dependent)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2S7_Pion

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BM-21_Grad

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M270_Multiple_Launch_Rocket_System

give it a week. You will see those Russian lines shrinking.

[Rookiescot]

3 hours ago, Fanta said:

How is Russifying an area preparing for the inevitable loss of the area? That’s like customizing a stolen car - you don’t do it unless you think you can keep it. 

That is true based on the idea that Russia intends to conquer Ukraine in it’s entirety. Not a stated objective, would remove their desired buffer zone and leave them with insurgents to handle amongst many other problems. Russia is already moving towards increasing their available ground forces. A bill was recently passed to raise the maximum age to volunteer. Ukraine has a lot of conscripts being trained, not trained reserves to be mobilized. The heavy weapons will help even out the artillery playing field but beyond that there is still has a big air power and missile imbalance. If we believe MSM we would think the Russians are using WWII tanks that are poorly driven by acne covered teenaged conscripts. What ever happened to “Russia is running out of PGMs”? They must be down to the last dozen or so by now. I wonder how Putin’s cancer surgery went…. 

Not a stated objective? Why send special forces to seize airports outside Kyiv intact if the intention was not to take the capitol?

What happened to the already existing buffer zone of Finland? Yeah that worked out well didnt it.

Where is the Russian air power? Look to me like they pretty much stay at home drinking tea.

No-one has said they are using WW2 tanks. Thats just your usual hyperbolae to deflect from the fact that Russia HAS had to start using redundant tanks to make up for their loses. 

Now these are T62's now heading to the Ukraine. 

Not WW2 tanks but it appears its all Russia and Czar Putin have left in the locker.

Its all going wrong aint it.  

[EdwardV]

4 hours ago, Fanta said:

I agree only if their goals is to conquer Ukraine in it’s entirety. Donbas. Donbas, Donbas. After that dig in and defend but maybe that won’t work. I googled Russian artillery range 37.5-47.5 km. The Russians are going to get hammered from artillery which is out of their range when the US send the MLRS with it’s 45-500km range (ammo dependent)

Russia should be able to defend by just backfilling their existing troop levels. Should bring the key term. As long as their logistics and weapon supplies hold out. No reason they shouldn’t but just as with Russian, the Ukrainian’s will make that a priority target once they have the weapons to hit them. 
 

The US announced today they are sending M109 Paladin self propelled howitzers to Ukraine. Shoot and scoot. No word yet on MLRS or anything else quite yet. Self propelled artillery was high on the list of Ukraine’s want list. Of course the Dutch are sending harpoons with launch vehicles too, but that was already known. 
 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-receives-harpoon-missiles-howitzers-says-defence-minister-2022-05-28/

[NorskTiger]

On 5/28/2022 at 1:58 PM, Rookiescot said:

give it a week. You will see those Russian lines shrinking.

  We shall all see on June the 4th then?

[NorskTiger]

On 5/28/2022 at 10:19 AM, Fanta said:

How is Russifying an area preparing for the inevitable loss of the area? That’s like customizing a stolen car - you don’t do it unless you think you can keep it. 

That is true based on the idea that Russia intends to conquer Ukraine in it’s entirety. Not a stated objective, would remove their desired buffer zone and leave them with insurgents to handle amongst many other problems. Russia is already moving towards increasing their available ground forces. A bill was recently passed to raise the maximum age to volunteer. Ukraine has a lot of conscripts being trained, not trained reserves to be mobilized. The heavy weapons will help even out the artillery playing field but beyond that there is still has a big air power and missile imbalance. If we believe MSM we would think the Russians are using WWII tanks that are poorly driven by acne covered teenaged conscripts. What ever happened to “Russia is running out of PGMs”? They must be down to the last dozen or so by now. I wonder how Putin’s cancer surgery went…. 

Russia MAY have intially tried to take Kiev by Coup de main. They NEVER intented to take it by military conquest, but it DID tie up a lot of heavier Ukriane assets initially, while the Donbass front was locked in for Russia. 

     Russia is steadily shrinking the Ukrainean defense perimeter in Donbass, while constantly refining the tactics to minimize own casualties. It is hard to get hold of real news from Western MSM, but one can see movies of Ukriane troops now surrendering in the hundreds, maybe thousands on Telegram. 

    It is there for those who look, but is of course "propaganda". Just like the Azovites with swastikas and deaths head tattoos are fakers as well- 

 

[oldschooler]

1 hour ago, NorskTiger said:

Russia MAY have intially tried to take Kiev by Coup de main. They NEVER intented to take it by military conquest, but it DID tie up a lot of heavier Ukriane assets initially, while the Donbass front was locked in for Russia. 

