News Forum - Thailand will declare Covid-19 endemic, whether WHO agrees or not

[Stonker]

2 hours ago, Lawyers_Guns_and_Money said:

Numbers can be manipulated. Especially if they redefine a covid death to be "of covid" instead of "with covid". So for example if someone with COPD dies with covid. The cause is most likely the COPD, so it isn't a covid death.

But which countries, IF ANY, have "redefine[d] a covid death to be "of covid" instead of "with covid" or vice-versa?

Thailand never has.

The UK never has, whether you take the stats from the UK ONS or the UKHSA.

Nor have the EU or the USA.

So what countries, specifically, have done as you suggest they may have?

... or is this just another misleading myth?

[Stonker]

4 hours ago, Fundok said:

... Maybe that's only me, but I can't understand the rationale behind this.

What I can't understand is why anyone would be in a rush to say that their country has reduced Covid-19 from a pandemic to mere endemic apart from very blinkered one-upmanship.

While there's no prize, and only medical types will understand the difference, in practical terms it means that the vaccine and treatment manufacturers' offer to sell vaccines and treatments at cost price is over and they can charge whatever they like.

Why would anyone deliberately want to pay billions of dollars more ?

[think-and-ask]

p(L)andemic is over when most people, worldwide know, thaat plan ? looks so.
most, tested people, are not any sick, weeks, before and after, test. 

Edited January 29 by Smithydog
Deleted misleading and incorrect assumption

[Lawyers_Guns_and_Money]

16 minutes ago, Stonker said:

But which countries, IF ANY, have "redefine[d] a covid death to be "of covid" instead of "with covid" or vice-versa?

Thailand never has.

The UK never has, whether you take the stats from the UK ONS or the UKHSA.

Nor have the EU or the USA.

So what countries, specifically, have done as you suggest they may have?

... or is this just another misleading myth?

Go back and read what I wrote before you put words in my mouth. I simply stated that they could redefine what is considered a covid death for the purpose of meeting the goal. I NEVER stated that any country has done that. Now having said that, I believe that in the next few months we are going to see more conversation about what is considered a covid death and how those numbers are tracked. Not sure why you felt the need to jump all over me on this since I was simply illustrating that the numbers can be achieved depending on how they want to look at them.

Edited January 27 by Lawyers_Guns_and_Money
Typo

[Stonker]

1 hour ago, MrNovax said:

we evidently have a difference of opinion on "pretty damn good" so ill set that aside.

Well, my opinion's supported by fact.

The requirement for the vaccine was 51% protection - not sterile immunity.

The 'big three' give around 95%+ protection with the original dosage against original variants and 75%+ against Omicron with a booster.

If you ask for 51% protection and you get 95%+, and 75% against then unknown variants, that's "pretty damned good" by any rational measure.

[Stonker]

53 minutes ago, Lawyers_Guns_and_Money said:

Go back and read what I wrote before you put words in my mouth. I simply stated that they could redefine what is considered a covid death for the purpose of meeting the goal. I NEVER stated that any country has done that. Now having said that, I believe that in the next few months we are going to see more conversation about what is considered a covid death and how those numbers are tracked. Not sure why you felt the need to jump all over me on this since I was simply illustrating that the numbers can be achieved depending on how they want to look at them.

"They", whoever "they" are, could re-define a Covid death as someone who's had a drink of water within 28 days of death, but nobody has any more than they've done what you said they could.

The numbers simply reflect what's shown on the death certificates as a cause of death, regardless of how much some may suggest that's not the case. 

[Vince]

1 hour ago, Stonker said:

What I can't understand is why anyone would be in a rush to say that their country has reduced Covid-19 from a pandemic to mere endemic apart from very blinkered one-upmanship.

While there's no prize, and only medical types will understand the difference, in practical terms it means that the vaccine and treatment manufacturers' offer to sell vaccines and treatments at cost price is over and they can charge whatever they like.

Why would anyone deliberately want to pay billions of dollars more ?

Khun @StonkerI'm sure you're right but you're the only person I've heard this from.

Can you please provide a source for this? Thanks!

 

[Stonker]

4 minutes ago, Vince said:

Khun @StonkerI'm sure you're right but you're the only person I've heard this from.

Can you please provide a source for this? Thanks!

