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Russia v Ukraine - How This Is Going To End


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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, EdwardV said:

I think I’ll stick with the “Russian missiles suck” theory

They probably are less accurate than American guided munitions. Dating right back to the Cold War, the US had an advantage on precision guidance systems. The Russians made up for it by developing heavier missiles with a larger throw weight, right up to the fearsome SS18, which could deliver up to a 25 Megaton warhead - who cares when something like that has a CEP of a kilometer or more?

I suppose that this is an illustration of how Russia does warfare. They don't fight nicely, and they don't care who gets in the way, or how many of their own side is lost in the process.

Ceasefire, anyone? That or Ukraine continues getting wrecked and turned into parts of Russia. 

Edited by dbrenn
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1 minute ago, Fanta said:

Yesterday the Russian mouthpiece TASS gave some space for Henry Kissinger’s opinion on the possible outcomes of this war.

https://tass.com/world/1474291

Russian troops are inside Lysychansk so the writing is on the wall there.  
Russia only strikes civilian targets? That is at odds with the amount of Russian missiles fired deep inside Ukraine daily and the comparatively low numbers of civilian buildings reported damaged by these strikes. 
There has been a lot of talk questioning Russia’s ability to replace diminishing stockpiles of weapons but very little talk about the West’s ability to continue the supply of weapons and also restock their own stockpiles. Ukraine cannot make any weapons or ammo in part because their manufacturing facilities are largely destroyed. The West’s ability to manufacture needs time. After Donbas falls we may well see a lull in the fighting as Ukraine withdraws to prepare a counter offensive and Russia consolidates it’s gains. 

Excellent . Just retract your “ only”. 👍😉

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2 minutes ago, dbrenn said:

They probably are less accurate than American guided munitions. Dating right back to the Cold War, the US had an advantage on precision guidance systems. The Russians made up for it by developing heavier missiles with a larger throw weight, right up to the SS18, which could deliver up to a 25 Megaton warhead - who cares when something like that has a CEP of up to a kilometer or more?

I suppose that this is an illustration of how Russia does warfare. They don't fight nicely, and they don't care who gets in the way, or how many of their own side is lost in the process.

Ceasefire, anyone?

Good Post. Ruined by last sentence🤣

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4 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

Good Post. Ruined by last sentence🤣

Oh dear, oh dear. You are a bit of a warmonger, my friend. 

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2 hours ago, Fanta said:

I always try to be fair. Admittedly I don’t concede many points because I am always right except when I am mistaken  😜
Can we agree that the Russian army is designed to defend against NATO? If so that  deflates the Europe attack balloon - is that the sound of hot air escaping into the atmosphere?  

No military or weapons are exclusively “ designed to defend “.Odd Suggestion. 
Especially when applied to a NATO attack on a nuclear- armed Russia which ain’t never happening unprovoked ! 
Russian Military Doctrine has always been Offensive. Using Mass Tanks / Artillery / Human Waves. Historically awful at Field Defense.Tend to just  Retreat burning all behind them, Hold Cities,  or get surrounded/ destroyed. 😉👍

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22 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

Indeed. Journalists useful & vital when reporting impact on soldiers & civilians from the front. Interviews. Battle Damage /Sounds. Military Movements. Terror. Exhaustion. Despair. All on Display😠😞Painful & Sad to Observe. 

Close Up & Personal Raw Human Elements. Many excellent such videos on You Tube under msm banners. 👍

Sensationalist Sales Tactics it may cynically be said but nonetheless Real Life / Death ( “red in tooth & claw”) with Brave Journalists risking their Lives to report to us Live, this grim destruction. 😡😩
 

Journalists however of near zero value when trying uselessly to report / analyze military operations. Leave that to the presentations & articles by the real western military professionals😉

Agreed, right up to the last paragraph. Military professionals need to be held to account by an independent media.

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21 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

Decent post. Ruined by unevidenced final three words😩

How is it underevidenced when entire cities keep falling?

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36 minutes ago, dbrenn said:

How will that happen in a way that will make any difference? Transport links are being blockaded, and the Ukrainian Army seems to be on the run.

