News Forum - Thailand will declare Covid-19 endemic, whether WHO agrees or not

[bvbeyond]

For this specific virus science and or politics isn't going to arrive at total eradication.  Israel after an aggressive roll out of vaccines with multiple boosters still has the virus.  Australia closed borders for 2 years and still have the virus.  China, after severe lock-ins and euthanizing family pets in some cities as possible carriers still haven't fully rid themselves of the virus.  Meanwhile some countries that didn't close borders may not have the best incident rates, but surprisingly many have lower rates than some places that did lock down.   

In the beginning lockdowns and masks seemed a valid sacrifice to buy time for medical research.    Now 2 years on, there are some imperfect vaccines and treatments to lower severity.  

So now after 2 years of sacrifice, but with some medical treatments, nations have to ask what is reasonable going forward. 

Is risking exposure and possible early death for those in poor health too high a cost, or is the real cost these same people having spent the final years of their life locked away in isolation.   Maybe length of life is not as important as quality.   

Nations also have to ask if a low national case count on a website worth continuing to suffocate economic segments such as restaurants, theaters, live sports, bars, and tourism.  Not to mention watching those who work in those those segments sink into poverty.  Perhaps national pride isn't about a number on a web site, but actually having economically and socially content citizens. 

Finally nations have to consider the effects being apart has had stability. After 2 years without tourism, travel, or even people conversing at a local pub, there has been a marked increase of crime, election dramas, coups, and nations outright gearing for invasion of neighbors.  Perhaps getting to know one another is what keeps us from killing one another.

 

[DiJoDavO]

1 hour ago, Chaimai said:

Another one who turns a blind eye to the evidence.

Conspiracy theorists or not, the numbers at my crematorium are up by 30%

But are they all from Covid? 

Besides that, if there's one way that Covid was dangerous, it's because they forced people to do very unhealthy things. 

Stay home, no sunlight, close every outdoor activity, close gyms, don't come in contact with other people (sharing germs), living a sterile life, so be dependent on alcohol gel instead of strengthening your immune system. 

Every wrong choice was made. 

If it's true that the numbers are up, I'd definitely look into those measures that have been made the law. 

Either way, normal amount of deaths or more deaths thanks to these measures. It seems like the people who are panicking were wrong in any way. 

[Chaimai]

1 hour ago, DiJoDavO said:

But are they all from Covid? 

Besides that, if there's one way that Covid was dangerous, it's because they forced people to do very unhealthy things. 

Stay home, no sunlight, close every outdoor activity, close gyms, don't come in contact with other people (sharing germs), living a sterile life, so be dependent on alcohol gel instead of strengthening your immune system. 

Every wrong choice was made. 

If it's true that the numbers are up, I'd definitely look into those measures that have been made the law. 

Either way, normal amount of deaths or more deaths thanks to these measures. It seems like the people who are panicking were wrong in any way. 

 

The increase was due to 'Covid cases"   (as the increases were due to influenza when we last had a serious outbreak  - flu usually saw a 10-15% increase).

 

The deaths were due to Covid, not the measures you mention. The deaths were due to the deceased picking up Covid from another person who had Covid. Most, but certainly not all, were older and had some sort of underlying condition - and yes, we would have got them eventually.

 

Only an idiot would try to believe that Covid infection was not the cause of increased deaths.

[DiJoDavO]

31 minutes ago, Chaimai said:

 

The deaths were due to Covid, not the measures you mention. The deaths were due to the deceased picking up Covid from another person who had Covid. Most, but certainly not all, were older and had some sort of underlying condition - and yes, we would have got them eventually.

Most were older yes. 

But what if you got weaker because of the measures. That's were Covid actually could do something bad. But any flu would do that. 

If you live a shitty lifestyle, you are weaker.

And if you are a normal healthy person, you'll beat Covid in no time. 

That's not rocket science. 

Every measure taken was one which could affect people's ability to stay healthy. If those high numbers, which the news mentioned everyday, were true, this is certainly one of the causes. 

[Transam]

14 hours ago, JJJ said:

According to some easy research, influenza/pneumonia deaths were 44,000 in 2018. Total covid deaths are now around 22,000. Does that make the flu a pandemic? 

Those numbers are nowhere near other country numbers affected by Covid, that's why it is a pandemic...

Turn it around, look at road deaths in LOS and other country's....

[Stonker]

8 hours ago, FTF020 said:

Maybe leave the interpretation of medical research to those who spent 4-10 years studying for it..

