Thailand’s export forecast for 2023 suggests 1% growth due to China’s economic recovery

Thailand’s exports are predicted to experience a 1% increase in 2023, with a more significant improvement anticipated later in the year due to the recovery of China’s economy, according to the Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC). In a news conference, council chairman Chaichan Chareonsuk stated that although exports faced a downturn in the first quarter, a resurgence is predicted for the remaining months.

Chaichan Chareonsuk noted that the slower contraction of shipments expected in the second quarter is likely to improve during the second half of the year, with increased demand from key markets and China’s economic recovery being major driving factors. He expressed optimism for specific products such as food, agriculture, and vehicles, which are expected to continue performing well.

Furthermore, the chairman reported that the total exports in US dollars for the first quarter surpassed expectations, indicating that the worst is behind them. The January-March exports experienced a 4.5% decline in comparison to last year, while the TNSC had initially forecast a 10% reduction. For the second quarter, the group expects a 2.7% yearly decline compared to the previously predicted 4.7% decrease.

The upcoming quarters of 2023 also hold promise, with the TNSC predicting that exports will witness a 0.6% increase in the third quarter and a significant 12% jump in the fourth quarter compared to the previous year. Chaichan Chareonsuk also pointed to the favourable and stable exchange rate of the baht as a contributing factor to the nation’s exporting potential. With the baht trading at around 34.23 per US dollar, he claims that it holds a relatively balanced position compared to the currencies of trading partners and competitors.

However, the TNSC did acknowledge certain global uncertainties, high stockpiles, and growing production costs as potentially detrimental factors for trade. In contrast, The Bank of Thailand forecast a 0.7% decline in exports for the entirety of 2023, reported Bangkok Post.