     Russia is steadily shrinking the Ukrainean defense perimeter in Donbass, while constantly refining the tactics to minimize own casualties. It is hard to get hold of real news from Western MSM, but one can see movies of Ukriane troops now surrendering in the hundreds, maybe thousands on Telegram. 

    It is there for those who look, but is of course "propaganda". Just like the Azovites with swastikas and deaths head tattoos are fakers as well- 

Forget “western msm”& “telegram” social media use here….. just go to https://rusi.org/ for proper war analysis from real recognized experts.

US/ UK M777 Howitzers will outrange & pound the Russians to oblivion within days enabling usual Ukrainian counter- attacks which never fail… 

Azovs not worth mentioning. Spent Force. Never Significant. Way more fascist nationalist scum in Russia than Ukraine, all led & fed by top butcher Nazi Putin. Let’s move on ….

[Thaidup]

8 hours ago, oldschooler said:

Azovs not worth mentioning. Spent Force. Never Significant. Way more fascist nationalist scum in Russia than Ukraine, all led & fed by top butcher Nazi Putin. Let’s move on ….

The media was reporting last week how they were "evacuated"? the Nazi Putin thing seems to be trending now too, Kinda like the KKK and the Democrats,back in the day.

Just tell when Russia went nazi, for clarification please I was allways of the understanding that they fought against them and lost 3 million Russian souls in the process, but are you saying that they turned into nazi'a quicker than the republicans in the USA turned into the KKK?

Had to put in screenshot of the news, just to back up what i read about the "evacuation"

 

 

Edited May 30 by Faz
screenshot removed

[Thaidup]

On 3/16/2022 at 10:17 AM, Pinetree said:

My view.

After on going talks, Ukraine , as it has already done, will pledge never to join NATO or the EU. They will sign a None Aggression Pact, (good luck with that, remember how the last one panned out and the one before that ).  Russian Military  will withdraw. leaving behind in the border states a 'Security Force'. Ukraine will sign an exclusive trade deal with Russia/China, excluding most trade from the EU.  After 6 months, all sanctions will be removed and all friends again. After 12 months , Putin retires from public life to be replaced by another criminal lunatic in a different suit. 

Losers, most definitely the  westerns democracies, who will be shown to be clueless, toothless and politically and diplomatically incompetent. without the courage of their convictions. The US will fade into irrelevance, if it hasn't already. And of course Ukraine, who are the biggest losers in this farce. 

Winners,  China and North Korea, who see how much hot air is generated by democracies who then do nothing. Within 3 years,  Taiwan gets invaded. 

Its all rather  predictable and very depressing. 

Trump will be reelected.  Biden will still think he's still the President and also a flying Ewok . 

Max will win his second F1 title 

Tom Brady will get his eighth Super Bowl win and then retire. 

Chelsea football club will go bust ( good news).

Boris will trip over his own ego and break his silly neck. 

So far your thoughts on the subject are panning out, The cost of this nonsense is weakening all of NATO via energy costs and inflation.

China is Telling Biden to but out of their national security openly to the world

Boris tripped over the party streamers.

NK is launching new missiles.

You are on a winning streak

But to add one more, this thing will end only when Putin decides.

[oldschooler]

1 hour ago, Thaidup said:

The media was reporting last week how they were "evacuated"? the Nazi Putin thing seems to be trending now too, Kinda like the KKK and the Democrats,back in the day.

Just tell when Russia went nazi, for clarification please I was allways of the understanding that they fought against them and lost 3 million Russian souls in the process, but are you saying that they turned into nazi'a quicker than the republicans in the USA turned into the KKK?

Had to put in screenshot of the news, just to back up what i read about the "evacuation"

Putin using Russian Nationalism and love of Motherland and promising a Greater Russia ; to whip up support from his ignorant brainwashed population. Putin uses FSB Terror and Imprisonment as Gestapo tactics against dissidents.

Putin has behaved like Hitler by invading next door nations who “ threaten” him so as to “ protect” and “liberate” Ethnic Russians outside his borders. 

All Clear Fascist/  Nazi Behaviour.
Was Little Difference between Nazism & Stalinism.  

[oldschooler]

52 minutes ago, Thaidup said:

So far your thoughts on the subject are panning out, The cost of this nonsense is weakening all of NATO via energy costs and inflation.

China is Telling Biden to but out of their national security openly to the world

Boris tripped over the party streamers.

NK is launching new missiles.

You are on a winning streak

But to add one more, this thing will end only when Putin decides.