Anyone can cherrypick passages they like from a report like that. Even uneducated old me can! :

(from that same report, a couple paragraphs down after they address those negative estimates you mention :) )

Btw Malta?

Thank you - they weren't just cherry picked but edited to the point of being not just misleading but misinformation.

The comparisons weren't with the "unvaccinated" but with the unvaccinated who'd already been infected and developed antibodies (which far from all those with Omicron do, as the study subjects were all pre-Omicron).

Totally different to the picture painted by @Mr Novax.

[Stonker]

9 hours ago, ace035 said:

Who cares about the freakin endemic? As long as the Thai government kept putting more rules and restrictions to tourists on entering Thailand and even less COVID-19 cases before, it will never stop. A Thai national can enter U.S or U.K with no restrictions at all very easily than us as a regular tourists on going to Thailand.

Umm ... yes - and look at the infection and Covid death rates in the UK and US.

I'm not suggesting they're a result of the tourists, but they're as good an indicator as it gets that their decisions over 'Covid management' are a disaster.

[oldschooler]

13 hours ago, Vince said:

Many so-called lockdowns merely pushed people into private spaces (see Italy), mandatory face masks were often simple cloth masks of dubious usefulness, and closing down a pad Thai restaurant or a Taqueria is hardly going to stop an a crowded apartment from getting everyone sick. 

Even if true, the most likely impacted population - the elderly, obese, and frail - were close to mortality limits anyway. 

These mass un-targeted measures amounted to extending lifespan a few years for some, at the cost of global poverty for years - for millions. 

Targeted measures would be - and are - still appropriate. 

Exactly. Instead, with mass measures they shackled the 99.8% who were never going to die of Covid to the 0.2% vulnerable ( let’s assume 10x the 0.02% actual average unfit dead) so entire societies & economies massively & negatively impacted. Millions pushed back into Poverty, Untreated Cancer/ Heart / Lung Diseases, etc.

[Stonker]

3 hours ago, Soidog said:

Sorry @Stonkerbut we’ve had this conversation before. I simply don’t know why you chose to believe the figure of 30, when many other independent scientific reports suggest figures of 3,000-4,000 fatalities a year from influenza alone in Thailand. In fact the economic burden of influenza is seen as relatively high for a middle income country, mainly driven by the lack of vaccination in the elderly. To believe 30, other than during the Covid pandemic, is simply stretching things too much. It’s not 44,000 as quoted, but it’s certainly not 30 either. 

We have indeed had this conversation before, and every time I give links confirming definitively what the numbers are and you ignore them:

https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/crimecourtscalamity/2020/11/19/2020s-flu-cases-plunge-in-covid-anxious-thailand/

"According to the Department of Disease Control, from Jan. 1 to Nov 10, there were 116,052 reported cases of influenza, with three deaths nationwide. 

That’s almost a 70 percent drop from the past year. Between Jan. 1, 2019 and Jan. 7, 2020, a total of 390,773 cases of influenza were noted, with 27 dead. 

This year’s numbers also compare favorably to years prior: during Jan. to Dec. 2018, officials recorded more than 172,000 cases and 31 deaths, close to the five-year-average."

https://ddc.moph.go.th/uploads/files/1564820201116030358.pdf

https://ddc.moph.go.th/uploads/files/1094720200108023307.pdf

https://ddc.moph.go.th/uploads/files/3f4c93593f812bb9c1ae5184781a3425.pdf

Those are the official figures for 2020, 2019 and 2018 from the Thai Ministry of Public Health who are probably in a pretty good position to know!

.

The figures you and others such as @JJJ and @DiJoDavO give are for influenza and pneumonia, and they very clearly state that but you (and they) ignore that.  They include deaths that are only due to pneumonia, known by medics world-wide as 'the old people's friend' as it kills so many old people.

http://www.thainihnic.org/annualmeeting2012/10-Influenza control and lab 25 May 2012.pdf

Where the stats don't include pneumonia but are based on influenza alone, they're not based on any detail or stats from Thailand but on "statistical modeling" based on the US which has a very different climate and population demographic, in studies by such as the US NCBI, and they're a decade out of date before Thailand introduced wide influenza vaccinations:

"Therefore, estimation of influenza-associated deaths or hospitalizations often relies on statistical modeling rather than on direct measurement."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4605410/

 

 

 

[Stonker]

2 hours ago, DiJoDavO said:

If you live a shitty lifestyle, you are weaker. And if you are a normal healthy person, you'll beat Covid in no time. That's not rocket science.