Well so far there has been almost no trouble in doing so. There is a link a few pages back quoting a US source saying Russia has failed in stopping weapon transfers into Ukraine. The path isn’t that hard if you think about it. The weapons are flown into either Poland or Romania. Trucked to the border, transferred and then trucked into Ukraine. Easy peasy. Russia has almost no flights in the interior of Ukraine and it’s impossible to hit a moving target with a missile fired from the Black Sea. 
 

Exactly where is the Ukrainian army on the run? Kyiv? Kharkiv? Oh wait I know, it’s Kherson right? Hahaha. 

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4 minutes ago, dbrenn said:

Oh dear, oh dear. You are a bit of a warmonger, my friend. 

No. Realist vs weird Naivety.

You continue to be Impervious / Blind To Reason & Facts, disrespecting Ukraine, with your naive schoolboy politics, with daft calls for “peace”, when clearly Neither Side Wants It Presently. Let this play out naturally.

Who are you to keep parroting an impossible “ peace” when Violated Ukraine DON’T WANT IT. 😞

Try RESPECTING  the clear wishes of the Battered Ukrainian People for our Support not Surrender. THEY will let us know when they change their minds. 😉😌

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8 minutes ago, dbrenn said:

Agreed, right up to the last paragraph. Military professionals need to be held to account by an independent media.

😩They Are, Technically.  But “ media” rarely have same Intelligence so that’s practically impossible.
 

more important that they’re Accountable to their fellow Peers, which ensures any lies are very rare (as Reputation Gone) and challenged / revised ( unlike non- western sources). 😉👍

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

Well so far there has been almost no trouble in doing so. There is a link a few pages back quoting a US source saying Russia has failed in stopping weapon transfers into Ukraine. The path isn’t that hard if you think about it. The weapons are flown into either Poland or Romania. Trucked to the border, transferred and then trucked into Ukraine. Easy peasy. Russia has almost no flights in the interior of Ukraine and it’s impossible to hit a moving target with a missile fired from the Black Sea. 
 

Exactly where is the Ukrainian army on the run? Kyiv? Kharkiv? Oh wait I know, it’s Kherson right? Hahaha. 

I get it that getting weapons across the border might be easy peasey, as you describe. But what about getting them to where they can make a difference, in the hands of people who know how to use them, with one pocket after another of the Ukrainian Army being encircled by Russia. 

We've heard reports of skirmishes around Kherson, but has it been retaken? All we hear of these days is one Ukrainian city falling after another. Even Zelensky concedes it's been happening. 

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27 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

Russia has almost no flights in the interior of Ukraine and it’s impossible to hit a moving target with a missile fired from the Black Sea. 

Equipment warehouses and ammo dumps don’t move. Neither do training facilities, command posts or military bases. Largely unreported are Russia’s claims to be firing the majority of their missiles with successful results at these locations. If we were to believe the regurgitated Ukrainian statements on Russian attacks inside territories then we would believe that anything military is largely unscathed. If we were to believe… 

27 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

Exactly where is the Ukrainian army on the run? Kyiv? Kharkiv? Oh wait I know, it’s Kherson right? Hahaha. 

Reliving past glories of a successful defense again? The longer the silence goes on regarding the UAF counter offensive at Kherson the more ominous it becomes. 
Most recently Sieverodonetsk has seen the UAF abandoning all heavy equipment and withdrawing. Soon to be Lysychansk? There are allegedly 5,000+ UAF troops in just those 2 areas. They may soon be either withdrawing through a 20-30 km wide corridor flanked by Russian troops and artillery or taking dirt naps. That raises an unasked question - POW’s. Pro Russian sources claim 6,000+ Ukrainian POWs vs 500 Russian POWs. 144 POWs, including some Azov soldiers, were recently exchanged and trumpeted as a victory by Ukraine . 

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14 minutes ago, dbrenn said:

How is it underevidenced when entire cities keep falling?

They don’t. It’s  “towns” falling. Which have circa 100k populations, less than most individual London Boroughs . “ Cities” are unfallen places like Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa. Ukraine Army is simply NOT, in any sense, “on the run”.

That was the beaten Russian Army retreating from Kyiv.😂🤣

Careful when using incorrect throw away terms. Presents you here as anti - Ukraine too. Credibility Once Damaged is Difficult to Restore 😩

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25 minutes ago, Fanta said:

but very little talk about the West’s ability to continue the supply of weapons and also restock their own stockpiles.