Trivial Failed HumourIt’s Putin delivering “ nonsense” and who clearly won’t “end” this. 

[Thaidup]

9 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

Putin using Russian Nationalism and love of Motherland and promising a Greater Russia ; to whip up support from his ignorant brainwashed population. Putin uses FSB Terror and Imprisonment as Gestapo tactics against dissidents.

Putin has behaved like Hitler by invading next door nations who “ threaten” him so as to “ protect” and “liberate” Ethnic Russians outside his borders. 

All Clear Fascist/  Nazi Behaviour.
Was Little Difference between Nazism & Stalinism.  

There are a few points oldschooler that need to be put into perspective, And i have recieved the criticism already for pointing these out, Back in 2014 the US instigated an orange revolution in Ukraine via the like of George Sorros and Victoria Nulan.

[Thaidup]

I left a space there to see what you reply as, and if you are open to a discussion I will carry on.

I will inject here though to remind you about "Watergate" It happened and the only reason that we know it happened was because of whistleblowers and investigative journalism.

My point about watergate is that it happened, before we found out,before the whistleblower, before the investigation. It happened and back then no-one could believe that it could happen

[Thaidup]

I can only imagine how the USA would react, if for an example Russia made a deal with Cuba to put a military base with some"weapons" there. Oh wait didn't happen already?

Will be interesting to see the US reaction if Chine does a deal Mexico about a base like they are doing in the south China sea. Near Australia.

[snapdragon]

6 hours ago, Thaidup said:

So far your thoughts on the subject are panning out, The cost of this nonsense is weakening all of NATO via energy costs and inflation.

China is Telling Biden to but out of their national security openly to the world

Boris tripped over the party streamers.

NK is launching new missiles.

You are on a winning streak

But to add one more, this thing will end only when Putin decides.

Don''t make you wrong, but not so sure. Of course President Putin holds all the aces, but until the US gives the green light, there will not be sincere dialog.

In my circle of info', Zalenskyky has been told by the extreme right, that on no account should he negotiate. Was there not a killing already over this? Given the current state of affairs, Zalensky just wants to drift away to enjoy his millions; but at the moment he is zugzwanged.

IMO, NATO is being looked upon with more scrutiny that ever, and it is not the happy party that the west would have us believe. What is the point of NATO? a fair question in my book. But I really know the answer; to allow the US to control everything. And IMO; fundamentally is what the conflict is all about.

And that fool Boris Johnson, prancing about in a UK weapon's factory. If it wasn't already, it will surely be a target if the war escalates. Hope their workers are happy over their place of work broadcast all over western MSM.

[Vigo]

Sanctions take time to make themselves felt. We are only a few months in to some sanctions. Give the sanctions a year and urban Russians will be unhappy.  Russia has achieved for Germany what theGermany environmentalists could not, a weaning off of a dependency upon Russian fossil fuel. The expedited transfer away from Russian energy sources is the best thing for the EU as it will establish their energy independence and free it from Russian pressure. The forced slashing of oil and gas prices will allow India and China economies to quickly recover using cheap fuel. The Russian aggression has forced Europe, Sweden and Finland to take a more assertive ownership of their defense. All this is occurring while Russia  will be spending  on a war it really cannot afford. The Ukraine invasion will damage the Russian economy for the next generation and is the the start of the downfall of Russia's ability to do more than bully. After many billion roubles are wasted, there will be nothing left to take care of an ageing Russian  population that is very unhealthy. 

[oldschooler]

3 hours ago, snapdragon said:

Don''t make you wrong, but not so sure. Of course President Putin holds all the aces, but until the US gives the green light, there will not be sincere dialog.

In my circle of info', Zalenskyky has been told by the extreme right, that on no account should he negotiate. Was there not a killing already over this? Given the current state of affairs, Zalensky just wants to drift away to enjoy his millions; but at the moment he is zugzwanged.

IMO, NATO is being looked upon with more scrutiny that ever, and it is not the happy party that the west would have us believe. What is the point of NATO? a fair question in my book. But I really know the answer; to allow the US to control everything. And IMO; fundamentally is what the conflict is all about.

And that fool Boris Johnson, prancing about in a UK weapon's factory. If it wasn't already, it will surely be a target if the war escalates. Hope their workers are happy over their place of work broadcast all over western MSM.

Radio Russia Speaks usual Idiocy.

” Putin holds all the aces”. Like What ? 
No, he clearly doesn’t.

”What is NATO for?” ; seriously ? 
To Defend Civilization against existential threat of barbaric Russia.

That role has never changed and never will until Russia is Free & Democratic.