No, not "rocket science", just completely untrue as the News Forum gets more like the CCC every day.

[oldschooler]

Zero Interest what Thailand WILL Do.

On ANY subject. Talk is Cheap here. 

Or Plans,Targets,Estimates,Considers.

Wake me up when whatever is DONE.

Only then worth talking about impact.

[Stonker]

28 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

Exactly. Instead, with mass measures they shackled the 99.8% who were never going to die of Covid to the 0.2% vulnerable ( let’s assume 10x the 0.02% actual average unfit dead) so entire societies & economies massively & negatively impacted. Millions pushed back into Poverty, Untreated Cancer/ Heart / Lung Diseases, etc.

Only 0.2% are vulnerable in you view?

Seriously?  Where?  On what planet?

In the UK 3.7 million were advised to shield as they were "clinically extremely vulnerable" - that's EXTREMELY vulnerable, not vulnerable, and that was subsequently increased to 4 million. That's 5% of the population, so a mere twenty five times your estimate just for the extremely vulnerable.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-13/one-million-people-are-still-shielding-from-covid-in-england

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n467

If you extend that to the vulnerable and include the elderly, obese and those with underlying medical conditions from diabetes to cancer and heart conditions, you get at least 40% of the population in any country.

 

[DiJoDavO]

27 minutes ago, Stonker said:

No, not "rocket science", just completely untrue as the News Forum gets more like the CCC every day.

Ok, then I dare you to sit in your room, staring at your phone for 24/7, no exercise, close your windows and curtains, eat only McDonald's and sugar. Let's see how that shitty lifestyle won't affect you

Completely untrue... I thought that last time I was just joking, saying that whenever I say water is wet, you would argue against it. But I wasn't so wrong with that joke.

[Fundok]

"I respectfully disagree with your assessment."

Fair enough, and I fully agree with you that respecting different views is exactly what makes discussions in this forum fruitful.

To your point: the only way to really keep this virus at bay (including the prevention of the development of new mutations) requires the vaccination of pretty much everyone on the world. In addition, having a medication we can use to treat an active infection would help. With all the admiration I have for those scientists and pharma companies to develop vaccines in practical no time: we aren't there yet. So I remain cautious in declaring that this pandemic is over. Yet I have full sympathy for people with more optimism declaring the pandemic to be over.

Both of us do some guessing here; time will tell who of the two of us was right. Would be happy if I'd be the one being wrong 

[Fundok]

18 hours ago, JJJ said:

According to some easy research, influenza/pneumonia deaths were 44,000 in 2018. Total covid deaths are now around 22,000. Does that make the flu a pandemic? 

The number of deaths is not the criteria that determines if something qualifies as a pandemia or not. Wikipedia definition:

"A pandemic is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. A widespread endemic disease with a stable number of infected individuals is not a pandemic. Widespread endemic diseases with a stable number of infected individuals such as recurrences of seasonal influenza are generally excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the globe rather than being spread worldwide."

Does this answer your question?

 

[Faz]

A number of off topic posts have been removed along with the replies.
The topic is not about death rates ....... desist and get back on topic.

[Soidog]

1 hour ago, Stonker said:

We have indeed had this conversation before, and every time I give links confirming definitively what the numbers are and you ignore them:

https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/crimecourtscalamity/2020/11/19/2020s-flu-cases-plunge-in-covid-anxious-thailand/

"According to the Department of Disease Control, from Jan. 1 to Nov 10, there were 116,052 reported cases of influenza, with three deaths nationwide. 

That’s almost a 70 percent drop from the past year. Between Jan. 1, 2019 and Jan. 7, 2020, a total of 390,773 cases of influenza were noted, with 27 dead. 

This year’s numbers also compare favorably to years prior: during Jan. to Dec. 2018, officials recorded more than 172,000 cases and 31 deaths, close to the five-year-average."

https://ddc.moph.go.th/uploads/files/1564820201116030358.pdf

https://ddc.moph.go.th/uploads/files/1094720200108023307.pdf

https://ddc.moph.go.th/uploads/files/3f4c93593f812bb9c1ae5184781a3425.pdf

Those are the official figures for 2020, 2019 and 2018 from the Thai Ministry of Public Health who are probably in a pretty good position to know!

.