Sure.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/pfizer-eyes-higher-covid-19-vaccine-prices-after-pandemic-exec-analyst

Do a google on pricing for any vaccine such as Pfizer, Moderna and AZ or any treatment such as Molnupiravir and you'll see that the self-imposed price pegging for all of them was set from the start as ONLY applying during the pandemic, not once it was downgraded.

[Lawyers_Guns_and_Money]

30 minutes ago, Stonker said:

"They", whoever "they" are, could re-define a Covid death as someone who's had a drink of water within 28 days of death, but nobody has any more than they've done what you said they could.

The numbers simply reflect what's shown on the death certificates as a cause of death, regardless of how much some may suggest that's not the case. 

Take a breath bro

[Vince]

3 minutes ago, Stonker said:

Sure.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/pfizer-eyes-higher-covid-19-vaccine-prices-after-pandemic-exec-analyst

Do a google on pricing for any vaccine such as Pfizer, Moderna and AZ or any treatment such as Molnupiravir and you'll see that the self-imposed price pegging for all of them was set from the start as ONLY applying during the pandemic, not once it was downgraded.

Excellent  

I was curious about AZ & J&J but it's alluded to as well 

"The drugmaker isn’t alone in viewing vaccine pricing differently during the pandemic and afterward. Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca have each pledged to sell their vaccines on not-for-profit basis during the pandemic."

But wouldn't this be balanced against the almost certain reduction in demand? 

Boosters and vaxx would be targeted to high risk groups - the old, health care workers, the frail. Mass requirements are likely to see some resistance I think. 

And Sinovac/Sinopharm/Sputnik V are likely not to change in price...? 

Plus generics might come into play. 

Everyone isn't going to need Pfizer™

[Stonker]

15 minutes ago, Vince said:

Khun @StonkerI'm sure you're right but you're the only person I've heard this from.

Can you please provide a source for this? Thanks!

Although it doesn't apply to Thailand, the same thing applies to 'poorer' countries allowed to produce their own generic versions of the vaccines and treatments, where they don't pay for any technology transfer or licencing - as soon as the pandemic's over, so are the free licences.

[Vince]

7 minutes ago, Stonker said:

Although it doesn't apply to Thailand, the same thing applies to 'poorer' countries allowed to produce their own generic versions of the vaccines and treatments, where they don't pay for any technology transfer or licencing - as soon as the pandemic's over, so are the free licences.

Indeed, seems you are likely right:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/astrazeneca-could-price-poor-out-of-covid-vaccine-after-pandemic-warns-trial-volunteer_n_5f116a5bc5b619afc4000dca

But Id again think that no one is going to choose to get a booster unless they're high risk or required. 

And without a pandemic, blanket requirements will stop. Some people might have to (e.g. health care, transportation) but Khun Average Joe won't, just to cut bamboo or work at home on a computer.

So big reduction in demand.

[Stonker]

5 minutes ago, Vince said:

Excellent  

I was curious about AZ & J&J but it's alluded to as well 

"The drugmaker isn’t alone in viewing vaccine pricing differently during the pandemic and afterward. Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca have each pledged to sell their vaccines on not-for-profit basis during the pandemic."

But wouldn't this be balanced against the almost certain reduction in demand? 

Boosters and vaxx would be targeted to high risk groups - the old, health care workers, the frail. Mass requirements are likely to see some resistance I think. 

And Sinovac/Sinopharm/Sputnik V are likely not to change in price...? 

Plus generics might come into play. 

Everyone isn't going to need Pfizer™

It's not just about countries being able to carry on producing and ignoring big pharma asking for higher fees, as it's not that simple.

First, developments will mean that as vaccines become better and more effective so the 'old recipes' that need constant boosters will be out of date and no-one will want them when they can get something better.

... and secondly, a lot of the local manufacturers are totally dependent on the parent companies to supply the 'ingredients' anyway as they can't be sourced independently, so unless they pay up the supply chain stops and they can't produce.

Countries aren't just trying to develop their own vaccines out of national pride, but because they'll have to pay for them.

[Stonker]

1 minute ago, Vince said:

And without a pandemic, blanket requirements will stop. Some people might have to (e.g. health care, transportation) but Khun Average Joe won't, just to cut bamboo or work at home on a computer.

So big reduction in demand.

It all depends if they mind about the risk of dying or being unable to cut bamboo or work at home - and that'll depend on variants, where a lot of people are counting their chickens before they're hatched.

[Vince]

16 minutes ago, Stonker said:

It all depends if they mind about the risk of dying or being unable to cut bamboo or work at home - and that'll depend on variants, where a lot of people are counting their chickens before they're hatched.