Excellent point and one that doesn’t get nearly enough discussion in western press. A few experts talk about it but not many. Modern wars are come as you are events. No country, Russia, America or China can produce enough weapons to replace but a fraction of what’s destroyed in a major war. In this regard Russia has a huge advantage because they are horders. No matter how old or obsolete, they don’t throw it out. The old Soviet Union spent big bucks taking care of these weapon stockpiles. The new Russian not so much, with the resulting effects. However what little is now useable is still a lot of weapons. Of course the west is made up of a lot of counties to draw from so they have that. However they have also proven they will only give so much in case the war spills over. They won’t draw down and leave themselves short. Russia doesn’t have that issue, or at least they have the luxury of being able to control that issue. Many of the missiles Russia is now flinging into Ukraine we’re made in the 60s. That’s insane by western standards.
 

To me it’s a question of will the west run out of weapons they are willing to donate before Russia runs out of soldiers they can get to volunteer. 

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41 minutes ago, dbrenn said:

They probably are less accurate than American guided munitions. Dating right back to the Cold War, the US had an advantage on precision guidance systems. The Russians made up for it by developing heavier missiles with a larger throw weight, right up to the fearsome SS18, which could deliver up to a 25 Megaton warhead - who cares when something like that has a CEP of a kilometer or more?

I suppose that this is an illustration of how Russia does warfare. They don't fight nicely, and they don't care who gets in the way, or how many of their own side is lost in the process.

Ceasefire, anyone? That or Ukraine continues getting wrecked and turned into parts of Russia. 

Yes, Ukraine is Wrecked by Russia as Primary War Aim. Inevitable & Unpreventable. What Of It ? Why mention it in gloating terms ?

Russia is Not Physically Wrecked just a 3rd world gas station / dump stolen by 200 thieves & murderers ( unchanged since start 1000 years ago). 

Your odd tendencies keep popping up so I’m compelled to conduct “ Whack AMole” on your otherwise often decent posts ruined constantly by their incoherent endings. 

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17 minutes ago, Fanta said:

Equipment warehouses and ammo dumps don’t move.

You really think Ukraine has enough weapons to fill these places to the brim? How cute. There is a reason the west isn’t flooding Ukraine with more weapons then they can use at the front. For the exact reason you point out. 

 

20 minutes ago, Fanta said:

Most recently Sieverodonetsk has seen the UAF abandoning all heavy equipment and withdrawing.

Prophetic words? The exact same thing might be in Kherson’s future. The set up is the same. 
 

If the troops withdrew from Sieverodonstsk, exactly how are they trapped again? Every time Russia gets close to trapping a portion of Ukraine’s army, they slip away. We will see, can’t get away every time right?

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4 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

Excellent point and one that doesn’t get nearly enough discussion in western press. A few experts talk about it but not many. Modern wars are come as you are events. No country, Russia, America or China can produce enough weapons to replace but a fraction of what’s destroyed in a major war. In this regard Russia has a huge advantage because they are horders. No matter how old or obsolete, they don’t throw it out. The old Soviet Union spent big bucks taking care of these weapon stockpiles. The new Russian not so much, with the resulting effects. However what little is now useable is still a lot of weapons. Of course the west is made up of a lot of counties to draw from so they have that. However they have also proven they will only give so much in case the war spills over. They won’t draw down and leave themselves short. Russia doesn’t have that issue, or at least they have the luxury of being able to control that issue. Many of the missiles Russia is now flinging into Ukraine we’re made in the 60s. That’s insane by western standards.
 

To me it’s a question of will the west run out of weapons they are willing to donate before Russia runs out of soldiers they can get to volunteer. 

Yes, especially the last paragraph,  which is Crucial/ Essence.

Russia Simply Cannot Buy ( with its unlimited cash) that Essential Resource which will shortly no longer exist in sufficient numbers, i.e. Motivated Experienced Trained Competent ….. Soldiers & Commanders.😌😩

This WILL surely expire long before Western Weapons / Training / Ammo Supply.  😎😉😎

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Just now, EdwardV said:

You really think Ukraine has enough weapons to fill these places to the brim? How cute. There is a reason the west isn’t flooding Ukraine with more weapons then they can use at the front. For the exact reason you point out. 

Prophetic words? The exact same thing might be in Kherson’s future. The set up is the same. 
 