The figures you and others such as @JJJ and @DiJoDavO give are for influenza and pneumonia, and they very clearly state that but you (and they) ignore that.  They include deaths that are only due to pneumonia, known by medics world-wide as 'the old people's friend' as it kills so many old people.

http://www.thainihnic.org/annualmeeting2012/10-Influenza control and lab 25 May 2012.pdf

Where the stats don't include pneumonia but are based on influenza alone, they're not based on any detail or stats from Thailand but on "statistical modeling" based on the US which has a very different climate and population demographic, in studies by such as the US NCBI, and they're a decade out of date before Thailand introduced wide influenza vaccinations:

"Therefore, estimation of influenza-associated deaths or hospitalizations often relies on statistical modeling rather than on direct measurement."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4605410/

But I could send you an equal number of links that show it’s nothing like 30 a year. Show me a link that isn’t from Thailand to say it’s 30. I simply don’t believe this number as it has no foundation based on basic logic alone. It may well be the categorisation is so different from international norms, that they only count 30. But it’s simply not true and no more accurate than the circa 7,000-8,000 Covid cases they quote each day. 
 

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0046958020982925

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4605410/

 

 

 

[ken]

probably main issue is what happens after declaring endemic? eg allow all not vaccinated foreign tourists to come even from high risk countries? and not exert any control again even if covid cases surge to alarming level? sometimes it is difficult for us layman to understand govt logic behind policy, eg 90 day address report still required from most visa holders here but there is exemption for new visa created for policy for certain class of wealthy expats, is the different treatment mainly based on income level? actually it is more effective to track each person's whereabout based on registered mobile phone number? a smart city can think about this?

[RampantRabbit]

7 hours ago, DiJoDavO said:

it's because they forced people to do very unhealthy things. 

I  had the  full consent of the dog  Ill  have you  know!!

[Stonker]

 

1 hour ago, Soidog said:

But I could send you an equal number of links that show it’s nothing like 30 a year. Show me a link that isn’t from Thailand to say it’s 30. I simply don’t believe this number as it has no foundation based on basic logic alone. It may well be the categorisation is so different from international norms, that they only count 30. But it’s simply not true and no more accurate than the circa 7,000-8,000 Covid cases they quote each day. 
 

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0046958020982925

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4605410/

Flu is endemic, world-wide - Covid isn't, it's pandemic.   It's perfectly valid to compare the two as part of declaring Covid endemic rather than pandemic, but what you're saying simply has no basis in any sort of documented facts about Thailand.

1 hour ago, Soidog said:

But I could send you an equal number of links that show it’s nothing like 30 a year.

So you say repeatedly, but you never do!

All you cite are links based on Western stats, primarily from the US, "modeled" or "extrapolated" for Thailand.

On the other hand, I've given you specifics from the Thai Department of Disease Control and Ministry of Public Health and all you've done is dismiss them because they're "from Thailand".

Where else are the stats on Thailand going to come from, official or unofficial?

Neither of your links are based on any known numbers, but purely on stats from 33 countries of which only two are in SEA:

"However, these estimates were based on data collected from 33 contributing countries (two in Southeast Asia) extrapolated to countries that had limited to no information available from vital records and viral surveillance making these results reliant on extrapolation".

All your links are always based on the same set of stats, which are largely from Western countries and the USA, completely ignoring the differences and blindly assuming that 'one size fits all'.

https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12879-021-06360-9

1 hour ago, Soidog said:

 I simply don’t believe this number as it has no foundation based on basic logic alone. It may well be the categorisation is so different from international norms, that they only count 30. But it’s simply not true and no more accurate than the circa 7,000-8,000 Covid cases they quote each day. 

It's directly comparable to those elsewhere in the region, in Malaysia, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam where there were ten deaths from flu in 2019.

https://vietnamnews.vn/society/570323/health-ministry-attempts-to-calm-flu-fears.html

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/280969254_The_burden_of_human_influenza_in_Malaysia

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6692578/

Your "logic" appears to be that as they're all Asian so they must be "simply not true" as what happens in the West must also happen in South East Asia, even though the climate and other variables are completely different

Ho hummm .....

 

 

 

[Stonker]

1 hour ago, ken said:

probably main issue is what happens after declaring endemic?

Such as stopping giving any financial support, isolation and quarantine, and possibly even vaccines as the Head of the Thai Red Cross has recently suggested may be on the cards.