You can count your price increased vaccine chickens and variant death chickens and I'll count my COVID is over chickens and we'll split the difference on all our unhatched eggs. 

Cheers! COVID is over! 

[Alavan]

Pandemie or endemic, I don’t care. What about rules to enter and stay in Thailand?

[ace035]

Who cares about the freakin endemic? As long as the Thai government kept putting more rules and restrictions to tourists on entering Thailand and even less COVID-19 cases before, it will never stop. A Thai national can enter U.S or U.K with no restrictions at all very easily than us as a regular tourists on going to Thailand.

[Vince]

11 hours ago, Alavan said:

Pandemie or endemic, I don’t care. What about rules to enter and stay in Thailand?

Endemic should ease entry rules. That's my guess. See you in Thailand, soon! 

 

[Fanta]

I’m so glad that there will be no variants to worry about after Omicron. And that Thailand knows better than the WHO as to what constitutes a pandemic /s  This government and their constant deflections  just does my head in. The increase in pork prices was caused by hoarding, not the African swine flu and consequent high breeding pig mortality rates. And now Covid has become just too inconvenient & expensive so rather than stick to the plan and immunize the bejesus out of everyone, they’ll declare it endemic and blame it on the foreigners for spreading the virus and hyping up the risk. When the shit hits the fan, they stand behind it and blame you for standing in front of it. 

[vvdb.fr]

I think it makes sense to plan for the aftermath.

Thailand wants to do it alone...it's a big problem. the epidemic does not settle in Thailand, it cannot be explained.

to say that the problem is behind us, you have to be able to deal with a serious epidemic wave (nasty and contagious variant Omicron+Delta combined) with rationality.

there is health monitoring, testing capacity, contact tracing, isolation...

Drugs exist in the repositioning process like Prozac, Anakinra...

the Italians are highlighting a biological marker for severe cases of covid with HERV-W in plasma-soluble form... a fast and inexpensive test remains to be set up.

2022 it's the end.

 

Edited January 28 by vvdb.fr
Add

[RampantRabbit]

11 hours ago, Vince said:

Maybe just have faith in the final resolution and not second guess every detail? 

Mistakes have been made - even in the United States and Britain if you can believe it! I know, incredible! - and we're just working out the end of Covid. 

The End! 

It's over! 

i dont see the fat  lady singing.............maybe due to obesity covid  killed  her....I  apologise for using the  word  fat  which may  offend of  slightly larger  build  than normal people, I  apologise to  normal  people for not making them special I apologise to covid for not  letting it have its rights protected and mass culling it I  apologise to the deaf for not hearing the fat  lady sing I  apologise to using the word  deaf when I should  say hard of  hearing...could be worse, I could be a Thai  apologist

Edited January 28 by RampantRabbit

[Chaimai]

2 hours ago, DiJoDavO said:

I've been saying this a year ago and was called a conspiracy theorist. Whatever comes out now, you would've been called a conspiracy theorist for if you mentioned that a year ago. Even their God Fauci is talking stuff now which was conspiracy back then

 

 

Another one who turns a blind eye to the evidence.

 

Conspiracy theorists or not, the numbers at my crematorium are up by 30%

[Bluesofa]

3 minutes ago, Chaimai said:

Another one who turns a blind eye to the evidence.

Conspiracy theorists or not, the numbers at my crematorium are up by 30%

I can't imagine even knowing the numbers of cremations where I live, whether they increased or decreased.

I just asked my wife about temple cremations. She said the one nearest us doesn't have an oven, but probably 90% of temples do.

[palooka]

12 hours ago, Fundok said:

 Maybe that's only me, but I can't understand the rationale behind this.

You're not alone, sure even the Thai Govt don't understand the rationale.

[Soidog]

9 hours ago, Stonker said:

There are on average 30 deaths from flu a year in Thailand -that's thirty, not 44,000.

Sorry @Stonkerbut we’ve had this conversation before. I simply don’t know why you chose to believe the figure of 30, when many other independent scientific reports suggest figures of 3,000-4,000 fatalities a year from influenza alone in Thailand. In fact the economic burden of influenza is seen as relatively high for a middle income country, mainly driven by the lack of vaccination in the elderly. To believe 30, other than during the Covid pandemic, is simply stretching things too much. It’s not 44,000 as quoted, but it’s certainly not 30 either.