If the troops withdrew from Sieverodonstsk, exactly how are they trapped again? Every time Russia gets close to trapping a portion of Ukraine’s army, they slip away. We will see, can’t get away every time right?

Exactly. “Just In Time” Weapons / Ammo Supply Direct to Frontline. 😉👍😎

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9 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

To me it’s a question of will the west run out of weapons they are willing to donate before Russia runs out of soldiers they can get to volunteer

Russia’s rhetoric is increasing about this being a Russia vs NATO war for many reasons. One could well be the need to justify a mobilization as a regrettable but necessary measure to ensure the safety and eventual success of Mother Russia’s special military operation against the evil actions of the Western imperialist aggressors (or something like that). So fresh meat won’t be a problem for Russia. Available boom sticks… could be a far bigger problem for Ukraine than it is for Russia. 

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31 minutes ago, dbrenn said:

But what about getting them to where they can make a difference, in the hands of people who know how to use them,

Again doesn’t seem to be a problem. Plenty of video showing western weapons on action at the front. How to use them? You really haven’t read about the large training facilities in Poland and Romania? 

 

33 minutes ago, dbrenn said:

All we hear of these days is one Ukrainian city falling after another

And yet when you look at a map you don’t see a lot of change. Honestly I’m surprised by your statement. Since trading land for time is a well honed military strategy used when defending against a more powerful enemy. Russia used it in WW2 to great success. Yet you don’t seem to recognize it. 

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4 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

You really think Ukraine has enough weapons to fill these places to the brim? How cute. There is a reason the west isn’t flooding Ukraine with more weapons then they can use at the front. For the exact reason you point out. 

You think the Russians do not know where the weapons are initially delivered, likely transit routes and eventual storage locations and are picking where to fire missiles at by pulling names out of a hat? Russia has done this war thing before and their intelligence sources aren’t restricted to USSR era maps of Ukraine’s army bases.   The reason the West isn’t flooding Ukraine with weapons are many and lack of available safe storage locations is but one of them. 

10 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

If the troops withdrew from Sieverodonstsk, exactly how are they trapped again? Every time Russia gets close to trapping a portion of Ukraine’s army, they slip away. We will see, can’t get away every time right?

A picture tells a thousand words and cauldron is but one.  Note the scale in the bottom right corner. Not good. 
3884B3EA-BFE0-4772-AFE7-185F57133F19.thumb.jpeg.cbb2250e8f6a0bcbea6e8a769b3d10be.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, Fanta said:

So fresh meat won’t be a problem for Russia. Available boom sticks… could be a far bigger problem for Ukraine than it is for Russia.

Fully agree. I get there is some kind of internal issue which is keeping Russia from declaring war and mobilizing. Don’t know what it is, but it’s got to be something. Until then, they will play at the margins and continue to crawl until they are exhausted. I’ve always said this is Russia’s war to lose, and if they don’t do something to change the manpower dynamic, they will do just that. Lose. 

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14 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

This WILL surely expire long before Western Weapons / Training / Ammo Supply.  😎😉😎

All the weapons in the world aren’t that much use if no officers are available to tell the grunts when and where to fire them. It takes years to train officers to competently command troops. Ukraine & NATO may be able to rapidly train and push conscripts into battle however without a chain of command they are best suited to holding defensive positions, not participating in the counter offensives that win wars. 

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1 minute ago, Fanta said:

Russia has done this war thing before

To be fair, a war like this hasn’t been done by Russia since WW2. You can hit all the warehouses you want, you will not destroy much since Ukraine doesn’t have much. That’s been by western design even if Ukraine hates it. 

 

4 minutes ago, Fanta said:

A picture tells a thousand words and cauldron is but one.  Note the scale in the bottom right corner. Not good. 

No argument from me, that doesn’t look good for sure. Still have to close that loop and keep it closed. The question will be how many, and so far Russia doesn’t have a good track record in hitting the bag limit. Like I said, maybe this time will be different. Not holding my breath, are you?

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19 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

Exactly. “Just In Time” Weapons / Ammo Supply Direct to Frontline. 😉👍😎

JIT did work out very well for the automotive industry for the last few years. Just saying… 

If Russia gets a second wind after a spell of R&R in Donbas then the UAF either need a successful counter offensive launched at the right time or the weapons in place to repel another Russian onslaught. Time will tell. 

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