 

In his Facebook post today, in response to the National Communicable Disease Committee’s approval yesterday of the criteria which must be met before COVID-19 can be declared to be an endemic disease in Thailand, he raised the following questions:

• Will COVID-19 no longer be treated as dangerous infectious disease?
• Is a screening and isolation process still needed?
• Is there still a need to report infection updates?
• If someone needs treatment, will they have to use their Gold Card to apply for it?
• Will there be compensation for businesses affected by COVID-19?
• Will people taking COVID-19 tests have to pay for them?
• Can people still claim compensation from the National Health Security Office (NHSO) for any undesirable side effects from vaccines as they are only for emergency use?

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/questions-raised-over-plan-to-categorise-covid-19-as-endemic-in-thailand/

[Stonker]

4 hours ago, DiJoDavO said:

Ok, then I dare you to sit in your room, staring at your phone for 24/7, no exercise, close your windows and curtains, eat only McDonald's and sugar. Let's see how that shitty lifestyle won't affect you

Completely untrue... I thought that last time I was just joking, saying that whenever I say water is wet, you would argue against it. But I wasn't so wrong with that joke.

Why would I ?

There's never been any such requirement or recommendation here, even if I was clinically extremely vulnerable. 

What you're saying simply has no connection with reality here, and your claim that "And if you are a normal healthy person, you'll beat Covid in no time" is just 100% wrong.

[ninja]

20 hours ago, Fundok said:

I am more the fact-oriented type of guy and the fact is, that once in Thailand no one cares if you habe been vaccinated and how often.

yeah baby !   and i sure hope it continues that way .   (though it sure does appear that mask wearing has definitely caught on with the lone early morning walkers.   you never know when a covid will come running out of the trees and grab you )

[DiJoDavO]

13 hours ago, Stonker said:

Why would I ?

There's never been any such requirement or recommendation here, even if I was clinically extremely vulnerable. 

What you're saying simply has no connection with reality here, and your claim that "And if you are a normal healthy person, you'll beat Covid in no time" is just 100% wrong.

I'm speechless.... 

[Soidog]

17 hours ago, Stonker said:

Flu is endemic, world-wide - Covid isn't, it's pandemic.   It's perfectly valid to compare the two as part of declaring Covid endemic rather than pandemic, but what you're saying simply has no basis in any sort of documented facts about Thailand.

So you say repeatedly, but you never do!

All you cite are links based on Western stats, primarily from the US, "modeled" or "extrapolated" for Thailand.

On the other hand, I've given you specifics from the Thai Department of Disease Control and Ministry of Public Health and all you've done is dismiss them because they're "from Thailand".

Where else are the stats on Thailand going to come from, official or unofficial?

Neither of your links are based on any known numbers, but purely on stats from 33 countries of which only two are in SEA:

"However, these estimates were based on data collected from 33 contributing countries (two in Southeast Asia) extrapolated to countries that had limited to no information available from vital records and viral surveillance making these results reliant on extrapolation".

All your links are always based on the same set of stats, which are largely from Western countries and the USA, completely ignoring the differences and blindly assuming that 'one size fits all'.

https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12879-021-06360-9

It's directly comparable to those elsewhere in the region, in Malaysia, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam where there were ten deaths from flu in 2019.

https://vietnamnews.vn/society/570323/health-ministry-attempts-to-calm-flu-fears.html

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/280969254_The_burden_of_human_influenza_in_Malaysia

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6692578/

Your "logic" appears to be that as they're all Asian so they must be "simply not true" as what happens in the West must also happen in South East Asia, even though the climate and other variables are completely different

Ho hummm .....

Total denial as usual. The links I sent are from reputable and peer reviewed sources. Not from sources who’s mindset is based on showing and promoting how good they are. What possible reason and motives would the WHO and others have for inflating figures. The reports I sent were based on in country studies and analysis of Thai deaths. They of course used samples as it’s simply not possible to verify every death and the sample approach is statistically viable.
 

As for you usual assertion that my comments have some racist undertone  then I’m afraid you are wrong again. I would readily accept data from Japan, Malaysia and South Korea. I wouldn’t blindly accept it from other SE Asian countries as they simply don’t have the infrastructure or independent oversight. I wouldn’t accept data from China for the same politically motivated concerns. 
 

We could debate reports and sources of data until the cows come home. However, basic common sense tells you that there is no way a country with 67 million people would have only 30 deaths from influenza. Utterly ridiculous. 
 

Just to add. Another Asian country who’s figures I do trust and has a similar climate to Thailand is Singapore. It reports an average 588 annual deaths per year. Singapore has less than 10% of the population of Thailand  I’ll let you do the maths!